Ukraine April 2021

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bartok

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Putin is pissed that Ukraine cut off all the water to Crimea and they have no short term solutions other than to go turn on the taps themselves. He lost all credibility with Armenia.
I didn't know that! In this case I think that Russian intervention is pretty sure, if Ukraine doesn't open the taps very very soon.

Unless the sanctions actually have like serious bite (for once) and the Russian Federation gets removed from SWIFT. They wouldn't like that much. You think they'd react militarily/asymmetrical to that?
It's hard to respond, but this idea was suggested in 2014-2015. I crearly remember that, at that time, Russia said that It would consider the removal from SWIFT as a declaration of war. I don't know if was a bluff, but there was no more talk about that.

There is a general war rule that offensive side must have a 3 to 1 advantage. Ukrainian forces have a 250.000 count (according to Intel), while breakaway regions have around 40.000 to 50.000 in total, which is not enough to defend. Russian troops are around 100.000 according to the latest reports, which makes is enough for defence combined with breakaway regions, but not enough to actually make an all-scale offence, only effective counter-attack up to enemy defence lines. If we actually see at least a 300.000 to 400.000 force, which is a huge pile of troops, that would be a sign.

the 3 to 1 rule is intended to be applied between 2 armies pretty equal in training and technolgy. Russia is greater than Ukraine in all these features. Furthermore, if Russia want to do a large offensive, I think that the goal is not to destroy Ukraine, but to reach the key points to take control of the nation, as the parliement for example: it is not "compulsory" to kill all the poors 250.000 Ukranian soldiers. Finally, is likely that Ukranian army will completely disperse if Russia attacks.
 

Silent

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JUST IN - Washington to pay a price for the new sanctions and are fully responsible for it, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry says.

 

Silent

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US imposes new sanctions against Russia, expels ten diplomats & targets national debt in move Moscow may view as major escalation​


US President Joe Biden signed a decree on Thursday imposing a new round of sanctions on Russia. They target more than 30 individuals and organizations. The White House also moved to expel nearly a dozen of Moscow’s diplomats
The move, which the White House says is in response to alleged interference by Moscow in the 2020 US presidential election, will see American companies banned from directly buying shares in Russia’s national debt. The Kremlin has consistently denied that it made any attempt to meddle in the contest, in which Biden defeated former President Donald Trump.
Earlier this month, the country’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin warned that the US may resort to attacking bonds as part of “a deliberate calculation to create a toxic atmosphere around Russian securities in order to reduce their investment potential.” He added that Moscow was already working to create a battle plan to limit the effect such sanctions would have on the economy.

 

Silent

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Update: Congress informed by President Biden that he's declaring a national emergency with respect to the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States posed by specified harmful foreign activities of Russia.

 
A

Aid2

Guest
I think this website should go to DEFCON 4 at present. There is no military engagement just yet however there is little sign of diplomacy happening.
 

Silent

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Concerning. State-controlled RT News has been told to alert Russians to 'prepare for inevitable war' between Russia & the US, with Putin testing the US response. US warships already deployed, & Ukraine claims Russia are preparing to deploy Nukes.

 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I have one UNCONFIRMED report of Russia issuing an ultimatum to the US ambassador for NATO to cease all operations in Ukraine within six days or Russia will invade Ukraine. The source is questionable and I have been unable to find it anywhere else. Posting only because I would like to confirm it one way or the other.
 

ChinPower

Member
I didn't know that! In this case I think that Russian intervention is pretty sure, if Ukraine doesn't open the taps very very soon.
This has been for a while and there are some water pipes already in construction. Crimea has alternative water supply sources, not enough, but it is not a case when they have no water. Since situation has been like this for a while I don't see it as dire.
It's hard to respond, but this idea was suggested in 2014-2015. I crearly remember that, at that time, Russia said that It would consider the removal from SWIFT as a declaration of war. I don't know if was a bluff, but there was no more talk about that.
Pretty much everyone here expects SWIFT removal to happen at some point. Won't be a surprise.
the 3 to 1 rule is intended to be applied between 2 armies pretty equal in training and technolgy. Russia is greater than Ukraine in all these features. Furthermore, if Russia want to do a large offensive, I think that the goal is not to destroy Ukraine, but to reach the key points to take control of the nation, as the parliement for example: it is not "compulsory" to kill all the poors 250.000 Ukranian soldiers. Finally, is likely that Ukranian army will completely disperse if Russia attacks.
Yes, quality does matter, but when we talk about two armies that used to be one not that long ago, with a lot of similar equipment and with Ukraine being supplied by US, it is not THAT different.
 

Silent

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Moscow holds emergency talks with US over fighting in Donbass as Ukraine says NATO exercises will train troops for war with Russia​


Amid fears of worsening clashes in eastern Ukraine, Russian and American diplomats have held unscheduled bilateral talks in an effort to forestall an all-out conflict, which Moscow has warned could spell disaster for the region.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters on Tuesday that “we have had contact with the US administration on the situation in the Donbass, and we have exhaustively explained to their side what is happening.” He added that Western rhetoric over Ukraine is striking an increasingly belligerent tone, and that “Washington should be concerned about the consequences of this coordinated policy.”

The Kremlin has denied that troop movements in western Russia are a preparation for war, with press secretary Dmitry Peskov saying that the country’s army “moves around Russia in whatever direction it considers necessary to ensure the security of our country.” He added that the deployments are within the context of “increased activity of the armed forces of NATO countries, other associations, individual countries.”

Over the weekend, Ukraine’s representative in talks over the future of Donbass said that the US-led military bloc was preparing itself for a potential conflict with Russia. “A large-scale NATO exercise has begun, called DefenderEurope 2021,” Aleksey Arestovich said, adding that “this basically translates to Defend Europe.” The envoy said that the drills will focus on areas “from the waters of the Baltic to the Black Sea, to put it bluntly, armed confrontation with Russia.”

 

Silent

Power Poster
JUST IN - Russia is closing the strategic Kerch Strait in the Black Sea for warships and state ships of foreign countries from next week until October 2021, closing off the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk to traffic (Interfax Ukraine)

https://twitter.com/disclosetv

 
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