"What if" speculation: the Ukraine goes nuclear?

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DarkNoon

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Anyone here worried Ukraine may use a nuclear device if the ball drops and Russia bum rushes through Ukraine?

Ukraine has expressed its feeling as fight or die. Lose the fight, feel they would be willing to take it there.

It's a reasonable thought for nuclear nation. May have gotten rid of the weapons. Though Ukraine has a VERY LARGE nuclear infrastructure, even gets most of its energy from nuclear power,... that could be very easily turned into a weapons program secretly on a small scale. They have all the stuff and infrastructur to do so.
 
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Train

Well-known member
Anyone here worried Ukraine may use a nuclear device if the ball drops and Russia bum rushes through Ukraine?

Ukraine has expressed its feeling as fight or die. Lose the fight, feel they would be willing to take it there.

It's a reasonable thought for nuclear nation. May have gotten rid of the weapons. Though Ukraine has a VERY LARGE nuclear infrastructure, even gets most of its energy from nuclear power,... that could be very easily turned into a weapons program secretly on a small scale. They have all the stuff and infrastructur to do so.
I don’t think they could make one that quickly

I’m also not sure if Russia would go any further than the Donbas region
 

DarkNoon

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I don’t think they could make one that quickly
My assumption is that they already have a few small nuclear devices secretly created under their massive civilian nuclear infrastructure. To think otherwise would be very unwise for anyone.

They walk and quak like a duck. Must be a duck. To have a very large nuclear infrastructure and to not weaponize it on any scale? Okay...

Doing so on a small secret level would be the only way they get away with it. They have had 8 years to do so since Russia invaded last time.
 
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DarkNoon

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I’m also not sure if Russia would go any further than the Donbas region
The way the West keeps pushing it Russia will feel it has no choice but to go all in I am afraid if things go hot in Ukraine.
 
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DEFCON Warning System

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My assumption is that they already have a few small nuclear devices secretly created under their massive civilian nuclear infrastructure. To think otherwise would be very unwise for anyone.
This I would have to agree with. We have to acknowledge at least the possibility that Ukraine may have some nukes stored somewhere.
 

DarkNoon

Dedicated Moderator
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This I would have to agree with. We have to acknowledge at least the possibility that Ukraine may have some nukes stored somewhere.
15 reactors:
Ukraine is heavily dependent on nuclear energy – it has 15 reactors generating about half of its electricity. As of 2021.

3 Operational Uranium Mines:
According to World Nuclear Association, Ukraine's three operating uranium mines produced 801 tU, as of 2021.

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They are also experienced in the matter as well. It wouldn't take much at all to weaponize their civilian program secretly. Again they have had 8 years to do so.
 

Citizen-21

Well-known member
Anyone here worried Ukraine may use a nuclear device if the ball drops and Russia bum rushes through Ukraine?
No way. Basically, just a suicide. If they strike military target - that would do moderate damage and change overally nothing. If they strike populated area - It would immediately solidify Russian rhetoric on a world stage, about Ukrainian regime being crazy terrorists.

Anyone here worried Ukraine may use a nuclear device if the ball drops and Russia bum rushes through Ukraine?

Ukraine has expressed its feeling as fight or die. Lose the fight, feel they would be willing to take it there.

It's a reasonable thought for nuclear nation. May have gotten rid of the weapons. Though Ukraine has a VERY LARGE nuclear infrastructure, even gets most of its energy from nuclear power,... that could be very easily turned into a weapons program secretly on a small scale. They have all the stuff and infrastructur to do so.
Even if so, the puppet state has no feelings, no will, no control over any decisions. Russia is aware of it, so if that would happen, expect proper retaliation. No ICBM's towards New York yet because no using striking massive civillian target, but Carrier Strike Group taken down might be a proper retaliation as an eye for military target. Again, i think Russia trusts in Americans that they keeping Ukrainians tight on leash and would never allow them to do so, unless they want to go apocalypse route. Among Ukrainians. only extreme radicals would consider that, and they are on the tight leash - West uses them only to escalate things to a certain degree, but never more. They are not crazy to let situation go out of their hands.

Still highly unlikely that Ukrainian regime itself would consider this possibility or preparing for it - they are simply thugs and corrupt cowards. The moment the Russian advance, they will rather run away of their country like Afghanistan regime did. There will be no Last Stand. Remember that picture of politicians chatting "let's get the hell out of this country" whenever head of Armed Forces talking about a possibility of a war?

Still, overall impact of nuclear strike from some small (no thermonuclear) bomb would change nothing. You won't do much against military targets by a small dirty bomb and almost no means of delivery.
It certainly is a problem for Ukraine. They are essentially the battleground.
And you are correct, Ukraine is a hostage of other power, their role is a battleground, nothing more. "No Man's land", "Grey zone", something like that. Ones they put them in NATO colors, games would be over for them.
They are also experienced in the matter as well. It wouldn't take much at all to weaponize their civilian program secretly. Again they have had 8 years to do so.
Experienced? To keep this program up and running, you need scientist staff that to this day is greatly degrated. Money, which Ukraine has none. I've scanned through some funding documents and it gives me impression that government prefers funding corrupt programs for laundering money, i don't see these people doing some patriotic last stand project. And most important - secrecy. Russians mundanely post secret documents out of their headquarters online, it is logical that their spies are keeping this subject within their line of sight, this would never go unnoticed.
 

Citizen-21

Well-known member
To me makes it all the more possible they built nuclear weapons with their massive nuclear infrastructure in the 8 years of on and off again war with Russia.
They are way too desorganised and busy with tearing each other throats. Only focused and determinated regime could pull off something like that. Ukraine lives not only externally, but also internally, and there are of course a certain stirrup going on. Poroshenko and Zelensky administrations were not friendly at all. The only ones who could organise that - are external powers, and they see nothing good out of it. Just accepting them into NATO would be a much better detterence.
 

DarkNoon

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Staff member
They are way too desorganised and busy with tearing each other throats. Only focused and determinated regime could pull off something like that. Ukraine lives not only externally, but also internally, and there are of course a certain stirrup going on. Poroshenko and Zelensky administrations were not friendly at all. The only ones who could organise that - are external powers, and they see nothing good out of it. Just accepting them into NATO would be a much better detterence.
You can insult them all you want or attack their credibility. Still doesn't excuse any the facts I have given. It is possible and to think otherwise is really unwise sir. Who says they got rid of them all too? They may have not needed to make any. They may have kept a few.
 

Citizen-21

Well-known member
You can insult them all you want. Doesn't excuse any the facts I have given. It is possible and to think otherwise is really unwise sir. Who says they got rid of them all too? They may have not needed to make any. They may have kept a few.
I'm throwing a bucket of refreshing cold water over fearmongering that keeps everyone on edge these days. I still see all of this unrealistic. And even if it's possible - not really enough of an impact, because it will expedite both advances of Russia and fall of Ukraine.
 

DarkNoon

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still see all of this unrealistic. And even if it's possible - not really enough of an impact, because it will expedite both advances of Russia and fall of Ukraine.
You think they would really care? You said yourself their thugs. So why would they care if their going to lose? :rolleyes:

It's not fearmongering it's a true analysis based of true possibilities.
 

DarkNoon

Dedicated Moderator
Staff member
Because they will definitely prefer comfy life in property they bought at West rather than simply dying.
So your saying Ukraine leadership won't be executed or jailed if Russia takes over? Okay.... no sir.

I am sure a russian cruise missile is pointed at each Ukrainian leaderships houses.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Is it possible that Ukraine has nuclear weapons, either manufactured or left over from the USSR? Yes.

Is it likely? No.

Does it impact our discussion and analysis? No. Trying to predict what's going to happen based on actual facts is difficult enough. Adding hypotheticals into the mix would bog us down.

Let's try to stay focused on the information we have, not speculation.
 
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