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Ukraine march 15

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#BREAKING: U.S. European Command raised its watch level from possible crisis to potential imminent crisis (the highest level) last week in response to the buildup of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.

 
Khomchak: Twenty-eight Russian battalion tactical groups stationed on border with Ukraine

As of March 30, twenty-eight battalion tactical groups of the enemy are stationed along the state border of Ukraine and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, namely in Bryansk, Voronezh, Rostov [regions] and on the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea. Lately, the Russian Armed Forces have been building up troops near Ukraine’s border in the north, in the east and in the south, namely in Bryansk and Voronezh regions and in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, pulling the forces from different regions of the Russian Federation under the guise of control exercises for the winter period of training, maintaining combat alert and general combat readiness for upcoming West 2021strategic exercises,” Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak said at an extraordinary plenary session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on Tuesday, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
 
Sneak peek photo of Anna Kolisnik communicating via phone messenger at yesterday meeting of Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine Parliament)
Anna Kolesnik is a member of Zelensky's party: "Servant of the People". Some photographer, during a speech of the Ruslan Khomchack, (Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, supreme commander basically), has managed to capture contents of her screen which shows that she sends messages:
мы слушаем хомчака
Нужно сваливать из этой страны
(original content so you can check up in translator yourself, though it won't translate the word "сваливать" accordingly. It will say it's "get out" while in reality of Russian speech it has more dire meaning more like "get out quickly, for escaping a threat")
Translation: "We are at the Khomchack's speech
Gotta get the hell out of this country"
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Russian forces are deploying massive amounts of military hardware into #Crimea. One of the largest deployments I've seen in recent memory.

 
Russian forces are deploying massive amounts of military hardware into #Crimea. One of the largest deployments I've seen in recent memory.

For all this footage that had accumulated there are lack of explanation that Russian Southern Military Region has started a massive check-up of it's forces this month. This includes exercises, movements, all kinds of activity of the military within it's region, so we're locating the movements even deep from the border. Though, we cannot say that it is unrelated to current events. Some convoys are not going towards the border, going to train and such instead, but forces are indeed on alert and better state of readiness than before.
 
U.S. military's top officer Gen. Mark Milley spoke by phone with Russia's top officer Gen. Valery Gerasimov following buildup of Russian forces on Ukraine's border: Russian defense ministry
 
#US officials concerned about the number of #Russia|n forces massing on the border with #Ukraine. The number and type do not match any existing training exercises - CBS News

 
I'm going to throw this possibility out there for debate.

Ukraine accumulated troops and equipment for an assault on the Donbas. Russia can't afford to just assume that's all they're going to do, so...they also reinforced their border. As long as Ukraine doesn't attack Russian positions, things should be fine. Any recent troop movements in and around Crimea are part of these mentioned checkup/exercises.
 
I'm going to throw this possibility out there for debate.

Ukraine accumulated troops and equipment for an assault on the Donbas. Russia can't afford to just assume that's all they're going to do, so...they also reinforced their border. As long as Ukraine doesn't attack Russian positions, things should be fine. Any recent troop movements in and around Crimea are part of these mentioned checkup/exercises.
Russia will provide support indirectly - communications failures here and there, drones are falling down on ground or something... And i follow tendencies among Russian "volunteer" groups and i can say for sure that they have become much better and experienced as well. They have cleared Syria and Central Africa off the troubles, and raising in numbers though possibly they may lack in equipment, but "Russian export" will cover this up as well, for a low price...
Ukraine sensible plans are going towards retaking their own in Donbass and nothing else, and i think their Turkish friends wants to keep it that way. If they harm a little of actual Russian personnel directly in order to provoke - Russia grit their teeth but will absorb as they did in Syria and Karabakh (though some of covert actions will be much more violent in response).
If Ukraine to inflict serious damage on Russian assets, it would mean they either went crazy or US are willing to sacrifice Ukraine for the sake of enforcing their policy and getting back in the game after 4 years long absence. That would be a sign that people there are going dirty and Russia will have to go in in order not to lose face before it's people, and to claim advantageous grounds in face of imminent heavy sanctions...Or at least to do some serious bombing to cripple Ukrainian assets and infrastructure, to make that they are no more a bother.
 
Milley also spoke with his Russian counterpart, Chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov. The two “exchanged their views on issues of mutual concern.”
 
"F.ck, military equipment is being transported to the border with Ukraine in such volumes that there are not enough railway platforms for civilian customers."

 
So what are the chances of a Defcon 4, or worse?
So far, the United States isn't doing too much to involve itself. At least, not overtly. So the chances of a direct confrontation between the U.S. and Russia are low at the moment. Things can change if Russia makes another land grab.

If Russia makes a beeline for Kiev (not happening), then you can start to sweat.

Mind you, Russia is willing to defend Crimea with nukes. If serious headway is made by Ukraine to take it back (not happening), then that could be another issue.
 
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