Ukraine April 2021

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Nameless_one

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Can you imagine the Hawks at the Pentagon crying uncle? Trying to picture that actually happening strains my brain.

It won't even get that far. Remember the planning of D Day? The US/UK took 9 months to plan and had to use all sorts of deception to surprise Germany. Because making an amphibious assault on a waiting enemy is just asking for a slaughter. Even with the US/UK getting full surprise on Germany, look at the cost. It's not easy.

China is about 5 hours away from Taiwan. This causes several issues. First, can they get surprise? Probably not. Anyone will spot a fleet that size heading there. So that gives Tawain plenty of time to get prepared for the landing. This doesn't take into the account the shelling the ships will take from Taiwan and air support.

The chances of China landing without a massive loss of life is small. But they could do it. Now what? Now the real issue begins, how do you resupply? Now Taiwan knows the landing site and resupply route. They can retreat to better ground up in the mountains and continue bombardment of the Chinese position and the resupply routes. Can it be accomplished? Yah...but again, it's not easy and lots of Chinese losses.

Notice I didnt even mention the US yet. Now add that to the equation, and it's a huge gamble for China to take. Not to mention the shockwaves in the Pacific once China lands. What does Japan do? What does the Phillipines do? What does South Korea, Vietnam, Australia do? Europe would put huge sanctions.

Not to mention the Chinese navy hasn't seen action in 120 years.

It's a huge gamble. Take Taiwan and they would become the other verified superpower. Lose and they would get set back about 20 years.

The worst outcome for them would be to become bogged down in a war that takes over a year in Taiwan. The US blockades the straits of Malacca and several Chinese ports.

Theres a reason China hasnt tried yet and the russian conflict is not going to change that.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
We have two antagonist in Russia and China, it’s better to keep them divided and Russia’s much less of a threat to us.
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too late
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For those who think the US could win a war against Russia / China

I do not know why some believe the US could win a 2 front war (China will take the opportunity and will attack Taiwan). Should it come to it, the US is in big trouble
Since the Civil War, the US has not experienced a war in its own field. This will be different this time.
I hope it never happens, otherwise good luck, the US will need it.
It might be too late” but if it had been handled properly it could have been countered.
russia has a long history of antagonism with China and more direct risk to China in actuality.

All of these worst case situations carry with them the use of nuclear weapons.
The use of nukes ruins economies.
ruining economies is bad for business.

The matter of this escalating to a conflagration continues to rest on the assumption that at least one of the three could be defeated absolutely and quickly. With minimal risk of significant destruction to home country.
Or one of the three have their back so against the wall and desperate that they resort to nukes.
History shows that mistakes in diplomacy and war often result from misreading your enemies intentions or capability.
This is where the current risk of nuclear exchange exist and it is still minimal.

That does not mean there is minimal risk of conventional conflict. It is high in fact but if it comes as things now stand escalation beyond conventional regional conflict in Eastern Europe or SCS is unlikely. “Small bites” digest better.

If open conflict happens in either then the calculus of a nuclear exchange would have to be reconsidered.
conventional conflict does not preclude or for-ordain the use of nukes.

If conventional conflict occurs, other than local shelling in a region. Going to 4 or 3 depending on the circumstances would be warranted in my opinion.

Unfortunately the time needed to rise from defcon 5 to 3 or even 2 will sadly be very short because of the technology and coms. There is no predictable ramp up to it that I see. Humans are involved.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Mounting an amphibious assault is not easy as the movies make it out to be.
China would have to destroy Taiwan first to take it. The world outrage if they tried it would be immense. As much political good will that they’ve bought I don’t see them having enough to succeed.
they are are trying to provoke Taiwan to strike out so that the can scream oh the horror. Then launch some missiles at them in a “justified” response.
 

Silent

Power Poster

Czech Republic to expel 18 Russian diplomats, сiting claim that ‘intel officers involved in 2014 munitions depot explosion’​


The Czech Republic says it will expel 18 Russian diplomats, alleging that Russian intelligence officers were involved in a local munitions depot blast in 2014. It comes a day after Moscow said it would expel 10 US diplomats.
The move by Prague came amid a diplomatic standoff between Moscow and Washington that began midweek, after US President Joe Biden ordered 10 Russian diplomats out of the country over the Kremlin’s alleged interference in the 2020 presidential election and its claimed involvement in last year’s SolarWinds cyber-espionage case. More than 30 Russian individuals and organizations were also sanctioned, while American companies were banned from directly buying shares in Russia’s national debt.

 

rudemarine

Power Poster
As long as the United States/NATO stay out of it, the chances for nuclear conflict is extremely low. Unless by some miracle Ukraine is in a position to recapture Crimea, which isn't going to happen unless the aforementioned Hell Freezing Over occurs.
After Biden was allowed to be called our President, I have not rullled out anything. Especially Putin showing up piloting a navy tug boat in a dress, let alone Ukraine have found a way to take back Crimea without hell freezing over lol. And people thought last year was bad. I knew this year would be worse with ole dementia at the helm.
 

ChinPower

Member
What's the point of China invading Taiwan with its population totally opposing Chinese government, absence of any significant resources and military strength enough to inflict heavy casualties? Not to mention this move will provoke heavy sanctions. Traditional wars make less and less sense each year. Chinese will win Taiwan with its growing economical and cultural superiority.
 
An impressive group gathered in the Black Sea (more than 20 ships). Representatives of 3 fleets (Caspian, Northern, Baltic), in cooperation with the forces of the Black Sea Fleet, will take part in offset naval exercises.
 
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OneConcernedDude

Guest
What's the point of China invading Taiwan with its population totally opposing Chinese government, absence of any significant resources and military strength enough to inflict heavy casualties? Not to mention this move will provoke heavy sanctions. Traditional wars make less and less sense each year. Chinese will win Taiwan with its growing economical and cultural superiority.
Pissing off the US and crippling some of their main microchip sources
 

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
This movement can be considered an escalation, Russian Air Force ELINT/SIGINT Ilyushin Il-20 90924 is being deployed in the Sea of Azov, and more importantly with active transponder something that the Russians tend to take great care of. https://t.co/1PpPVvfhux

Russian Air Force ELINT/SIGINT Ilyushin Il-20 90924 currently circling off the coast of #Sochi https://t.co/0wwbuV0P4k
 

Obreid

Power Poster
What's the point of China invading Taiwan with its population totally opposing Chinese government, absence of any significant resources and military strength enough to inflict heavy casualties? Not to mention this move will provoke heavy sanctions. Traditional wars make less and less sense each year. Chinese will win Taiwan with its growing economical and cultural superiority.
Taiwan is a festering wound in the minds of the CCP.
They’ve gone to great lengths to rewrite Taiwan’s history. Taiwan is a rebel province standing in opposition to the mainland all the while benefiting from the US umbrella.
 
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