Ukraine April 2021

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Obreid

Power Poster
Russia can achieve any of its goals in Ukraine militarily with out nukes.
The west track record of not really showing up when Eastern European “allies” need them indicate any nato help will be in the form of aid and air intelligence only.
That’s not to say nato might not actually send some little green men. Those will remain deniable.
So the risk of escalation into major power conflict is small.
As in any storm things can always take a turn for the worst but you evaluate the current facts only. Not by forecasting a hurricane when a tropical depression is moving across unusually cool ocean waters.
If NATO troops are openly positioned in Ukraine or Russia goes much beyond eastern boarders of Ukraine reevaluate then.
Diplomacy is such a deceitful business either side can spin small territory loses as cost of doing business.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Russia is probably not going nuclear on Ukraine but probably on NATO, if it is loosing ground or the other way around.
That lies course somewhat in the future now.
But people need some time to prepare, we can't just wait until the nukes are flying.
Making any nuclear threats now, would be stategic mistake by Russia at this point, it also knows it can't deter NATO.
I don't think there is enough reaction time at all to stay on condition green or blue which could leave most people unconcerned.
Unlike our more reactionary competitors, we actually analyze the available OSINT and how it indicates (or not) the potential for a conflict to turn nuclear rather than just screaming "DEFCON 1!!!!!!!! OMG WTF EOTWAWKI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" every time a country moves an aircraft carrier from point A to point B.

People tend to take our alert levels seriously, and we have been proven correct time after time in our decisions to remain at lower levels while others are predicting imminent global thermonuclear war.

We are monitoring the situation and discussing potential scenarios.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Speaking of and not surprisingly, this site is at level 4:

Anyway, just hoping and praying that things don't get out of control.
Looks like they're using the actual US Military DEFCON color coding. I always thought it was dumb that 5 was blue and 4 was green. Doesn't make any sense to me. Anyone have the skinny on why they went with those color codes?
 
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Orius

Guest
Unlike our more reactionary competitors, we actually analyze the available OSINT and how it indicates (or not) the potential for a conflict to turn nuclear rather than just screaming "DEFCON 1!!!!!!!! OMG WTF EOTWAWKI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" every time a country moves an aircraft carrier from point A to point B.

People tend to take our alert levels seriously, and we have been proven correct time after time in our decisions to remain at lower levels while others are predicting imminent global thermonuclear war.

We are monitoring the situation and discussing potential scenarios.
This !

To be honest , i would take it seriously too. Since i look sometimes in here , it feels good analyzed and also like from people , who has the knowledge at this field.

As Biden called Putin a " Killer" few Weeks ago , many Germans were like : Oh no , WW3 incoming.

If you would overreact like this it just causes a little heart attack

or for better explanation : if any nuclear force would overreact like this ... i guess we all know how it ends.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Anyone have confirmation that Belarus has moved troops and hardware to the Ukraine border?
 
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check in

Guest
Unlike our more reactionary competitors, we actually analyze the available OSINT and how it indicates (or not) the potential for a conflict to turn nuclear rather than just screaming "DEFCON 1!!!!!!!! OMG WTF EOTWAWKI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" every time a country moves an aircraft carrier from point A to point B.

People tend to take our alert levels seriously, and we have been proven correct time after time in our decisions to remain at lower levels while others are predicting imminent global thermonuclear war.

We are monitoring the situation and discussing potential scenarios.
I don't think that people will continue to take your alert levels serious anymore if you keep playing down the threats. I don't since a couple of years now and have stopped even to visit it since years because of your ignorance.
This overall crisis situation in Ukraine, in the South China sea, North Korea and Iran and in the Arctic sea is way more complex and worrisome than you seem to realise.
This site has failed it's duty to keep people ready and prepared.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Rude posts will be deleted. If you disagree with our analyses, that is fine and we welcome and will consider contradictory information that is well-supported.

Posting insults will get you nowhere. I suggest you move on to other sites if a flame war is your goal. We're the wrong crowd for that kind of behavior.

You know who you are.
 

Silent

Power Poster
Belarus deploys troops to border with Ukraine

A reporter from one of Germany’s highest-circulating dailies Bild, Julian Ropcke, tweeted Wednesday morning that Belarus deployed its troops to the country’s borders with Ukraine.

“Dictator Lukashenko is also moving the Belarusian army towards the Ukrainian border (here 60 km north of the border of Rivne Oblast),” he said on Twitter.

Photos released Wednesday by Julian Ropcke show large amounts of Belarus’ military hardware, including BTR-80 armored vehicles and military trucks.


The military convoy was filmed on 31 March near Logishin, Belarus.

In addition, earlier on Tuesday, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Ruslan Khomchak said that Russia is building up armed forces near Ukraine’s borders in a threat to the country’s security.

In remarks to parliament, Khomchak also accused pro-Moscow separatists of systematically violating a ceasefire in the conflict in eastern Ukraine agreed in July 2020.


 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Belarus deploys troops to border with Ukraine

A reporter from one of Germany’s highest-circulating dailies Bild, Julian Ropcke, tweeted Wednesday morning that Belarus deployed its troops to the country’s borders with Ukraine.

“Dictator Lukashenko is also moving the Belarusian army towards the Ukrainian border (here 60 km north of the border of Rivne Oblast),” he said on Twitter.

Photos released Wednesday by Julian Ropcke show large amounts of Belarus’ military hardware, including BTR-80 armored vehicles and military trucks.


The military convoy was filmed on 31 March near Logishin, Belarus.

In addition, earlier on Tuesday, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Ruslan Khomchak said that Russia is building up armed forces near Ukraine’s borders in a threat to the country’s security.

In remarks to parliament, Khomchak also accused pro-Moscow separatists of systematically violating a ceasefire in the conflict in eastern Ukraine agreed in July 2020.


I wonder if Russia has also deployed their troops along Bryansk region (shares the border with Ukraine and Belarus on the north of Ukraine), but i couldn't confirm that yet. They need to deploy everywhere to force Ukraine disperse as much troops as possible.
 
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UK says it is gravely concerned about Russian military activity threatening Ukraine​

(Reuters) - British foreign minister Dominic Raab said on Friday Britain was gravely concerned about Russian military activity which threatened Ukraine.
"I reaffirmed UK support for Ukraine’s sovereignty & territorial integrity in my call with (Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba) today," Raab said on Twitter.

 
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Splinters

Guest
Do you believe they could be preparing to invade at the same time?
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
1617408250147.png "Columns of Ukraine military fuel trucks were also seen in Zaporozhye and Slavyansk. The situation remains tense." -galandeczp

Minimum 9 trucks i have counted in a single Slavyansk's column, they were transported at evening before sunset, and probably distributed between units of Lugansk and Donetsk directions. Vital part of mechanized offensive, who knows may be they'll use them for attack tommorrow, after tonight's arty shelling, or not. I am concerned that Ukraine broke contact and did not talked to the other side or Norman Format and been hiding from OSCE inspectors for way too long, considering the situation. This can't last forever. They have to continue talks, but they pull more forces instead. So if they have chosen this course, they have to attack soon, regardless the weather which is not going to clear up as minimum for the upcoming week. They don't have much time left, they must escalate further, as their allies already started media pressure on worldwide stage.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Someone feel free to correct or clarify for me on this.
Logishin is more to the west and not congruent to the Russian Border of Belarus and Ukraine.
Is the posturing of Russian allied troops here new from past engagements? If it is then the calculus has changed “slightly”.
Severely divides Ukraine’s resources from one long front to essentially two fronts. If it’s not knew that’s my bad, I just have no recollection of this.
It also complicates NATO air resources in monitoring the boarders. Also crossing Ukrainian boarders here I would think indicates different goals and up the anti some.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Someone feel free to correct or clarify for me on this.
Logishin is more to the west and not congruent to the Russian Border of Belarus and Ukraine.
Is the posturing of Russian allied troops here new from past engagements? If it is then the calculus has changed “slightly”.
Severely divides Ukraine’s resources from one long front to essentially two fronts. If it’s not knew that’s my bad, I just have no recollection of this.
It also complicates NATO air resources in monitoring the boarders. Also crossing Ukrainian boarders here I would think indicates different goals and up the anti some.
No, you nailed it on the head; it's designed to force Ukraine to worry about a two-front war with Russia. Those troops don't have to do a thing other than just sit there and it will accomplish just that.
 

Silent

Power Poster
This message is from the German Tagesschau. This source is very serious


In response to the location in the Ostukraine and the Russian troop movements on the border with Ukraine, the US forces in Europe increased their alarm status to the highest level, as the "New York Times" and other media reported. NATO also shared with, beginning The week was spotted near the Alliance area unusually many Russian military aircraft. For Abfangmanövern over the North Atlantic and the Black Sea and the North and Baltic Sea, six different groups were identified with bombers and fighting jets from Russia on Monday within less than six hours. This had been an extraordinary peak. Dar again, the Russian newspaper reported "Red Star", Russian radar stations have been located 37 foreign spy walls and 13 drones along the state border.
 

AmericanNoise

New member
If Belarus actually is planning to invade from the north that's a massive problem. Changes it from far west and Crimean situation to where the entire west or even entire nation is in play.

That's probably what Russia wants Ukraine to think.
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Do you believe they could be preparing to invade at the same time?
If you are talking about Russia, then they are probably prepared for the worst kind development. It depends on how Republic's fighters will manage, if they not - Russia will have to back them up, otherwise ~250.000 people with legitimate Russian citizenship and many more thousands ethnic Russians will be taken hostage and purged, thus 7 years of fighting will end up in vain - which Russian populace would never forgive to it's government. In order to save his more or less stable position in power, Putin will have to go extreme, and maybe grab some land- to compensate a little for the upcoming sanctions which will be put on them inevitably.
NATO is only all-talk, they are not going to give support to Ukraine (aside moral one) - the fact that the office of president Zelensky clearly understoods. Leaders of Europe does not seem to care much about them, and Poland quietly hates them. Just ask yourself, what will happen if Ukraine win, and what will happen if Russia win? They'll rather get much more fruitful aggreements with Russia, instead. Sadly, Ukraine doesn't have friends - only masters, and it's people are expendable assets in order to reach goals of Western block, to "seriosly" help them is deemed to be economically impractical - even many dollars that been sent to support Ukraine, gets lost in hands of corrupt politicians instead of being helpful. Except for Turkey, maybe, that keeps putting hopes into this conflict and is geniunely helping Ukraine, but this is Turkey's own initiative outside of NATO affairs. Also, Russian strikes might be directed to cripple Ukraine infrastructure so this country would stop being a bother for them this way and will force NATO countries to act more on their own outside of puppets.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Depends on what Russia does. Crimea? NATO does nothing. Another land grab? Probably nothing given what Russia wants.

A full on invasion? We'll see something.

But then, Russia will invade Ukraine as soon as the US invades Mexico.
War Plan Green, anyone?

Putin is ex-KGB and wants the old Soviet empire back much more than the US wants the headaches of invading Mexico. He is much more likely to succeed by taking it back little patches of land at a time over several years instead of the full-scale invasion feared by NATO. We do not have a viable defense to that strategy.
 
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