We have two antagonist in Russia and China, it’s better to keep them divided and Russia’s much less of a threat to us.
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too late
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For those who think the US could win a war against Russia / China
I do not know why some believe the US could win a 2 front war (China will take the opportunity and will attack Taiwan). Should it come to it, the US is in big trouble
Since the Civil War, the US has not experienced a war in its own field. This will be different this time.
I hope it never happens, otherwise good luck, the US will need it.
It might be too late” but if it had been handled properly it could have been countered.
russia has a long history of antagonism with China and more direct risk to China in actuality.
All of these worst case situations carry with them the use of nuclear weapons.
The use of nukes ruins economies.
ruining economies is bad for business.
The matter of this escalating to a conflagration continues to rest on the assumption that at least one of the three could be defeated absolutely and quickly. With minimal risk of significant destruction to home country.
Or one of the three have their back so against the wall and desperate that they resort to nukes.
History shows that mistakes in diplomacy and war often result from misreading your enemies intentions or capability.
This is where the current risk of nuclear exchange exist and it is still minimal.
That does not mean there is minimal risk of conventional conflict. It is high in fact but if it comes as things now stand escalation beyond conventional regional conflict in Eastern Europe or SCS is unlikely. “Small bites” digest better.
If open conflict happens in either then the calculus of a nuclear exchange would have to be reconsidered.
conventional conflict does not preclude or for-ordain the use of nukes.
If conventional conflict occurs, other than local shelling in a region. Going to 4 or 3 depending on the circumstances would be warranted in my opinion.
Unfortunately the time needed to rise from defcon 5 to 3 or even 2 will sadly be very short because of the technology and coms. There is no predictable ramp up to it that I see. Humans are involved.