Ukraine April 2021

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rudemarine

Power Poster
it would be interesting to know to what extent the alternative water supply sources can provide Crimea. Considering that about 90% of water use is for farming, but the provision of the 10% of drinking water came first for obvious reasons, if we can verify if drinking water is rationed (even if people is not dieing for thirst), we can then deduce that situation is pretty tragic because that would be mean Crimean farming is colapsing.
They have one 6 inch flex pipe running across from Russia feeding the entirety of Crimea. The massive holding pond they had for reserve is now completely dry. Residences are collecting rain water to drink and bathe in yet they wouldn't blame Russia for the mess in front of the cameras, only Ukraine. They just said its an inconvenience but we will get through it lol. The recent moves of Amphibious landing craft hints that Russia is going to make a push in from the sea on the west side of Crimea or at least act like they are to seize the canals and steal another large chunk of Ukraine in the south so they cant cut off the water or power anymore to Crimea or Donbass if they wanted too. Below is the canal system that comes from the Deniper River system. Russia will need to seize it all the way up past the second Hydro-electric station that feeds Donbass.


 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Wait a minute, they're preparing for military action in Kiev that would require their citizens to seek shelter???
Last time they did have BM-30 Smerch missiles impacting around the outskirts of the city so it is a wise idea. No telling if Russia would bomb them from the air if they wanted to take out the leadership or just the Command & control of the military.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Ukrainian view of the water problem in Crimea. I know it’s slanted, no apologies or defense.
if someone has a countering source that sheds light it would be useful.
they blame much of the problem on Russian mishandling and increase in Russian population and vacationers. (Sounds weak)
Does stress increasing strain on the natural water supply in Crimea.
Made the observation they see no reason in opening water flow back to Crimea because it’s working.
It’s reasonable to assume this very well could be the crux of the matter for Russia.

 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Ukrainian view of the water problem in Crimea. I know it’s slanted, no apologies or defense.
if someone has a countering source that sheds light it would be useful.
they blame much of the problem on Russian mishandling and increase in Russian population and vacationers. (Sounds weak)
Does stress increasing strain on the natural water supply in Crimea.
Made the observation they see no reason in opening water flow back to Crimea because it’s working.
It’s reasonable to assume this very well could be the crux of the matter for Russia.


Here is a full picture of the more recent mess. Russia has plans to fix it by 2024 lol. They will die of thirst before that. Start at 6 minutes in so you don't get bored. He talks of them gathering rain water and most of the north and north east not getting much at all due to the lack of rain. It has only gotten worse since your article was wrote last year and I cant find the news video I saw showing the 6 inch pipe that was supplying the island from the new bridge. Ukraine should fly a few flankers on the deck and put a few missiles or bombs on that bridge to watch Putin have a heart attack.

 
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Patrick

Guest
What is to stop Ukraine from destroying the plants altogether before they retreat? If Russia can't blitzkrieg their way to the objectives fast enough, they won't be able to prevent sabotage.
 

TruthandJustice

Well-known member
What is to stop Ukraine from simply destroying the hydro plants before retreating? If Russia can't blitzkrieg their way to the objective fast enough then they won't be able to prevent sabotage. I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine hasn't already wired the plants with explosives along with any strategic bridges.
 

Ben Dhyani

Active member
Fwiw, I read this on some forum discussing the Ukraine situation, it seems to have some logic to it so I thought I pass it by you folk for a smell test.

" Then there is this: the US has informed the Turkish authorities that they will not send two USN ships into the Black Sea. This is politically a good sign, but in military terms, this is what the US should be doing if they were preparing for war. Why? Because any USN ship in the Black Sea at the moment of the initiation of a conflict would be sunk withing minutes: not only do the Russians have formidable missiles – Bal and Bastion – they had SIX advanced diesel-electric submarines of the 636.3 class ready to “greet” them. Keep in mind that engaging submarines without air cover is another form of collective suicide."
 

Kushan

Member
Fwiw, I read this on some forum discussing the Ukraine situation, it seems to have some logic to it so I thought I pass it by you folk for a smell test.

" Then there is this: the US has informed the Turkish authorities that they will not send two USN ships into the Black Sea. This is politically a good sign, but in military terms, this is what the US should be doing if they were preparing for war. Why? Because any USN ship in the Black Sea at the moment of the initiation of a conflict would be sunk withing minutes: not only do the Russians have formidable missiles – Bal and Bastion – they had SIX advanced diesel-electric submarines of the 636.3 class ready to “greet” them. Keep in mind that engaging submarines without air cover is another form of collective suicide."
Its also a good idea to not send them into the Black Sea to just avoid getting caught in the cross fire or further provoking Russia. What this fails to considers, if the US was preparing for war there would be more then two destroyers on the way to the area and so far there's no sign of that happening.

As I've said a few pages back, Ike wouldn't have passed south through Suez last week or would now be on the way back north and the ready brigade from the 82nd AB and Stryker Brigades would be deploying and they're not.

First portion of Defender Europe 21 is underway. It involves moving equipment from CONUS to Europe. Second portion begins later this month or early May, and that'll involve some troops heading over. So far anyway, despite Russian claims otherwise, there are no signs of any of that equipment deploying further east then the Balkans / central Europe where the bulk of Defender Europe 21 will be taking place.
 
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Bappy

Guest
Don't worry we here in Defconwarningsystem will stay at Defcon 5 until hell will freeze.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Don't worry we here in Defconwarningsystem will stay at Defcon 5 until hell will freeze.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
You are correct. Our extensive analysis has indicated that temperatures below 0° Celsius in Hell do not present any imminent nuclear threats on Earth or in Heaven. Our deductions are based on the fact that - to our knowledge - Hell has not yet acquired nuclear weapons. However, we do continue to monitor the situation in Hell through our usual OSINT sources and will advise the public of any change in the DEFCON alert level should we discover that Satan does in fact possess a nuclear weapon, regardless of subfreezing temperatures.
 

Silent

Power Poster
Putin has convened Russian Security Council, discussed military construction

 

Silent

Power Poster
Don't worry we here in Defconwarningsystem will stay at Defcon 5 until hell will freeze.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'm not worry, but I believe that the military defecconlevel used here are not the appropriate method.
This site has a different intention, which is OK, but to maintain military Level Defcon 5 in this situation is difficult to convey.
I even believe that the US military is based on tensions (Israel / Iran - USA / China, - USA / Russia) on DEF 3.
You would need another evaluation system.

Just my opinion
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I'm not worry, but I believe that the military defecconlevel used here are not the appropriate method.
This site has a different intention, which is OK, but to maintain military Level Defcon 5 in this situation is difficult to convey.
I even believe that the US military is based on tensions (Israel / Iran - USA / China, - USA / Russia) on DEF 3.
You would need another evaluation system.

Just my opinion
Our intention is to keep the public educated and informed, not scared out of their wits every time a crisis erupts. This is definitely not a DEFCON 3 situation yet. I can make an argument for DEFCON 4, but I can also see the reasoning for remaining at DEFCON 5. We need the public to take our alerts seriously, which they will not do if we bump the alert level whenever a world leader gets an overdose of testosterone.

The advantage of our system is that if we ever hit DEFCON 2 or 1, you will know that we are not overreacting and it's time to duck and cover.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
“We deter, and if deterrence fails, we’re prepared to respond to aggression with the full weight of the trans-Atlantic alliance,” Gen. Tod Wolters said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on the region. Wolters is U.S. European Command’s chief and NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe.

 
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Major_Tom

Guest
“We deter, and if deterrence fails, we’re prepared to respond to aggression with the full weight of the trans-Atlantic alliance,” Gen. Tod Wolters said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on the region. Wolters is U.S. European Command’s chief and NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe.

This seems to be a more direct military threat than what has been said until now. Given the added weight if coming from a military commander and not a diplomat, should this be cause for additional concern?
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
This seems to be a more direct military threat than what has been said until now. Given the added weight if coming from a military commander and not a diplomat, should this be cause for additional concern?
Concern? Not yet. It might actually be the threat that is needed to get Russia and Ukraine to back down. Russia would have no worries going into Ukraine if he knew NATO would not get involved. Now that NATO has clearly indicated that they will get involved, this should give Putin a moment of pause.

Wait to see Russia's response to this statement before getting concerned.
 
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