Russia can achieve any of its goals in Ukraine militarily with out nukes.
The west track record of not really showing up when Eastern European “allies” need them indicate any nato help will be in the form of aid and air intelligence only.
That’s not to say nato might not actually send some little green men. Those will remain deniable.
So the risk of escalation into major power conflict is small.
As in any storm things can always take a turn for the worst but you evaluate the current facts only. Not by forecasting a hurricane when a tropical depression is moving across unusually cool ocean waters.
If NATO troops are openly positioned in Ukraine or Russia goes much beyond eastern boarders of Ukraine reevaluate then.
Diplomacy is such a deceitful business either side can spin small territory loses as cost of doing business.
The west track record of not really showing up when Eastern European “allies” need them indicate any nato help will be in the form of aid and air intelligence only.
That’s not to say nato might not actually send some little green men. Those will remain deniable.
So the risk of escalation into major power conflict is small.
As in any storm things can always take a turn for the worst but you evaluate the current facts only. Not by forecasting a hurricane when a tropical depression is moving across unusually cool ocean waters.
If NATO troops are openly positioned in Ukraine or Russia goes much beyond eastern boarders of Ukraine reevaluate then.
Diplomacy is such a deceitful business either side can spin small territory loses as cost of doing business.