Ukraine April 2021

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RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
JUST IN: After Trilateral Security talks, France, Germany, and Ukraine leaders call for Removal of all Russia troops from Ukraine border (Reuters)
 

Kushan

Member
Concern? Not yet. It might actually be the threat that is needed to get Russia and Ukraine to back down. Russia would have no worries going into Ukraine if he knew NATO would not get involved. Now that NATO has clearly indicated that they will get involved, this should give Putin a moment of pause.

Wait to see Russia's response to this statement before getting concerned.

I must be reading that differently. I read that as they were prepared to respond to aggression not that they would. I wouldn't expect him to say they weren't ready to respond to a threat when he's talking to congress.
 
O

Orius

Guest
DEFCON 3 on this page
This Site swipes between D5 and D2 like i will do on Amazon.

They have sometimes good arguments but they let miss the meaning of these Defcon-Levels.

Based on this Site , we were dead since Years.

As there are no further actions taken with highly unusual Troop Movements or other military actions , i guess there is still a maximum of D4.
 

MichaelH

Member
In the very big picture, the broader orientation of NATO toward Ukraine is potentially both a critical deterrent and a massive escalation. People say interesting things all the time, but to hear yesterday that the choice could be between NATO membership and nuclear weapons for Ukraine was more than a little shocking. If I were Ukraine I'd see it exactly that way, but it's not every day that NPT signatories are openly musing about acquiring a nuclear capability. I don't think Russia can allow either of those things to happen without a loss of credibility that would be tough for anyone to stomach, let alone a Putin regime. The operational particulars here are vitally important, but the big picture is drifting toward a much more escalatory dynamic, although more on the months/years timeline than the hour by hour stuff re: Donbass etc.
 

Silent

Power Poster
Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into war in days as UK commanders on 'high alert'

Sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on 'high alert' with the usual calming voices describing Russian forces as appearing to be on a war-footing
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The Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into all-out war within days after Moscow amassed close to 100,000 troops at the flashpoint border, it was feared last night.

Senior Ukraine military sources fear Moscow’s war-planners may have wrong-footed Kiev by being far more battle-ready for a major land and sea attack than previously suspected.

Until recently Ukraine’s senior commanders calculated that if Putin orders an attack deep into East Ukraine and elsewhere it was most likely to come in mid-May.

But today Putin’s navy piled on further pressure on embattled Kiev by announcing the deployment of a war-fighting fleet towards Ukraine arriving within days.

Last night sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on “high alert” over the crisis and are monitoring the situation “with growing concern.”
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NovicePrepper

Guest
Concern? Not yet. It might actually be the threat that is needed to get Russia and Ukraine to back down. Russia would have no worries going into Ukraine if he knew NATO would not get involved. Now that NATO has clearly indicated that they will get involved, this should give Putin a moment of pause.

Wait to see Russia's response to this statement before getting concerned.
I'd say unless this is part of a coordinated effort to divide America's attention.

I mean we are focusing a lot on Ukraine, which I feel is warranted but there's been some noise from China about Taiwan recently, more military movements, more threats towards Taiwan, more incursions into their airspace, not that that's surprising as it happens decently regularly but it seems to have ramped up as of late. Not trying to come off as a conspiracy theorist, but, I kind of feel like it's pretty obvious that Russia and China have similar goals and similar feelings about America. They both have lands that they feel entitled to in their parts of the world (Taiwan, at least part of if not all of Ukraine), they both are consistently opposed in their endeavors to spread their influence by America. They both know that America is pretty much the backbone of NATO in Europe, and whatever the Pacific version of that would be with Japan/South Korea/Australia, etc. And they both have consistently maintained moderate relationships with countries that we generally aren't too friendly with who would absolutely side against the US in the event of a World War (North Korea, Iran, Pakistan.)

Really truly not trying to be all conspiracy theory-ish, but I feel like if either country wanted the greatest amount of success in their plans, their best bet would be to coordinate their moves in such a way that the biggest threat to them, America, would at best (for them) have their attention divided, unable to solely focus on either front, and at worst (for one of them) focus completely on one front, which would allow the other side to essentially take what they wanted relatively unimpeded.

Maybe that's a huge stretch, but it just seems like too much of a coincidence, that at the same time this is occurring in Ukraine with Russia/Belarus, China is making similar noise in Taiwan, there was a cyber attack on Iran's nuclear program, Pakistan's very anti-France attitude to the point that France has advised their citizens to evacuate, and North Korea's weird silence though there's been speculation of China discussing reopening borders with North Korea". And the only reason I'm even mentioning Pakistan is they're another Nuclear power, clearly not a fan of either the US or India who is our big ally in Asia, and Russia has been trying to make nice with them in the last week or two.

Just feels like a combination of our biggest geo-political rivals are shoring up their defense, beginning to extend their influences, and make major moves all around the same time.

Feel free to tell me I'm nuts and prove me wrong folks, I'd rather this all just be a bunch of posturing and nothing major is in the works, just seems a bit unlikely that this is all just a coincidence. I'm not military, so perhaps I'm super off base here but that's totally what I would do if I had things I wanted and America was standing in my way.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I'd say unless this is part of a coordinated effort to divide America's attention.

I mean we are focusing a lot on Ukraine, which I feel is warranted but there's been some noise from China about Taiwan recently, more military movements, more threats towards Taiwan, more incursions into their airspace, not that that's surprising as it happens decently regularly but it seems to have ramped up as of late. Not trying to come off as a conspiracy theorist, but, I kind of feel like it's pretty obvious that Russia and China have similar goals and similar feelings about America. They both have lands that they feel entitled to in their parts of the world (Taiwan, at least part of if not all of Ukraine), they both are consistently opposed in their endeavors to spread their influence by America. They both know that America is pretty much the backbone of NATO in Europe, and whatever the Pacific version of that would be with Japan/South Korea/Australia, etc. And they both have consistently maintained moderate relationships with countries that we generally aren't too friendly with who would absolutely side against the US in the event of a World War (North Korea, Iran, Pakistan.)

Really truly not trying to be all conspiracy theory-ish, but I feel like if either country wanted the greatest amount of success in their plans, their best bet would be to coordinate their moves in such a way that the biggest threat to them, America, would at best (for them) have their attention divided, unable to solely focus on either front, and at worst (for one of them) focus completely on one front, which would allow the other side to essentially take what they wanted relatively unimpeded.

Maybe that's a huge stretch, but it just seems like too much of a coincidence, that at the same time this is occurring in Ukraine with Russia/Belarus, China is making similar noise in Taiwan, there was a cyber attack on Iran's nuclear program, Pakistan's very anti-France attitude to the point that France has advised their citizens to evacuate, and North Korea's weird silence though there's been speculation of China discussing reopening borders with North Korea". And the only reason I'm even mentioning Pakistan is they're another Nuclear power, clearly not a fan of either the US or India who is our big ally in Asia, and Russia has been trying to make nice with them in the last week or two.

Just feels like a combination of our biggest geo-political rivals are shoring up their defense, beginning to extend their influences, and make major moves all around the same time.

Feel free to tell me I'm nuts and prove me wrong folks, I'd rather this all just be a bunch of posturing and nothing major is in the works, just seems a bit unlikely that this is all just a coincidence. I'm not military, so perhaps I'm super off base here but that's totally what I would do if I had things I wanted and America was standing in my way.
The possibility that China and Russia have been coordinating efforts to make simultaneous moves on Ukraine and Taiwan has been discussed in this forum before. Its not conspiracy theory, and it's a theory that not only cannot be ruled out.
 

Silent

Power Poster

Russia to expel 10 American diplomats and considering ‘painful’ measures aimed at US businesses – Lavrov​

Ten US diplomats will have to leave Russia in response to Washington’s expelling of Russian diplomats, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said, adding that Moscow is looking at other sanction options if unfriendly steps continue.
Lavrov announced the news at a press conference on Friday, adding that Moscow would ban US funds and NGOs from interfering in Russia’s internal affairs. Lavrov added that with the US currently employing 450 diplomatic staff in Russia and Russia employing 350 in the US, “the Americans will be asked to bring the number of employees in Russia in line with the number of Russians in the United States,” should relations between the two countries sour further.
Lavrov also said that Russia has the opportunity to inflict “painful measures” on US businesses, but will not take action at this time.

 

MichaelH

Member
Really truly not trying to be all conspiracy theory-ish, but I feel like if either country wanted the greatest amount of success in their plans, their best bet would be to coordinate their moves in such a way that the biggest threat to them, America, would at best (for them) have their attention divided, unable to solely focus on either front, and at worst (for one of them) focus completely on one front, which would allow the other side to essentially take what they wanted relatively unimpeded.
It's a fair concern. You don't even have to look at it from a coordination POV: perhaps just an opportunity. Japan picked up some freebies in the Pacific once WW1 started. The odds of the German navy sailing past the Royal Navy, eluding the French navy, whipping around Cape Horn, and sailing another few thousand miles to contest some islands on Japan's home turf were less than zero, so they happily took advantage. Of course there is another dynamic there too. Perhaps individually the US might fold, say "what the hell, it's half a world away and right next to them". But both going down nearly simultaneously is probably too big a blow to swallow.
 

Silent

Power Poster
Our intention is to keep the public educated and informed, not scared out of their wits every time a crisis erupts. This is definitely not a DEFCON 3 situation yet. I can make an argument for DEFCON 4, but I can also see the reasoning for remaining at DEFCON 5. We need the public to take our alerts seriously, which they will not do if we bump the alert level whenever a world leader gets an overdose of testosterone.

The advantage of our system is that if we ever hit DEFCON 2 or 1, you will know that we are not overreacting and it's time to duck and cover.
Before this page goes to Defcon 2, the Internet is
Down because the war has already broken out. :)
 

bartok

Member
Having read some preview posts, I have to say that I am totaly agree with Defcon level 5, even if Russia intervenes. I have the impression that is not so clear that also a Defcon level 4, it is a very high level of risk. We are speking about a nuclear war: the end of the word as we imagine it! As to say something never happened. A level 4 it is meaning that a nuclear war is an actual possibility. Level 3 indicates that nuclear war is likely to happen. Level 2 is for a pretty sure nuclear war and level is just nuclear war time. Only level 5 is a stable position. At this moment, it is absosolutely clear that there are no risk of a nuclear war. And be sure: here, in Europe, if a a nuclear war were a real possibility, we were scared more for this, than for covid. If Defcon level were 4 or 3, this problem were more important than others.

May exolode a war in Ukraine? Yes, it can. Can this war shake European indolence? Maybe. But at this time, there is no risk of nuclear war. And that doesn't mean that the situation is not very important.
 

Kushan

Member
Having read some preview posts, I have to say that I am totaly agree with Defcon level 5, even if Russia intervenes. I have the impression that is not so clear that also a Defcon level 4, it is a very high level of risk. We are speking about a nuclear war: the end of the word as we imagine it! As to say something never happened. A level 4 it is meaning that a nuclear war is an actual possibility. Level 3 indicates that nuclear war is likely to happen. Level 2 is for a pretty sure nuclear war and level is just nuclear war time. Only level 5 is a stable position. At this moment, it is absosolutely clear that there are no risk of a nuclear war. And be sure: here, in Europe, if a a nuclear war were a real possibility, we were scared more for this, than for covid. If Defcon level were 4 or 3, this problem were more important than others.

May exolode a war in Ukraine? Yes, it can. Can this war shake European indolence? Maybe. But at this time, there is no risk of nuclear war. And that doesn't mean that the situation is not very important.

If war does break out between Ukraine and Russia, I think there will definitely be some more harsher sanctions and more lethal aid, at least from the US.
 

bartok

Member
If war does break out between Ukraine and Russia, I think there will definitely be some more harsher sanctions and more lethal aid, at least from the US.

I don't think so. If it were so simple, Russia would have intervened since 2014. The situation is very tense. Ukraine is not into the NATO, so art. 5 can't be applied and, last but not the least, there aren't NATO installation in Ukraine. But if Russia attacks, US and NATO have commit themselves too much to do nothing. It's hard to say what Russia can do, or not do, in order to minimize NATO retaliation: surely to stay away from NATO borders, but it is also unlikely that Russia, if will intervene, it intervines only for Donbass, to have as neighbor not the frindly people of Donbass, but just the hostile Ukranians. It is a bet, partially. For me, it is not possible to do more speculations. I think that we have to stay very careful to some steps that, is they will happen, they can be a more specific alarm signals: the Russian/NATO responce to a NO FLY ZONE declared by NATO/Russia and real, clear, declared ultimatums. But, in my opinion, these things will not be enought to lower the defcon level, without, at least, the threat of use of tactical nukes.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
There is defiantly a high probability that conflict might break out between Ukraine and Russia. Not a given but things have spooled up.
That in itself in no way points to even a expanding regional war or nuclear exchange.
This is not stand-off between a established historical NATO member. But an exsoviet member not even one viewed in the same level as east Germany or Poland.
Russia has provided aid to Armenia in the recent conflict and I applauded them for that. NATO was weak and conflicted In not being more assertive there.
Many in the west view Ukraine as a break-away republic, incorrectly, but none the less as originally part of Russia.
this view will change and mature over time as I think it should.

if their is a corresponding move by say Russia and China or Russia and Iran then the calculus changes for sure and this should be watched.

Maybe what might help is a war game scenario of what might need to occur for an raising of the defcon level.
This topic has been mentioned piece meal recently but not in totality.
it might best be done on another thread though. I’ll leave that to staff I cause enough trouble
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
Maybe what might help is a war game scenario of what might need to occur for an raising of the defcon level.
As long as the United States/NATO stay out of it, the chances for nuclear conflict is extremely low. Unless by some miracle Ukraine is in a position to recapture Crimea, which isn't going to happen unless the aforementioned Hell Freezing Over occurs.
 
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