Ukraine April 2021

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Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Wow, what a bias. And this "local populace talks with military", military never interacts with local populace, they don't even can look at them or their locations. And does this source ever looked into diplomatic situation in the region?

And yet nobody realised what's happening with Russian troops moving around? Heard lots of wild fantasies, but not analysis based on reality facts and circumstances - They indeed moved away the personnel, but not equipment, it stays there. Because they are saving money. To keep military people deployed somewhere on alert is costly as you have to feed them and pay them increased bonus salary for deployment, but as the situation calmed down (and massive check-up of military regions ended) they are unnecessary to stay there. If there's a need, they will come back, it's fast to do and not expensive to relocate people.
Equipment is an opposite thing - to remove the stored vehicles back is costly as hell as inappropriate to the current situation - these goods are needed there both for planned reasons (Zapad Exercises), and staying "just in case" for unforseen scenarios, and yet these goods and vehicles don't ask for food and money for staying there.
So why pulling them out? Why wasting money?

And why nobody is focused on the DNR/LNR themselves? They are the main topic there, not even Russia nor Ukraine. World media is averting everyone's gazes from them by feeding crazy predictions and fanfics to masses, yet keeping it quiet about the Republics people are still under heavy shelling by heavy artillery every day (despite the Minsk sanctions against the use of heavy calibers), and some zones over there lost electricity yesterday due to designated strikes on power stations. Ukraine does not interested to deescalate something they worked really hard in. They have lost their timing for the rapid offensive but may yet do it in May. If they not attacking in May, they gonna pull out afterwards, because, again, keeping forces deployed is costly as hell, as they are a poor country it's a heavy toll for them.
 
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RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
The best attack for Russia and China would be to simultaneously launch electromagnetic bombs and surprise cyberattack. The American army on its knees and all the military buildings in the dark. Electreomagnetic bombs and cyberattack at the same time.
Afterwards, they invade the territory of the United States.
Unlikely. Critical military operations are hardened against EMP effects. Cyberattacks on the military would not be as effective as a cyberattack on civilian infrastructure, which is absolutely plausible.

No country will ever dare attempt to invade the continental US. Forget about our military; there are over 300 million firearms in the possession of the civilian population, something no other country has. The reputation of "gun-crazy Americans" is sufficient to deter any ground invasion of American soil. Never happen.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Some people seriously believe that? Lol
Don't we have like the highest percentage of armed citizens out there? Guess they'd speculate the takeover is on hold until we pass tight gun control laws.

You have to see where they are coming from though. The 2nd Amendment clearly states SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED yet these politicians have been doing just that for as long as I can remember.

They are frothing at the mouth to take our guns away for a very specific reason. Not because of these so called mass shootings that only seem to ramp up when the Democrats get in charge of things. Trust me these nuts do not care about a few people dying at the hands of a lunatic.

They want to disarm the population so they can have total control. We are the last free people on this earth and they hate it. The minute the 2nd is gone the 1st will be right behind it as well.
They had these ridiculous bans that started after Reagan was shot and it prevented NOTHING so they got rid of it. Now they want it again, while we have Zero checks and balances so they can vote in whatever they want. The majority of the public will tell the Government to go pound sand if they pass the new gun laws and then what? The cops and national guard do not even have the manpower to enforce such a Tyrannical law.

This is where these people think the UN comes in to help. It also does not help when people have found tons of shinny new armored UN Vehicles hidden in staged positions around the nation. There have been pictures taken of them all over the place. Nobody really knows why they are where they are but it sure as hell cant be a good thing.

Everyone who doesn't care to look into anything yells Conspiracy Theory like its a game, when the CIA actually made that saying up just so people would look foolish when talking about the crap the agency was up to. You can go on Google right now and everything is a Conspiracy theory to them, even stuff that has been proven to be real years ago.

I know this site is not the place to discuss conspiracies, I just explaining why people think the UN is here in force when they should not be.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Unlikely. Critical military operations are hardened against EMP effects. Cyberattacks on the military would not be as effective as a cyberattack on civilian infrastructure, which is absolutely plausible.

No country will ever dare attempt to invade the continental US. Forget about our military; there are over 300 million firearms in the possession of the civilian population, something no other country has. The reputation of "gun-crazy Americans" is sufficient to deter any ground invasion of American soil. Never happen.
300 million is a low figure if you ask me. Just think about how long guns have been around and our grandfathers, fathers and uncles always had more than one. Twice, each time when Obama was elected we bought more weapons than the entire Chinese and Russian military had. I know that number was also dwarfed by the Covid panic.

Regaurding the Sats tracking our Boombers I will not post anything related to it as the information should have never been talked about in our military circles the first place. The less that know how its done the better. The prick that sold the information to Russia should be swigging from a rope after having all his nails pulled out for how many deaths he could be responsible for. I am sure you can do some digging and figure out the basics but too many hostile foreign actors watch what we say.
 

catalystman

Active member
You have to see where they are coming from though. The 2nd Amendment clearly states SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED yet these politicians have been doing just that for as long as I can remember.

They are frothing at the mouth to take our guns away for a very specific reason. Not because of these so called mass shootings that only seem to ramp up when the Democrats get in charge of things. Trust me these nuts do not care about a few people dying at the hands of a lunatic.

They want to disarm the population so they can have total control. We are the last free people on this earth and they hate it. The minute the 2nd is gone the 1st will be right behind it as well.
They had these ridiculous bans that started after Reagan was shot and it prevented NOTHING so they got rid of it. Now they want it again, while we have Zero checks and balances so they can vote in whatever they want. The majority of the public will tell the Government to go pound sand if they pass the new gun laws and then what? The cops and national guard do not even have the manpower to enforce such a Tyrannical law.

This is where these people think the UN comes in to help. It also does not help when people have found tons of shinny new armored UN Vehicles hidden in staged positions around the nation. There have been pictures taken of them all over the place. Nobody really knows why they are where they are but it sure as hell cant be a good thing.

Everyone who doesn't care to look into anything yells Conspiracy Theory like its a game, when the CIA actually made that saying up just so people would look foolish when talking about the crap the agency was up to. You can go on Google right now and everything is a Conspiracy theory to them, even stuff that has been proven to be real years ago.

I know this site is not the place to discuss conspiracies, I just explaining why people think the UN is here in force when they should not be.
If you truly believe you are the last free people on earth fellow human you truly are the most enslaved... The greatest delusion mankind faces is that of choice and free will. This veil of free will needs to lift before humanity destroys the planet. None of us have made a single choice outside of reason and therefore, via reason, the decisions have been predetermined.....if we don't awaken to our perfect nature very soon we will destroy this planet and everything on it ... if you want to be truly free, see yourself and everyone around you as nothing more than was always going to be...
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Unlikely. Critical military operations are hardened against EMP effects. Cyberattacks on the military would not be as effective as a cyberattack on civilian infrastructure, which is absolutely plausible.

No country will ever dare attempt to invade the continental US. Forget about our military; there are over 300 million firearms in the possession of the civilian population, something no other country has. The reputation of "gun-crazy Americans" is sufficient to deter any ground invasion of American soil. Never happen.

Hubris is not an winning defense policy.
No one was going to ever invade France either after WW1 either.
the Magot line was to see to that.

The real irony their though is this. A good chunk of France actually didn’t surrender to Germany. They fought on till Germany was defeated.
But the French government folded like dirty laundry waiting for the gym bag and surrendered most of the nation to Germany.
 

MichaelH

Member
Hubris is not an winning defense policy.
No one was going to ever invade France either after WW1 either.
the Magot line was to see to that.

The real irony their though is this. A good chunk of France actually didn’t surrender to Germany. They fought on till Germany was defeated.
But the French government folded like dirty laundry waiting for the gym bag and surrendered most of the nation to Germany.
So the challenge is not only the obvious (defeat the American military, including on American soil where presumably few punches will be pulled), but the logistics (do this while sailing across thousands of miles of ocean in numbers sufficient to invade). Pending future developments, it's not a credible threat. It is also not credible to think the Americans could invade China and take it over. Since it isn't a credible threat, you'd have to look at other ways to achieve that goal of taking over tons of land and resources. This is one reason that I don't really see a China/Russia axis as more than a short term marriage of convenience. A shackup really. You've got two major powers with expansionist goals right next to each other. There's more pushing them apart than together in the long term. So the great power scenario that worries me is the one where we represent both their biggest competitor and a potential X factor in a conflict that could hobble them both. That could look like the EMP/first strike scenario, but I'm more concerned with the opportunities that could develop down the road if our complacency doesn't turn around.
 

MichaelH

Member
And why nobody is focused on the DNR/LNR themselves? They are the main topic there, not even Russia nor Ukraine. World media is averting everyone's gazes from them by feeding crazy predictions and fanfics to masses, yet keeping it quiet about the Republics people are still under heavy shelling by heavy artillery every day (despite the Minsk sanctions against the use of heavy calibers), and some zones over there lost electricity yesterday due to designated strikes on power stations. Ukraine does not interested to deescalate something they worked really hard in. They have lost their timing for the rapid offensive but may yet do it in May. If they not attacking in May, they gonna pull out afterwards, because, again, keeping forces deployed is costly as hell, as they are a poor country it's a heavy toll for them.
A fantastic point here. As much as everyone wants to talk about whether the Russians are "winning" or "losing", the reality is that Ukraine is already out something they believe to be theirs. If Ukraine can't regain control, they don't win and the situation there is a model for future encroachment. The ongoing ambiguity creates both a potential friction point and an awful lot of human suffering.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
So the challenge is not only the obvious (defeat the American military, including on American soil where presumably few punches will be pulled), but the logistics (do this while sailing across thousands of miles of ocean in numbers sufficient to invade). Pending future developments, it's not a credible threat. It is also not credible to think the Americans could invade China and take it over. Since it isn't a credible threat, you'd have to look at other ways to achieve that goal of taking over tons of land and resources. This is one reason that I don't really see a China/Russia axis as more than a short term marriage of convenience. A shackup really. You've got two major powers with expansionist goals right next to each other. There's more pushing them apart than together in the long term. So the great power scenario that worries me is the one where we represent both their biggest competitor and a potential X factor in a conflict that could hobble them both. That could look like the EMP/first strike scenario, but I'm more concerned with the opportunities that could develop down the road if our complacency doesn't turn around.
Thus the premise that Nukes will only be used when one nation is so weak OR believes another is weak enough a strike strike, blast or emp, will not escalate.
To accomplish that it has to be assumed the nation to be attacked will not be able economically military or politically to retaliate.
asymmetric means are always being used by all against all to push each other to this point.
Culturally America is the weakest right now.
Economically we’re all weak in a manner. Russia is the strongest yet ironically the least threat to act in first strike.
the contest right now is with China and the US. The war is already on.
If China were to take Taiwan the US real influence in all of Asia is basically over. From Korea to Australia they would all have to seek economic terms from China with out the US influence.
so then what is the US left with, go into fortress mode like Russia? Won’t happen we’re to open a society and culturally diverse to close ranks.
we lose no nukes ever fired.
follow the money who benefits in the long run.
Those with and control money benefit.
 

MichaelH

Member
so then what is the US left with, go into fortress mode like Russia? Won’t happen we’re to open a society and culturally diverse to close ranks.
To loop this back to Ukraine and the more general problem, we have often assumed that Western-style liberal democracy is the aspiration of all. But even in the West, we've become increasingly disillusioned with what that looks like. The very idea of a "West" that is at all praiseworthy is unfashionable. If even we don't believe that this is the ultimate answer, what do the real choices look like in DNR/LNR and other flashpoints? Quite a bit more ambiguous, particularly when Ukraine isn't exactly a model of an open society.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
To loop this back to Ukraine and the more general problem, we have often assumed that Western-style liberal democracy is the aspiration of all. But even in the West, we've become increasingly disillusioned with what that looks like. The very idea of a "West" that is at all praiseworthy is unfashionable. If even we don't believe that this is the ultimate answer, what do the real choices look like in DNR/LNR and other flashpoints? Quite a bit more ambiguous, particularly when Ukraine isn't exactly a model of an open society.
Your completely correct a stereotypical western liberal democracy will rarely be a good fit in many if not most countries of the world.
it was hubris of the west to think that it could. But america has been beat up and beat themselves up for supporting non-democratic nations since the 60’s starting in Chile.
The national identity and governance of any nation will always gravitate back to centuries if not millennial old traditions and beliefs.
The western democratic republic manifested in the US is based on centuries of education past governance and deeply held religious beliefs.
is it the best? Well I’m an American and I have no problem believing it will.
A lot of civilian populations in oppressed nations have voiced their desire for a “democracy”. But it’s more than just “want it”.
It’s behavior it’s trust it’s education it’s willingness to compromise.,

All that said, I am no longer convinced that the classical democratic republic of the west particularly the US will survive long. Our own population is less and less disposed or educated sufficiently to administer a western government.

So the question of who or what in Ukraine is mute to the greater world.

Its what Ukrainians wish for,
Everything else is just the exercise of power and influence.

When dealing with so many divergent cultures and systems it’s always just a matter of what is least bad or most advantageous to your own nations personal interests.
 
R

Reagan

Guest
“Iranian vessels carrying oil and wheat supplies to Syrian ports will henceforth be escorted through the Mediterranean after exiting the Suez Canal, Iranian and Russian sources reveal. A recent trilateral meeting took place between Russia, Iranian and Syrian officials to find ways of breaking the US and European blockade against Syria. They launched “a joint mission to improve multilateral coordination to secure the delivery of oil to Syria.”

https://www.debka.com/russian-fleet-to-secure-sanctions-busting-syria-bound-iranian-oil-shipments/

Can someone tell me the validity of this information? How reliable is this source?
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
If you truly believe you are the last free people on earth fellow human you truly are the most enslaved... The greatest delusion mankind faces is that of choice and free will. This veil of free will needs to lift before humanity destroys the planet. None of us have made a single choice outside of reason and therefore, via reason, the decisions have been predetermined.....if we don't awaken to our perfect nature very soon we will destroy this planet and everything on it ... if you want to be truly free, see yourself and everyone around you as nothing more than was always going to be...
I was talking about the modern industrialized nations of the world, not what we all would love to have. It started that way but we all have been enslaved by the World Bank. Other than a few really stupid things, I still say what I want and do what I want in America where in Europe or Canada you can still get arrested for saying certain things based on opinion, history, let alone writing about them.
 
M

MikeG.

Guest
Has there been any indication yet if Russia has actually sent their troops back to their normal stations?

The fact that they left all of that equipment in place is concerning. Opinions I've read have been anywhere from "they're just saber-rattling again" (local talk show host) to "Russia/China are testing Biden and looking to force concessions" (another talk show host) to "Russia/China are preparing a nuclear first strike on the US mainland followed by an invasion on Europe per their commie long-term plan." (JR Nyquist). That last opinion coupled with Stratcom's full report to Congress gives me the Heebie-jeebies.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
Has there been any indication yet if Russia has actually sent their troops back to their normal stations?
My understanding is that the troops have pulled back. We'll see how long that lasts.

There are exercises scheduled for later as well, which is the official reason why the equipment is still there.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
So the challenge is not only the obvious (defeat the American military, including on American soil where presumably few punches will be pulled), but the logistics (do this while sailing across thousands of miles of ocean in numbers sufficient to invade). Pending future developments, it's not a credible threat. It is also not credible to think the Americans could invade China and take it over. Since it isn't a credible threat, you'd have to look at other ways to achieve that goal of taking over tons of land and resources. This is one reason that I don't really see a China/Russia axis as more than a short term marriage of convenience. A shackup really. You've got two major powers with expansionist goals right next to each other. There's more pushing them apart than together in the long term. So the great power scenario that worries me is the one where we represent both their biggest competitor and a potential X factor in a conflict that could hobble them both. That could look like the EMP/first strike scenario, but I'm more concerned with the opportunities that could develop down the road if our complacency doesn't turn around.
In any asymmetric pre-military conflict you try to undermine the will, public opinion, the political structures and actors. The economy and trade imbalances. You explore ways to steel technologies and weapons or economic property of the other.
You weaken there cohesion as a nations and their economic resources.
China is still playing we’re a developing nation card and succeeding very well at all of those asymmetric paths mentioned above.
I agree with you that the China Russia axis is a temporary marriage of convenience. Their relationship and exchanges spans a thousand years and it has always been an uneasy one.

The fixation on the Russian boogie man narrative of the last 15yrs in America has been either wonderful opportunity for China or a carefully crafted act of subversive.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
If you truly believe you are the last free people on earth fellow human you truly are the most enslaved... The greatest delusion mankind faces is that of choice and free will. This veil of free will needs to lift before humanity destroys the planet. None of us have made a single choice outside of reason and therefore, via reason, the decisions have been predetermined.....if we don't awaken to our perfect nature very soon we will destroy this planet and everything on it ... if you want to be truly free, see yourself and everyone around you as nothing more than was always going to be...
That’s some pretty trick linguistics there.
but it was nothing more than linguistic mumbo jumbo declaring that all systems are a lie and and everyone is blind and a slave.
That until everyone wakes up and what?
What? without a coherent purpose and will to actually deal with the many worlds we live in and deal with on a personal and public level it just vapor.
A person might be led to believe that by act of self determination they can reimagine the world and the world will mold itself to their new formed reality.
That might be the germination of it but the actual manifestation of it involves work and education and compromise and time to see it grow. That is a culture a tradition not an awakening.
At a political and nation state level it’s nothing more than seizing the narrative and language to harness the people into yet another visionaries utopia.
Which visionary leader of the last century delivered on that utopia. Rather they led their nations to war or bankrupted their nation and people and destroyed what little cohesion they had as a people. No thanks again.
 
R

Rusty Shackleford

Guest
Now this interesting....I wonder if it’ll actually go through or not, and if so, will Ukraine be a topic of discussion. My hunch is that if Putin were to invade, he’d do so after this summit, as to not spoil it. Both sides seem pretty keen on it as of now.
 
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