Ukraine April 2021

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DEFCON Warning System

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Putin is ex-KGB and wants the old Soviet empire back much more than the US wants the headaches of invading Mexico.
Putin doesn't want the old Soviet Empire back. He even said so himself.

"Anyone who doesn't miss the Soviet Union has not heart. Anyone who wants it back has no head." Or something to that effect.

He may not want the empire, but he does want the glory. The prestige.

He is much more likely to succeed by taking it back little patches of land at a time over several years instead of the full-scale invasion feared by NATO. We do not have a viable defense to that strategy.
Death by a thousand cuts.

Russia has two goals. To regain glory and to keep the US in check.

Ukraine is a means to that end. But in bits and pieces.
 

CreepyMonkey

Active member
Putin doesn't want the old Soviet Empire back. He even said so himself.

"Anyone who doesn't miss the Soviet Union has not heart. Anyone who wants it back has no head." Or something to that effect.

He may not want the empire, but he does want the glory. The prestige.


Death by a thousand cuts.

Russia has two goals. To regain glory and to keep the US in check.

Ukraine is a means to that end. But in bits and pieces.
Well put and I couldn't agree more. The US probability of actually having any kind of military involvement in this turf war is almost zero. If they were planning on having any kind of action in that arena the Eisenhower wouldn't have headed south through the Suez today.
 

matty1053

Power Poster
I am personally not concerned regarding Ukraine. Russia could take over Ukraine in a matter of weeks if they really wanted to. I can't see the US getting involved in any confrontation over Ukraine. Maybe just more sanctions and Biden yelling at Putin, but that's just it.
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
UAV of the Ukraine Armed Forces has killed a 5-year-old child.

People's Police Department of the DPR reported that. “A male child (born in 2016) was killed, a female local resident (born in 1954) has received wounds of various severity, she was taken to a hospital, where was provided with all the necessary medical care,” Militia said. The reason for the incident at Alexandrovka village was called the drop of explosive ordnance from a Ukrainian drone. Attack has happened in depth of 12-15 kilometers from the frontline. Other circumstances are being investigated.

This is the second case of civillian casualties inflicted by Ukrainian side since the start of recent escalation. The first one was conducted in March, 22when sniper of the Ukraine Armed Forces has killed a local civilian resident.
 

Silent

Power Poster
The State Duma warned Ukraine and NATO against the war over Crimea Potential aggression by Ukraine and NATO against Crimea will end in disaster for the initiators of the conflict. This was announced on April 3 by the State Duma deputy from the Crimean region Mikhail Sheremet.

 

Silent

Power Poster
: Vice President of the Council of the Russian Federation (upper house of parliament) Konstantin Kosachev: "Kiev will consider Europe's silent position as carte blanche for a military operation in Donbass and to restore territorial integrity by force."

 

Silent

Power Poster
Chairman of the State Duma of the Russia Viacheslav Volodin: "The rhetoric of the Ukrainian leadership regarding the conflict in Donbass has gone far and is fraught with the most dire consequences, the actions of radical Ukrainian politicians will not get away with them."









 
A

Aid2

Guest
I predict nothing will happen, remember all the large troop and equipment movements in Iraq in regards to Iran back in early 2020? everyone hysteric until it all fizzled out into nothing. This will be exactly the same, as it always has been just like North Korea.
 

Steve Douglass

New member
Last evening I watched on ADS-B as no less than 10 USAF C-17 GlobeMasters (maybe more) took off from Fort Bliss, Texas crossed the country and then turned off their squawks as they crossed over Maine and out over the Atlantic. All had RCH callsigns.
While this was going on multiple EAMs were transmitted on the USAF Global HF network on all their main frequencies. As the C-17s went NE they were joined an hour into their flight by an E-4B callsign HOTROD88 out of Offut, AFB who I'm pretty sure was the aircraft transmitting the EAMS/FDMs because he was incredibly loud as he passed 600 miles north of me -practically line-of-sight at altitude) and it followed the RCH flights until I fell asleep well after midnight local.
In my opinion it’s one of two things - a large scale REACH exercise or it’s not.
 
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Québécois

Guest
Les États-Unis ont demandé à la Russie une explication des provocations à la frontière avec l'Ukraine, selon
@StateDeptSpox
https://liveuamap.com/en/2021/5-april-us-has-asked-russia-for-an-explanation-for-provocations… via
@ W7VOA
#Ukraine
"Nous déployons sur notre territoire les activités que nous jugeons nécessaires": Moscou répond à Washington © Sputnik. Alexei Mayhev

DEFCON Warning System - Translation: "We are deploying on our territory the activities that we deem necessary": Moscow responds to Washington © Sputnik. Alexei mayhev

 
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Obreid

Power Poster
Last evening I watched on ADS-B as no less than 10 USAF C-17 GlobeMasters (maybe more) took off from Fort Bliss, Texas crossed the country and then turned off their squawks as they crossed over Maine and out over the Atlantic. All had RCH callsigns.
While this was going on multiple EAMs were transmitted on the USAF Global HF network on all their main frequencies. As the C-17s went NE they were joined an hour into their flight by an E-4B callsign HOTROD88 out of Offut, AFB who I'm pretty sure was the aircraft transmitting the EAMS/FDMs because he was incredibly loud as he passed 600 miles north of me -practically line-of-sight at altitude) and it followed the RCH flights until I fell asleep well after midnight local.
In my opinion it’s one of two things - a large scale REACH exercise or it’s not.
Relevant for sure but just like running “drills” in Russia more than likely posturing.
wisdom would advise that posturing carry with it something of usable value.
Going dark feet wet is more message than tactics. Anyone who cares knows they took off so finding where they landed is pretty straight forward with handful of eyes. If they aren’t seen at a European base then probably landed a remote Norwegian base. That would be a tactic not a message.
and just so no one gets their panties in a wad. Choice of tactics used are messages in themselves.
We sail entire fleets across multiple oceans just to send a “message” never intending to do anything more than a police patrol drive-by.
 
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Québécois

Guest
I believe that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine as far as Kiev. Ukrainian friend
said to me a few weeks ago that a Russian propaganda was browsing social networks: You will have to be on our side, otherwise you will die ...
My opinion, USA and NATO will let it go, just bark
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I believe that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine as far as Kiev. Ukrainian friend
said to me a few weeks ago that a Russian propaganda was browsing social networks: You will have to be on our side, otherwise you will die ...
My opinion, USA and NATO will let it go, just bark
I doubt sincerely NATO and the US will allow Putin to completely overrun Ukraine completely. This would eliminate a huge strategic buffer between Russia and Eastern Europe, putting Russian troops and NATO troops within rifle range of each other on either side of the border.
 
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Québécois

Guest
I don't believe Putin asked for permission. Did he ask for the Crimea?
 
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