Ukraine May 2021

M

Mike G

Guest
All this is starting to freak me out. The amount of forces they’re moving around appears meant for a larger conflict than eastern Ukraine. There were those reports a couple weeks ago regarding several Russian cities to prepare to receive mass casualties and testing their blast doors in subways. I know folks here aren’t into Nyquist but is it likely that something more nefarious is at play here? First strike on the US followed by an invasion of Europe?
 

MikeG

Member
So guys, is this it? We've got Russia bringing all this equipment to their western border which seems to be far more than what they need to take Eastern Ukraine, and there's been a lot of other "stuff" going on which we've seen reported such as the Russian government telling some cities across Russia to prepare for mass casualties, testing of blast doors, the emergency meeting of the Federation Council etc. What's going on? I know many of you here do not like doomsday porn and dont think much of guys like JR Nyquist, but could we in fact be at a point where a surprise attack on the US homeland may be imminent - followed by an invasion of Europe? I worry about this, and have been extremely worried about it the last month - so much so that it affects my sleep. Whats an honest assessment of this situation? Are we out of time? Thanks for your hard work and time.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
A surprise attack by Russia on any country besides Ukraine is extremely unlikely. Putin may be trying to expand Russia's borders, but he's not a madman. Everything you mentioned is more of a signal to NATO that he's ready for a furball if NATO wants to get involved. There's nothing to lose sleep over at this point.
 

MikeG

Member
A surprise attack by Russia on any country besides Ukraine is extremely unlikely. Putin may be trying to expand Russia's borders, but he's not a madman. Everything you mentioned is more of a signal to NATO that he's ready for a furball if NATO wants to get involved. There's nothing to lose sleep over at this point.
Thanks RiffRaff, and I apologize for the double post. I wasn't logged in properly when I made the first one and I didn't think it went through.

I would imagine - and hope - that the folks in STRATCOM also watch closely at what's going on and are highly vigilent.
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
All this is starting to freak me out. The amount of forces they’re moving around appears meant for a larger conflict than eastern Ukraine. There were those reports a couple weeks ago regarding several Russian cities to prepare to receive mass casualties and testing their blast doors in subways. I know folks here aren’t into Nyquist but is it likely that something more nefarious is at play here? First strike on the US followed by an invasion of Europe?
Judge by the clear military logic instead - the amount of forces is barely enough to do anything worthwhile in Eastern Ukraine. In order to pull off the offensive you need the at least three times more forces. 100-200 thousands of Russian servicemen roaming around the borders against the whole country? That is unlikely. Take on Europe? Do not listen to freak media, there is no force that is capable of taking on Europe (except the US that already holds it).

Mass graves and subways doors are the activities of Civillian Protection services - remnant service since the Soviets, they supposed to be on guard and maintain at all times. They do it on their own whim, while fiddling with municipal local governments, without any word from the higher-up federal government. It's basic media bait made over regular inspection checks and exaggerating, that they focus on it because it's trendy. If you google news on Russian language about this topic, you'll find such check-ups mundane every year by the seasons.
So guys, is this it? We've got Russia bringing all this equipment to their western border which seems to be far more than what they need to take Eastern Ukraine, and there's been a lot of other "stuff" going on which we've seen reported such as the Russian government telling some cities across Russia to prepare for mass casualties, testing of blast doors, the emergency meeting of the Federation Council etc. What's going on? I know many of you here do not like doomsday porn and dont think much of guys like JR Nyquist, but could we in fact be at a point where a surprise attack on the US homeland may be imminent - followed by an invasion of Europe? I worry about this, and have been extremely worried about it the last month - so much so that it affects my sleep. Whats an honest assessment of this situation? Are we out of time? Thanks for your hard work and time.
Bringing what equipment, exactly? Old rusty BMP's from storages to show off on camera? It's nothing. All the real weaponry that works in the modern warfare and Russia counts on always was stationed there in readiness - NATO Reconnaissance aircraft conducts weekly/daily flights regularly for many years with a reason. Federation Council is not an emergency meeting, but an unplanned one, to discsuss new directions given by the President and how to accomplish them - regular boot licking of Russian great Emperor on media, of "how much we support and work for him" and such. (Also there are some stirrup within the Council, but it's completely internal matters of those persons relationships and i don't think i can say it here anyway).

And invasion on US Homeland is literally impossible by anyone. Not even Soviet Union with all it's might could pull off something like that - and never wanted, it's crazy. It's a nightmare even for US themselves to leave their shores to relocate and fight somewhere else, great logistical programs throughought the years of Cold War were launched to deal with it. But to invade them? There's not a single plan of such exists, because it's impossible. The only thing that can do this is an ICBM, but that's not an invasion - it's called a strike. I see that you don't bring up an invasion, but just a strike that brings nothing is fruitless and a waste, especially against the US who are not the type to soak up the damage, but eager to avenge.

Sleep tight, it's all regional. Not a single NATO member is ready to give the life of at least one of their man for the sake of Ukraine. (maybe except the Turkey). All they have left to do is massive media white noise and screams. Russia do understands that and will not harm any Western assets for no good reason, and most likely will just negotiate and trade over the situation as usual.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
No worries. Like I tell people when I conduct Situational Awareness and Active Shooter Response training: "All of this information is to help you become more aware, not paranoid. Being paranoid is my job."
 

MichaelH

Member
So guys, is this it? We've got Russia bringing all this equipment to their western border which seems to be far more than what they need to take Eastern Ukraine, and there's been a lot of other "stuff" going on which we've seen reported such as the Russian government telling some cities across Russia to prepare for mass casualties, testing of blast doors, the emergency meeting of the Federation Council etc. What's going on? I know many of you here do not like doomsday porn and dont think much of guys like JR Nyquist, but could we in fact be at a point where a surprise attack on the US homeland may be imminent - followed by an invasion of Europe? I worry about this, and have been extremely worried about it the last month - so much so that it affects my sleep. Whats an honest assessment of this situation? Are we out of time? Thanks for your hard work and time.
I think the key thing to understand here is that Putin/Russia have goals and any sort of aggressive action on their part is going to, at least in their minds, be done to further those goals. A scenario like that basically guarantees that Russia is destroyed or at least unrecognizable without much if any ability to project power. If a situation got really crazy, mad gambles like that become a little more credible. But in the status quo, Russia is able to make incremental gains at very little cost without doing anything that forces the hand of the West. Leaving three nuclear powers (US/UK/France) with nothing to lose and facing an existential risk when any one of them can bring an end to your great power status is not the kind of gamble that makes any sense at all, not even for an aggressive expansionist power. Speaking as a non-staff member here, I think what the staff is trying to do with the Defcon level (in part) is highlight dynamics where great and terrible gambles like that might start to make a little more sense.

If you think Putin is a madman, then perhaps you can't count on reason. But it is also worth noting that we have seen some very interesting personalities with their fingers on the button and yet they have not pushed it. Stalin was a butcher of epic proportions and yet he didn't use an atomic bomb. The Brezhnev regime was extremely paranoid and thought it possible/likely that the West might strike first, all at a time when many in America were concerned greatly with how the forces lined up for a Soviet counterforce first strike. Gorbachev watched his regime and personal power collapsing before his eyes. Yeltsin was a raging alcoholic.

Outside of Russia, we have had a North Korean regime that is unstable at best and certainly has the ability to make life a lot worse for their American puppets to the south. Israel has had a couple of wars in which they probably had nuclear weapons that could have been used in a circumstance where their state was threatened. They also have some reason to think about striking first even today considering what you see in Iran. India and Pakistan have been in an ongoing conflict at various levels for 40+ years. Both Nixon and Trump faced domestic peril and the total loss of personal power at the hands of their political enemies.

All of that is not to be a Pollyanna and insist that nothing bad can happen because it hasn't happened yet. It can happen and, in the very long run, it probably will happen. But it's worth remembering that when it comes to nuclear war, there are an awful lot of factors pushing against it. Even with unstable leaders and potential military advantages and wildly different value systems, the argument against nuclear war is very compelling. Hang in there man. I get it and I've been there.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Russia warned the west not to cross his red lines, something he did not define but the statements from aids are pretty stern warnings to NATO. Dont try to cross our red line, so what did NATO and Ukraine do? They Kicked that football right through the goal post and over his line,, by Ukraine hosting NATO Generals and leaders to work on Integration into NATO right after Putin said he had pulled back his troops a few days prior.

These were Putin's thoughts on the matter in 2018 and nothing has changed. He wants and needs NATO to back off. He will not sit by and watch Ukraine of all countries join NATO. Wont happen, hell will freeze over first. Putin has a lot of power in Russia but if NATO starts ramping up activities in Ukraine all bets are off. Way too many Russian Generals will be chewing his ear off, begging for Russia to drive NATO back with an initial invasion of Ukraine before many western forces are even in the firing line. He dose not want to attack NATO obviously but he will not hand over Ukraine.
Way too many Russians believe the Nazis are behind all this thanks to a few and a lot of Russian Propaganda lol. They will fight to the death to stop this Fascism.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday warned NATO against cultivating closer ties with Ukraine and Georgia, saying such a policy was irresponsible and would have unspecified consequences for the alliance.
“We will respond appropriately to such aggressive steps, which pose a direct threat to Russia,” said Putin.

“Our colleagues, who are trying to aggravate the situation, seeking to include, among others, Ukraine and Georgia in the orbit of the alliance, should think about the possible consequences of such an irresponsible policy.”
 

Kushan

Member
This doesn't deal directly with Ukraine, but I think it's starting to become multinational crisis at this point:

Meh. Like they're not already for just being a member of NATO. They've said the same thing to everyone that is, has thought about, or is thinking about joining US/NATOs missiles defense.

Edit: I should have looked at the dates, as Michael points out below article is from 2015.
 
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Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
I detect local Donbass sources indicating ferocious artillery shellings (122 & 152mm calibers, dozens of them) right now. With videos and such.
Situation does not de-escalate though we don't hear much about it on medias. Maybe they are preparing for 9 of May?

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Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Senior Defense Department officials said that close to 80,000 Russian troops remained near various strips of the country’s border with Ukraine, still the biggest force Russia has amassed there since Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014.​
The Russian military did order some units back to their barracks by May 1 — and they did move from the border — the officials said. But many of the units left their trucks and armored vehicles behind, a signal that they could go back if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia decided to deploy them again.​
President Biden said on Tuesday that it was his “hope and expectation” that he would meet with Mr. Putin during a trip to Europe in June that includes attending a NATO summit in Brussels. The administration has paired the offer of a meeting, an important symbol of Moscow’s continuing influence on the world stage, with a toughening of sanctions on Russia for its cyberattacks, election meddling, threats against Ukraine and poisoning of Aleksei A. Navalny, the opposition leader.Administration officials said they were taking the sustained troop presence at the Ukrainian border as a message from Mr. Putin that he could match — and, in fact, dwarf — the number of troops taking part in a NATO military exercise in Europe, which officially began on Tuesday. That exercise, called Defender Europe, will include about 28,000 troops from the United States and European allies participating in maneuvers over the next two months across Albania and other parts of Eastern Europe on Mr. Putin’s doorstep.

 
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