Ukraine April 2021

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bartok

Member
Now this interesting....I wonder if it’ll actually go through or not, and if so, will Ukraine be a topic of discussion. My hunch is that if Putin were to invade, he’d do so after this summit, as to not spoil it. Both sides seem pretty keen on it as of now.

The summit proposed by Biden it is a pretty cleaver: with the excuse of the "dialog", Biden has obteined 2 goals:

- If Putin invaded, Biden could have said: "I have tried the dialog, but Putin invaded: it is the demonstration of Russian aggressiveness."

- If Putin didn't refuse the dialog, he have to wait months for a summit that will be actually completely useless.

In my opinion, now that Russia has withdrawn the troops, the fact that the summit wheter there is or not, has a little importance: Biden has already achieved its purpose.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Member of Ukrainian parliament has suggested aiming conventional missiles at nuclear power plants in Russia.

Roman Kostenko - a member of Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada (their parliament) suggested aiming Ukrainian missiles at Russian nuclear facilities. According to him, this will allow conducting diplomacy with the neighboring country "on an equal footing."

"Moscow should know that they have nuclear power plants, such as we had in Chernobyl , and that our missiles will simply fly there."

"Now we need missiles with a range of up to a thousand kilometers, which should be in service with us and threaten Moscow preemptively."

 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
US sending US Coast Guard Cutter Hamilton to the Black Sea to work with NATO forces.

That's about the dumbest deployment order I've ever heard of. Yeah, let's send in a ship that probably has a single .50 caliber gun on the foredeck to play with heavily armed Russian Navy warships.
 

MikeG

Member
US sending US Coast Guard Cutter Hamilton to the Black Sea to work with NATO forces.

That's about the dumbest deployment order I've ever heard of. Yeah, let's send in a ship that probably has a single .50 caliber gun on the foredeck to play with heavily armed Russian Navy warships.
Could this entire scenario at this point be one of those "we all shot our wads too early and now we all need to save face" type of move - to get us to the point where Biden and Putin have a summit this summer?
 

Kushan

Member
is this a good source https://twitter.com/_/status/1387404598332305409 and does this mean

Ukraine is basically a meamber of Nato now and isn't that Russia's big red line?​

I haven't been able to find any other independent conformation on this. Looking through there other tweets, I'm pretty sure they just took pictures from one of the NATO training missions (probably from Defender Europe 21) and then slapped "oh look Ukraine is integrating with NATO" caption to it. Ukraine has been participating in NATO exercises for the last 6-7 years, doesn't mean they're a member of NATO or actually integrating into the NATO chain of command.
 

MichaelH

Member
What a surprise. It's not like Russia has any incentive, knowing that the West will do nothing to help Ukraine.
The throwaway line in the story is the most interesting. The West pushed for the Minsk arrangement which was never going to produce any sort of stability and wasn't ever going to lead to Ukrainian control. Sure it was a few years ago, but past performance is a pretty good predictor of future results.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
LOL I see the Navy E-3B is getting all the intelligence they need. They flew right up to the Crimean coast then turned around. I can imagine the people onboard were a little nervous with all the missile radars lighting it up like a Christmas tree.

Hopefully they were dumb enough to turn them on, so we can get all the updated data we need if any.

While according to the Nato charter they cant join Nato while in a conflict but it sure looks like NATO is going to make an exception ONLY because The US and Britain signed the Budapest Memorandum which all scholars today say is a legal binding treaty between nations, even if Bush jr and Hillery Clinton don't seem to think so, the typical scared of facing off against Russia excuse.

Up till this latest Russian stunt, the offical US position is that the Memo is not legally binding. Ukraine did everything by the book for the Memo-Treaty and nobody came to help so Ukraine probably told them privately, screw you if you don't help. We have plutonium going in the oven as we speak and when we have to nuke the Russian army back to Moscow it will be your fault.

France and China also signed agreeements to help Ukraine, like it was a fashion statemnt back then but they had even less teeth in the wording than the Budapest memo.
 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
"Units of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District (YuVO), which took part in the interspecific exercise at the Opuk training ground, completed loading onto railway platforms for further departure to the points of permanent deployment

The redeployment is carried out in a combined way by air and rail transport, as well as by marching on wheeled vehicles on their own along federal highways.

The 58th Army's motorized rifle formation, stationed in Dagestan, will have to cover about 1,800 km in rolling stock by rail. along the route to the point of permanent deployment.

Also, by rail, the engineers of the YuVO combined arms association in Kabardino-Balkaria will have to make their way home.

In the places of permanent deployment, all participants in the interspecific teaching are expected to receive solemn meetings with their relatives, friends and colleagues. The command of the formations decided to mark the best servicemen with valuable gifts, certificates and gratitude."

 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
"More than 100 units of military and special equipment of the marine units of the Caspian Flotilla (CFL) as part of a mechanized convoy were delivered to the point of permanent deployment in Dagestan.

The driver-mechanics made a two-kilometer march from the training grounds in the Rostov region, where a bilateral tactical exercise took place as part of a control check. Units of the marines and coastal forces of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla were recruited to it by order of the commander of the Southern Military District (SUMO), Army General Alexander Dvornikov, to check their readiness to repel sea and air assault forces.

The control check of the troops of the Southern Military District was carried out in order to increase the level of combat and operational training of troops and forces of the military district, to improve the forms and methods of conducting exercises, exercises and training, taking into account the evolving situation within the boundaries of responsibility. During April, more than 50 test tactical exercises were held in the Southern Military District."

 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Member of Ukrainian parliament has suggested aiming conventional missiles at nuclear power plants in Russia.

Roman Kostenko - a member of Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada (their parliament) suggested aiming Ukrainian missiles at Russian nuclear facilities. According to him, this will allow conducting diplomacy with the neighboring country "on an equal footing."

"Moscow should know that they have nuclear power plants, such as we had in Chernobyl , and that our missiles will simply fly there."

"Now we need missiles with a range of up to a thousand kilometers, which should be in service with us and threaten Moscow preemptively."

He should have waited till they actually had the missiles before making such a dumb threat.

Nato is looking for actual proof of a pullback. Since this is the second day in a row of this intense traffic by more than one NATO nation, I would say they do not see any evidence of a pullback but see a repositioning somewhere trying to be sneaky..
 

Kushan

Member
He should have waited till they actually had the missiles before making such a dumb threat.

Nato is looking for actual proof of a pullback. Since this is the second day in a row of this intense traffic by more than one NATO nation, I would say they do not see any evidence of a pullback but see a repositioning somewhere trying to be sneaky..
Thats the same amount a traffic thats been present for the last month. Not sure why that's considered intense at this point.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member

The phrasing of this needs analyzed very closely. If I understand correctly, Ukraine will never meet NATO standards due to the issues with Donbas and Crimea. So is this the west's version of giving Ukraine what they want knowing they'll never qualify? And if so, why? This statement will only antagonize Russia.
 
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MichaelH

Member
The phrasing of this needs analyzed very closely. If I understand correctly, Ukraine will never meet NATO standards due to the issues with Donbas and Crimea. So is this the west's version of giving Ukraine what they want knowing they'll never qualify? And if so, why? This statement will only antagonize Russia.
Too weak to help anyone, too confrontational to ignore. Do we have anything official to confirm?
 
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