Ukraine march 15

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Silent

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Ukrainian Parliament adopted law on reform of military commissariats, allowing President to mobilize reservists without declaring full mobilization

 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
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Ukrainian Parliament adopted a resolution on the escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict, urges world community to condemn aggressive behavior of Russian Federation.

https://t.co/hoflNAJTcX?amp=1
They are humilated by combination of facts such as casualties due to explosions on their positions (which most likely were caused by themselves), and most recent that Germany and France has decided to continue discussion on the situation with Russia, thus excluding Ukraine (likely Ukraine didn't received updated instructions from US curators yet and is not ready to continue talks, or simply refusing). Or, this act simply been made to attract more attention towards them.

Press Secretary for the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov has spoken in detail about ongoing developments during talks with the Norman Format, (which is very interesting since it's rare of Peskov to speak in detail, he's usually keeping his mouth shut). Shortly, things are very bad, Ukraine calls for Norman Format meetings, but can't come up with agreements that would be acceptable for other sides, yet deeming Minsk regulations outdated, without providing anything to replace or willing to get in contact with heads of People's Republics.
- And if this tension escalates into hostilities? Will Moscow be able to refuse support to the DPR and LPR, given how many citizens with Russian passports live there?
- We sincerely hope that no one will go for this madness. We just really hope so. There is nothing left to say. - Dmitry Peskov

And now, once we know that diplomacy has failed, Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) gives off this statement: "The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine accused Russia of the latest escalation in Donbass, demanded to stop strikes and withdraw troops from Donbass and return the territory to Ukraine." They directly accusing Russia now.
On top of that, The Parliament of Ukraine adopted a bill that provides the right to call-in (or mobilise) reservists for six months during a "special period". Such a special period has been in effect in Ukraine since 2014.

As i can see, there are no more questions left about if there will something happen or not, it is clear already - There will be war.
The only obstacle that holding them down for now is weather, it's worsened a lot lately. Most recent war journalists footage made on defence lines shows that there are high humidity, rain/snow falls, a fog. They have to wait before they stat something.
 

Silent

Power Poster
Update: Russia: First Deputy Chairman of the National Duma Defense Commission - Alexander Sherin, said Russia was ready to defend the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) in the event of an attack by the Ukrainian Army.

Dmitry Peskov Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia — Presidential Press Secretary: "The provocations of the Ukrainian Army and the current escalation in Donbass threaten "a dangerous path of power."

"In the case of the Ukrainian Armed Forces carrying out a general offensive against the Donbass, it is not excluded that the Russian Army will intervene directly.

Sherin told Moscow radio the following: “We need to warn the Kiev side that Moscow will respond promptly and firmly if there is any attempt to break the Minsk agreement, disrupt the ceasefire system. ".

 

Silent

Power Poster
Update: Reports that at least six Turkish drones, the Bayraktar TB2, were spotted on the Crimean border.
Turkish Bayraktar TB2 (previously tested by the Ukrainian army during exercises in Mykolayiv region) is also assembling at the Yagorluk test site near Crimea.
Ukraine says Russian military buildup threatens its security

 
S

Splinters

Guest
Who will attack first?

When?
If I had to guess, I would say Ukraine will attack first, mostly because they're being left out of talks with Russia, France and Germany. Personally, I think Russia is attempting to cultivate an image of only defending "Russian citizens" so they can occupy Donbas without much foreign intervention.
 
M

Mooclear

Guest
Who will attack first?

When?
Meh, same as it ever was. Some shooting/shelling back and forth and there and then Ceasefire #32 Not discounting that yes, several hundred humans in the region are going to die (Just like every other time the ceasefire wavers) but anyone expecting 'Tanks in 30 minutes(tm)' do not understand how this works. It is of my opinion Russia has more to gain by sustaining this quagmire/clusterfuck than decisively ending it or overtly intervening. They might send in more 'little green men' to bolster Donbass but nothing more.
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Who will attack first?

When?
Ukraine first, they are burdened with influence of US and Turkey weighing on them, who invested in this war too much, and such a vast deployment of troops can't last forever, it hurts budget. Donbass rebels grow stronger by the time as well, many left the area and were demobilized years ago, because they do not wish to sit meaninglessly in trenches under Ukraine's artillery without a right to open return fire because of Minsk regulations. Now Ukraine acts like Minsk regulations are not a thing anymore, this fact encourages Donbass volunteers and supporters from Russia who will be pleased to see that things let loose, as there will be real action by the rules of war, no suffocation by politics anymore.

Russia has no obligations to do anything there, the situation slowly going in their favor in peace mode anyway. They don't have anything they need to do in this region in the near future, and not enforcing anything in the region, annexing Donbass? It has no value, their struggling economy doesn't need this empty devastated region to burden them, they are happy with keeping this stalemate. They have an upper hand in diplomacy, as going in same direction and making deals with the leaders of Europe (Germany & France) who are also interested in peace and ceasefire - they are not happy with Ukraine escalating things and warmongering, Europe do not need war as they don't want to deal with waves of Ukrainian refugees running in them, they don't want Turkey growing stronger and getting more influence and experience, they don't want to give a reason for US to break fruitful deals with Russia like Nordstream and Sputnik-V.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
What will be the US response to hostilities? Will Russia try for another land grab? Will Russia make for Kiev? (Just throwing that last question out there for giggles.)
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
What will be the US response to hostilities? Will Russia try for another land grab? Will Russia make for Kiev? (Just throwing that last question out there for giggles.)
To grow another heap of dirt to throw at Russia. US is in great need of accusations to launch against Russia. They are trying to cut-off Nordstream-2 and restart that old policy of political pressure. If Russia let go of Donbass, it will waver Putin's position and build-up populace at even more disarray, so that out of question. If Russia to hold what's left, US will launch an accusation and sanctions campaign at them.

As for the land grab, unknown. Everyone will be very careful. Donbass might expand their territory of control, like breaking in Kramatorsk to neutralize that airport or something and some of them have their bravado all like, quote: "we'll march straight to Kiev, regardless of what assholes in Moscow think", but they will be kept on leash of course. Don't forget Slavyansk though, it was completely daring spontaneous operation of one group initiative, and something like that might happen again. Russia might take the south of Ukraine in very daring scenario, to take advantageous southern positions with harbors and launch water into Crimea. And to teach Ukraine a lesson of course, because Ukraine does not care of their people casualties to please foreign curators, they will be throwing people into the fray as much as it's needed, but a decisive strike against Ukrainian important points of infrastructure will throw them off-balance, it will be the real damage. One of the plans in taking these areas probably includes doing it like with Crimea - swift and quiet, by ceasing control of an area by capturing vital points and administration, it is possible that no one would raise a finger to resist and main forces will be too occuppied holding off Donbass. Maybe it won't be too bad for them, as putting Ukraine in state of hopelessness and inability to remain a useful servant for foreign rivals will worth the sanctions that would come anyway?
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Well, it seems that Zelensky has found a way to make some money for himself in upcoming war, in an interesting way. These are documents with their plans - they plan to build new Donetsk airport on place of Kramatorsk airfield during April 2021 - April 2023. For the first year, budget will give 1.5 billions of hryvnia (Ukraine currency) immediately, right now. Further years budget will consist only of 230 millions of hryvnia each, but that doesn't matter. Because Zelensky will send his forces to attack, right after that Donbass will launch a counter-offensive and seize this area of Kramatorsk airfield that is less than 60 kilometers from the frontline. Yeah, and no one will ever ask where all that money went. Genius.
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