Ukraine April 2021

Status
Not open for further replies.

Obreid

Power Poster
Thank God .
Russia I believe has already established a lot of their main trade payments via gold so swift holds much less of a bite to those that “matter” in Russia.
If I were Putin and his cronies after the Panama Papers I would have divested as much as I could.
ukrainan situation is well beyond sanctions at this point.
 

MichaelH

Member
I am not sure our political dialogue in America is at the point of asking questions like this, but there is an interesting two level game component here. Biden is clearly attempting to position this administration as "anti-Russia" or at least "anti-Putin" and effectively so. If he backs down and Ukraine makes any significant concessions, I don't think anyone could objectively see that position as credible. I do not think most people in America can think in those sorts of terms now, so it might not matter to the administration. The American left isn't going to say "wait a minute, we were sold a bill of goods". But it is interesting to consider whether the Putin regime might think that embarrassment to the administration is valuable to them and how far they might go to get it. And it's also interesting to consider that in terms of the credibility of the administration in eastern Europe vs. the domestic picture.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
That is how Russia is going to interpret it.
It’s possible, on the surface it looks that way. But we don’t know what was on those transport planes or other assets in play.
US surface vessels in the Black Sea have a built in disadvantage and really only provide a platform for monitoring.
heck it could have been decided get our redundant assets out of there before it gets hot.
Just mentioning it as a counter view.
I could be all wet with it.
 

JPod

Member
Things are looking dicey for the Ukrainians. But we've all been through this rodeo before with other events, look where those went. I still place my bets on the SCS being the one that get things rolling.
 

JPod

Member
Could the SCS situation spiral into Russia launching its ICBMS though?
If the US and China get into it over there, the threat level goes up significantly for every geographic region, every country, every person. Who knows what will happen during and after the fact. I've written this quite a few times on different places: the US and China will go to war eventually IF either country stays on the current path. The only way for it to not happen in my opinion: 1. The US submits to Chinese dominance and we have a new world leader or 2. China abandons it's attempts to be the world leader.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
If the US and China get into it over there, the threat level goes up significantly for every geographic region, every country, every person. Who knows what will happen during and after the fact. I've written this quite a few times on different places: the US and China will go to war eventually IF either country stays on the current path. The only way for it to not happen in my opinion: 1. The US submits to Chinese dominance and we have a new world leader or 2. China abandons it's attempts to be the world leader.
Taken separately both will probably follow predictable course. SCS is probably more volatile that Ukraine as far as escalation is concerned.
man escalating war is not profitable to anyone. But it always comes back to the one who has their back to the wall and nothing to lose.
China has more to lose than Russia right now but with them it is more difficult to know what that point might be.
mid they both escalated at same time.

Ask yourself this question, who’s back is easier to break Russia China or US.??
Or are either of the three in that precarious of a position?
 
Last edited:

Delta Echo 26

New member
While it is unlikely that we will be militarily engaged in conflicts with both China and Russia at the same time, there is still that possiblity. Are we in a postion to fight on two fronts like we did in WWII? IMO I don't believe that we are.
 
B

Bob

Guest
Could the SCS situation spiral into Russia launching its ICBMS though?
Really what is the point of any defence spending and the massive need to have a military might that might save some country from being invaded .
Trillions of dollars are spend each year by countries seeking technology to destroy each other when in fact if a country invades another do you really think the rest of the world will continue trade with the invading country ?
By my way of thinking we might as well be investing in sticks and stones as that is what would happen in a full blown war
Someone invades ...a counter action is started each miltary country trying to win over the other with bigger and more destructive weapons until eventually they wipe out the country they are invading and probably themselves eventually .
I can go outside today and find a stick seems the way the pollies are heading we will all need a stronger stick due to politicians greed and corruption..
War will make lots of people lose and will never bring out a winner
Spend the money on your citizens and let the world live in peace and create less stress for everyone .
Thats my thoughts but hey I am only one person .
 

ChinPower

Member
It's more efficient to scare the enemy into doing what you want then going in and forcing the issue, especially since Russia will face more sanctions if they actually move in. Hence why they are posturing rather than rolling in.

Also, it is a signal to NATO to keep out, otherwise they will face a rather large Russian force. And NATO has no interest in militarily defending Ukraine at this point. They know Crimea is lost. They ain't getting it back. So what is the point of bloodshed?

So there are multiple reasons why Russia is mounting this force but not doing anything with it at the moment.

Will they? If Ukraine does, Russia has to respond. But if Ukraine just blusters, the Mission Accomplished as far as Russia is concerned.
There is a general war rule that offensive side must have a 3 to 1 advantage. Ukrainian forces have a 250.000 count (according to Intel), while breakaway regions have around 40.000 to 50.000 in total, which is not enough to defend. Russian troops are around 100.000 according to the latest reports, which makes is enough for defence combined with breakaway regions, but not enough to actually make an all-scale offence, only effective counter-attack up to enemy defence lines. If we actually see at least a 300.000 to 400.000 force, which is a huge pile of troops, that would be a sign.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top