Ukraine march 15

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Mooclear

Guest
I don't believe for a second that Ukraine is going to go on the offensive in Crimea.
Of course not. I have my own suspicions of what is going on. I think this is strong posturing of western allies and as a result Ukraine was gifted 'a few things' in the past several hours. Everything else is just a way of letting Russia know if they have a problem it's their move and their choice. A choice of course that won't result any hostile action because Russia's options are limited to 'making Angry Wojack faces'. Biden is asserting that American interests are not fucking around. Check mate!
 

AgentOrange

Active member
Some on the ground intel for you,,,,,,the Turkish connection with Kiev is a fact......people I know in Kiev told me loads of Turkish men visit Kiev to party and enjoy the things they cant enjoy at home. Next to that the Turks have an interest in Crimea as they have a cultural link with the Tartars living there. In my opnion attacking Crimea equals WW3 the Russians have turned the peninsula in a fortress and will never give it up.....
 

AgentOrange

Active member
There is chatter the C17's were shipping Turkish drones. Turkish and Isreali drones were a massive success in the war against Armenia in the latest Nagorno- Karabakh war. The drone warfare is a massive game changer. Drones make weak more powerful, they can release low budget high precision weapons and this was not possible before. A flare up if any will be in the Donbass area and looking at local footage the Russians are preparing a push. The drones could be a signal to Putin to zip it. The Donbass area is full of trenches and dug in tanks bmps etc...ideal targets for drones.
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
There is chatter the C17's were shipping Turkish drones. Turkish and Isreali drones were a massive success in the war against Armenia in the latest Nagorno- Karabakh war. The drone warfare is a massive game changer. Drones make weak more powerful, they can release low budget high precision weapons and this was not possible before. A flare up if any will be in the Donbass area and looking at local footage the Russians are preparing a push. The drones could be a signal to Putin to zip it. The Donbass area is full of trenches and dug in tanks bmps etc...ideal targets for drones.
Losing Donbass may be a political suicide for Putin, Karabakh is an example, people lost trust of their leader who left many casualties of a long conflict in vain.

Ukrainian forces are ready, they have brought mechanized brigades and artillery.
Officer inspectors on place are not checking their forces about the "compliance with peacekeeping regulations" anymore, they are checking their actual combat readiness, state of the troops, equipment, vehicles, supply, medical etc.

As of now, the possible involvement of Russia is the most disturbing factor for Ukrainians, and the only thing that is stopping them yet. They fully understand, that this might end up as an end for the Ukraine as of the state. One of the possible courses of Russia, that it might launch an invasion force from Crimea following a line Mariupol-Odessa (check spoiler), and connecting it's borders to Moldova for getting in touch with blocked Russian base in there, and taking Odessa's harbor is great bonus.
Right after that, Poland might make use of the situation and take closest regions (mainly Lviv), and maybe Romanians will come for the "piece of cake" as well and it seems that Russia doesn't have any objections to that. Neighboring countries will start tearing country apart and assimilate it's regions. (i know this sounds crazy, but the latter part is seriosly considered to be a real possibility)

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AgentOrange

Active member
Losing Donbass may be a political suicide for Putin, Karabakh is an example, people lost trust of their leader who left many casualties of a long conflict in vain.

Ukrainian forces are ready, they have brought mechanized brigades and artillery.
Officer inspectors on place are not checking their forces about the "compliance with peacekeeping regulations" anymore, they are checking their actual combat readiness, state of the troops, equipment, vehicles, supply, medical etc.

As of now, the possible involvement of Russia is the most disturbing factor for Ukrainians, and the only thing that is stopping them yet. They fully understand, that this might end up as an end for the Ukraine as of the state. One of the possible courses of Russia, that it might launch an invasion force from Crimea following a line Mariupol-Odessa (check spoiler), and connecting it's borders to Moldova for getting in touch with blocked Russian base in there, and taking Odessa's harbor is great bonus.
Right after that, Poland might make use of the situation and take closest regions (mainly Lviv), and maybe Romanians will come for the "piece of cake" as well and it seems that Russia doesn't have any objections to that. Neighboring countries will start tearing country apart and assimilate it's regions. (i know this sounds crazy, but the latter part is seriosly considered to be a real possibility)

Lviv is thriving, its university has produced high quality low priced programmers and IT industry. The Ukraine as a country might be a mess but their EU facing borders are very well guarded.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Seeing chatter about fierce fighting breaking out in Eastern Ukraine... At work, no time to look into it further.
 
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