Ukraine April 2021

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Nhmike

New member
I just assume they're doing the exact opposite of what they SAY they're doing. They're also leaving all the equipment in place - their excuse is for the Zapad 2021 exercises. Maybe they decided that the ground sucks right now and they'll come back in May or June after they create a few false flag events. Now its all pre-positioned.

We still have Putin's requested emergency meeting on Friday with his upper chamber. Wonder what thats going to be about?
 

TheChrome

Power Poster
Lets have a look at Russia's history in terms of their definition of 'withdrawal'
From BBC in 2014 - "
Units in the Rostov, Belgorod and Bryansk regions should return to their permanent bases, a statement said.
Russia has made similar statements in the past. Nato chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said there was no evidence of any withdrawal so far."

That is on the money. Good Job!
 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Russian troops began pulling back to their permanent bases Friday after a massive buildup that has caused Ukrainian and Western concerns. On Thursday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared the sweeping maneuvers in Crimea and wide swaths of western Russia over, and ordered the military to bring the troops that took part in them back to their permanent bases by May 1.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the announcement. The Russian Defense Ministry said Friday that its forces that took part in the massive drills in Crimea were moving to board trains, transport aircraft and landing vessels en route to their permanent bases.Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv would await confirmation from Ukrainian and NATO intelligence.“We want to see that Russian deeds match Russian words,” Kuleba said Friday during a visit to Romania.

While ordering the pullback of military personnel, Shoigu ordered their heavy weapons kept in western Russia for a massive exercise called Zapad (West) 2021 later this year. The weapons were to be stored at the Pogonovo firing range in the southwestern Voronezh region, 160 kilometers (100 miles) east of Russia’s border with Ukraine.

 

rudemarine

Power Poster
More weapons and troops were moved in the last few weeks than any prior Zapad exercise, a lot more! Between now and September when the exercise is said to kick off they will be bringing in heavier weapons 100 miles from Ukraine. Sounds like a lot of Russian lip service going on.

I do not understand why they bother to pull them out at all. Its there land so build your defenses Putin, so NATO knows what they need to destroy in time of war.

I am very curious what Putin's planned meeting is all about today.
 
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Rusty Shackleford

Guest
More weapons and troops were moved in the last few weeks than any prior Zapad exercise, a lot more! Between now and September when the exercise is said to kick off they will be bringing in heavier weapons 100 miles from Ukraine. Sounds like a lot of Russian lip service going on.

I do not understand why they bother to pull them out at all. Its there land so build your defenses Putin, so NATO knows what they need to destroy in time of war.

I am very curious what Putin's planned meeting is all about today.
Apparently the meeting already transpired, and what came of it was 1). banning municipal and state employees from holding foreign citizenship, and 2). banning the confiscation of pets over debts
 
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MikeG

Guest
... so NATO knows what they need to destroy in time of war.
One of my biggest fears is that Russia and/or China would open that war with a surgical surprise nuclear attack on the US mainland and our command/control centers. They both brag about all these shiny new high tech weapons, new missiles that we couldn't stop in time, EMP weapons, new hypersonic this-and-thats, and our strategic defenses (Minuteman III) are aging and approaching their end of life because our national leadership appear to be asleep at the wheel. Really all Russia/China has to do is wait another 5 years and they wont even have to fire a shot. They can just use nuclear blackmail. I hope Im very very wrong and this is just the result of me reading too much Nyquist.
 
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MikeG.

Guest
They called an emergency meeting to ban pet confiscation?
Im thinking the whole thing was an abandoned course of action (or maybe the usual Sun Tzu stuff). Before Putin's address on 4/21, the spokesman for the Federation Council mentioned that Putins "instructions" to be given during his 4/21 speech would have to be quickly implemented. Didnt someone also state that this type of emergency meeting would only be called in the event that they would need to put Russian troops in a foreign country (Ukraine or maybe Belarus), invoke martial law, or something else that escapes me. Also, I read Putin's speech. It was a snoozer so this is either a bunch of BS and they are moving things behind the scenes, or the "plan of the month" was aborted. Maybe this is doom and gloom of me, but I dont trust russians. I never will.
 

CreepyMonkey

Active member
So, wait...this isn't the single biggest threat to world nuclear stability that's ever been seen? I'm confused. ;)

I KID! No offense to anyone who was more than just a little bit concerned about this issue. Hopefully now that things seems to be settling, folks can see why the staff didn't move the DEFCON level. It would have been irresponsible.
 

Incognito

Active member
I'm sick and tired of the DEFCON-5 level. I've become peace weary. I say we move it...to DEFCON-6 and PARTY 🥳🍹🍷🍸🥃🥴..........🤢..........🤮

See...the world didn't even come close to ending what for the 20 billionth time. Let the professionals hand the DEFCON rating. If you don't you're going to get an ulcer from all the worry.
Salor kiss.jpg
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
I'm sick and tired of the DEFCON-5 level. I've become peace weary. I say we move it...to DEFCON-6 and PARTY 🥳🍹🍷🍸🥃🥴..........🤢..........🤮

See...the world didn't even come close to ending what for the 20 billionth time. Let the professionals hand the DEFCON rating. If you don't you're going to get an ulcer from all the worry.
View attachment 1121
Yet if Russia had invaded Ukraine, which is only a matter of time you will see the Defcon level advance quite rapidly as NATO rushes in to block his moves. In the meantime, party like a rockstar. Its dumb to live a paranoid life. If you get caught on D-DAY with a bad hangover slam a hair or the dog and fight on. If you get caught sober you better have a drink for me lol.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
I'm sick and tired of the DEFCON-5 level. I've become peace weary. I say we move it...to DEFCON-6 and PARTY
Hmm....I wonder what DEFCON 6 would actually represent. Condition: Party?

the world didn't even come close to ending what for the 20 billionth time. Let the professionals hand the DEFCON rating.
I just wanted to clarify (for those who don't believe us) that we took Ukraine very seriously. We didn't leave it at 5 because we're so good at our job that we knew nothing was going to happen or that we magically foresaw that Russia was going to pull its troops back.

The DEFCON level stayed at 5 because NATO was holding back and there was absolutely no sign that they were going to get involved. Anything can change and if Russia made a blitz for Kiev, I would have felt it was a bad day to quit sniffing glue. (Joke from the movie Airplane for those who don't know.)

But for what was happening in the area, events did not move in the direction of a conflict between major powers. And so we held the DEFCON level.

We could have gotten a lot -- a whole lot -- more followers and people on the forums and made a whole lot more money if we would have followed the crowd and started yelling "DEFCON 3, DEFCON 3, DEFCON 3!" Goodness knows there was a lot of pressure to do so.

But that isn't what we're here for. We're here to warn, not to glorify ourselves, or up our ratings. We're not here to frighten anyone. We'll issue warnings when appropriate and hold back when appropriate.

But remember, in the end it is guesswork. No one can know what the other person is thinking. We've been doing this for a long time, and we have experience. So yes, we are good at our job. But it still is guesswork.

As always, "the public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack."
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Hell most people still don't understand that the Defcon alerts are for our nuclear force posture at the given time and not regular dust ups that our Governments respond to all over this rock that get people all in a tizzy.
Russia knows when our alert levels change and they are a very paranoid bunch so our own government only changes it's posture when it needs to send a message to Russia or to get our forces on a elevated level ready for an attack or to be the attacker.

Different things are done at different levels, however all at 3 and up should be called oh shit levels so like the boss said. STOP BEGGING US TO FREAK PEOPLE OUT FOR NO DAM REASON 😂😂. I am bad enough at doing that to myself every morning when I roll over in bed. What did I do last night and who are you 😆.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Hell most people still don't understand that the Defcon alerts are for our nuclear force posture at the given time and not regular dust ups that our Governments respond to all over this rock that get people all in a tizzy.
Russia knows when our alert levels change and they are a very paranoid bunch so our own government only changes it's posture when it needs to send a message to Russia or to get our forces on a elevated level ready for an attack or to be the attacker.

Different things are done at different levels, however all at 3 and up should be called oh shit levels so like the boss said. STOP BEGGING US TO FREAK PEOPLE OUT FOR NO DAM REASON 😂😂. I am bad enough at doing that to myself every morning when I roll over in bed. What did I do last night and who are you 😆.
Have you chewed your arm off yet?
 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Since Saturday evening, Russia has suspended the right to innocent passage for foreign warships and other state vessels in three regions of the Black Sea, according to a bulletin from the Department of Navigation and Oceanography of the Ministry of Defense.

It is emphasized that this restriction will be in effect from 21.00 on April 24 to 21.00 on October 31.

The zones planned for closure will not interfere with navigation through the Kerch Strait, in addition, they are all located within the territorial waters of Russia.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine protested to Moscow over this decision, indicating that it was allegedly adopted under the pretext of conducting military exercises, despite the fact that all areas planned for closure extend only to the outer border of the territorial sea of the Russian Federation.

 
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