I didn't know that! In this case I think that Russian intervention is pretty sure, if Ukraine doesn't open the taps very very soon.Putin is pissed that Ukraine cut off all the water to Crimea and they have no short term solutions other than to go turn on the taps themselves. He lost all credibility with Armenia.
It's hard to respond, but this idea was suggested in 2014-2015. I crearly remember that, at that time, Russia said that It would consider the removal from SWIFT as a declaration of war. I don't know if was a bluff, but there was no more talk about that.Unless the sanctions actually have like serious bite (for once) and the Russian Federation gets removed from SWIFT. They wouldn't like that much. You think they'd react militarily/asymmetrical to that?
There is a general war rule that offensive side must have a 3 to 1 advantage. Ukrainian forces have a 250.000 count (according to Intel), while breakaway regions have around 40.000 to 50.000 in total, which is not enough to defend. Russian troops are around 100.000 according to the latest reports, which makes is enough for defence combined with breakaway regions, but not enough to actually make an all-scale offence, only effective counter-attack up to enemy defence lines. If we actually see at least a 300.000 to 400.000 force, which is a huge pile of troops, that would be a sign.
This has been for a while and there are some water pipes already in construction. Crimea has alternative water supply sources, not enough, but it is not a case when they have no water. Since situation has been like this for a while I don't see it as dire.I didn't know that! In this case I think that Russian intervention is pretty sure, if Ukraine doesn't open the taps very very soon.
Pretty much everyone here expects SWIFT removal to happen at some point. Won't be a surprise.It's hard to respond, but this idea was suggested in 2014-2015. I crearly remember that, at that time, Russia said that It would consider the removal from SWIFT as a declaration of war. I don't know if was a bluff, but there was no more talk about that.
Yes, quality does matter, but when we talk about two armies that used to be one not that long ago, with a lot of similar equipment and with Ukraine being supplied by US, it is not THAT different.the 3 to 1 rule is intended to be applied between 2 armies pretty equal in training and technolgy. Russia is greater than Ukraine in all these features. Furthermore, if Russia want to do a large offensive, I think that the goal is not to destroy Ukraine, but to reach the key points to take control of the nation, as the parliement for example: it is not "compulsory" to kill all the poors 250.000 Ukranian soldiers. Finally, is likely that Ukranian army will completely disperse if Russia attacks.