What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

[DucknCover]

Please take the melodramatics elsewhere.

I just gave my realistic view on this. If you didn't notice this is now like a cowboy duel.

Who is going to be the first to blink?

But in modern terms they have pistols.
So we'll find out if they will cock their pistols or not.

I think the U.S. is bluffing and will back down and China believes this too, I say in my opinion just to be safe.
And from then everything could go downwards ⬇ for the U.S because who would believe in their lies anymore...
But isn't this better than a war? I think it is and who cares about the American EGO.
Biden is too afraid for a war against a major power.

dogs that bark seldom bite

 

[Obreid]

I just gave my realistic view on this. If you didn't notice this is now like a cowboy duel.

But in modern terms they have pistols.
So we'll find out if they will cock their pistols or not.

I think the U.S. is bluffing and will back down and China believes this too, I say in my opinion just to be safe.
And from then everything could go downwards ⬇ for the U.S because who would believe in their lies anymore...
But isn't this better than a war? I think it is and who cares about the American EGO.
Biden is too afraid for a war against a major power.

dogs that bark seldom bite

Even if there is some naval altercation between China and US it doesn’t mean nuclear war. And these statements and declarations from China aren’t new. They have claimed the area within the nine dash line theirs alone for a long time.
Yes it is all a long term strategy to exert dominance over these international waters. And deeply troubling. But not a declaration of war.
Im just expressing my unlearned opinion here though.

 

[DucknCover]

Even if there is some naval altercation between China and US it doesn’t mean nuclear war.

Well it's not about the US navy until they join the fight.
And I already wrote here that I think if Taiwan doesn't build/own or use nukes they will lose this war against China.
Even the U.S. can't win this war without nukes. So in other words they have to give up or use nukes.
Or they fight the conventional war (Taiwan, USA, South Korea and Japan) until they lose eventually but that is stupid,
maybe you would think that's what they are going to do @Obreid.
But I don't see a million U.S. soldiers in Taiwan yet.
And China already said it will use the nuke against Japan.
So without the soldiers, there are only two options left and none of them is a conventional war.

So what do you think will happen?

A nuclear war or a Taiwanese surrender.

I think they will fight alone against China and then surrender but nuclear war is close so I give it a personal DEFCON 2.

 

[RiffRaff]

I think they will fight alone against China and then surrender but nuclear war is close so I give it a personal DEFCON 2.

Except it's NOT close. It's not even close to being close.

Let me phrase it this way: If your personal level is *really* at 2, you should either have a shelter dug, buried, and stockpiled or you should be bugging out of the city by now. DEFCON 2 is the point where you either seal yourself in your bunker or you head for the hills. And you're doing neither.

That being said, my wife do not like where Covid and global geopolitics are heading, and we made an offer on a property an hour outside of Indy, well beyond any detonation effects from any targets in our region. I doubt we'd even feel a gust of wind from the overpressure wave. And we have a nice solid basement to protect us from fallout. That should eliminate the need to make a choice on bugging out or sheltering in place. There should no longer be a need to bugout if we get this property. We just want to get out of the city while we have the opportunity.

 

[DucknCover]

Except it's NOT close. It's not even close to being close.

You are sure about this?

you either seal yourself in your bunker or you head for the hills. And you're doing neither.

I explained it earlier, but I hate to repeat myself it's my personal Defcon level for Taiwan/Japan.
If U.S. will back down like in Afghanistan it has DEFCON 4.
But I disagree to Defcon 5.

 

[RiffRaff]

You are sure about this?

As sure as anyone can be. While we have observed some concerning military movements by both the PRC and the ROC, it has all been conventional movement. There have been zero indications of elevated states of alert with strategic forces by either the PRC or the US.

I explained it earlier, but I hate to repeat myself it's my personal Defcon level for Taiwan/Japan.
If U.S. will back down like in Afghanistan it has DEFCON 4.
But I disagree to Defcon 5.

And I have stated repeatedly that I could also make an argument for DEFCON 4 for the SE Asia theater, but not anything higher. You seriously need to review what each level actually means at a STRATEGIC level. DEFCON 3 is unwarranted at this point, let alone DEFCON 2.

DEFCON 2 means nuclear war is imminent, and that threat level is not supported by the facts in evidence.

Fact #1: China will not use nuclear weapons over Taiwan territory for any reason. Taiwan *HAS* no nuclear weapons, and it would completely defeat the purpose of taking the island.

Fact #2: Any invasion of Taiwan by China will remain conventional if there is no interference from other parties.

Fact #3: The US getting involved in a conventional war between China and Taiwan complicates matters, but it will remain conventional at first.

Fact #4: Neither China nor the US is eager to be the first one to use a nuclear weapon in combat in over 70 years. Even the use of a small tactical nuclear weapon would have devastating widespread global consequences, both political and economical.

So, here is how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan that crosses the nuclear threshold would play out in my opinion, and the Director can correct me if he thinks I'm off reservation:

Day 1: China launches a massive air assault on Taiwan's defensive installations along the coast, most likely at night. Taiwan will conduct a purely defensive war, so mainland China will probably not be targeted. DEFCON Warning System would immediately set DEFCON 4.

Day 2: Intense fighting continues between the PRC and ROC, mostly air and naval forces. Formal complaints will be lodged with the UNSC and many countries will threaten China with economic sanctions, but the fighting will continue. The conflict still remains localized to the PRC and the ROC.

Days 3 - 7: Taiwan defenses will begin to become overwhelmed and they will ask for military support from multiple allies, including the United States. I cannot predict which countries will get involved and which ones won't, but for this scenario I am involving the United States. The United States begins to provide both direct and indirect military support to reinforce Taiwan defenses. DEFCON Warning System will most likely set DEFCON 3 at the point that US forces and PRC forces begin directly engaging each other.

Days 8 - 14: At some point during the hostilities, either China or the US will make a mistake that will escalate the situation. It doesn't matter what that mistake is, but now PRC and US naval forces are beginning to engage each other directly whereas prior to this point the conflict had primarily been an air campaign conducted by the ROC Air Force, US Air Force, US Naval Aviators, and US Marine Aviators. DEFCON Warning System would most likely remain at DEFCON 3 until an American strategic asset - aircraft carrier or submarine - is destroyed by China. At that point, DEFCON 2 would become a serious possibility. Again, we're going with the assumption that the US will remain in the fight.

Beyond 14 days: The first use of nuclear weapons will most likely be conducted by the United States, either as retaliation for the loss of a carrier or because China launches a massive invasion fleet with hundreds of thousands of soldiers towards Taiwan. The weapon would be tactical in nature, either destroying one of China's naval strategic assets or taking out the invasion fleet. DEFCON 1 would be immediately declared if we hadn't already done so.

Where it goes from there I'm not willing to predict. The variables after that become too fluid to gauge with any accuracy. But once that nuclear threshold is crossed, the situation will become extremely dangerous for quite some time.

That is how nuclear scenarios play out. Not counting the use of nuclear weapons by terrorists or a delusional leader, it will always begin as a conventional conflict and escalate from there. The days of a surprise nuclear first strike by one superpower against another are mostly gone.

So calm down, take a breath, and reel in your dogs of war. We've got a long way to go to reach DEFCON 2 with China and Taiwan.

 

[DucknCover]

These are not facts but your opion. @RiffRaff

Fact #1: China will not use nuclear weapons over Taiwan territory for any reason. Taiwan *HAS* no nuclear weapons, and it would completely defeat the purpose of taking the island.

Wrong Taiwan is not defending alone, it's allies have nukes or building them. (Japan, USA, India)

Fact #2: Any invasion of Taiwan by China will remain conventional if there is no interference from other parties.

Sure but t how realistic is that?

Fact #3: The US getting involved in a conventional war between China and Taiwan complicates matters, but it will remain conventional at first.

If the US can accept to lose the navy battles and if China agrees not to use nukes.

Fact #4: Neither China nor the US is eager to be the first one to use a nuclear weapon in combat in over 70 years. Even the use of a small tactical nuclear weapon would have devastating widespread global consequences, both political and economical.

Who knows that for sure, the U.S. has used the nuke and every other bomb they could build in all those wars. Why should they care about China or the environment now.
Aren't they still using depleted uranium as ammo

Day 1: China launches a massive air assault on Taiwan's defensive installations along the coast, most likely at night. Taiwan will conduct a purely defensive war, so mainland China will probably not be targeted. DEFCON Warning System would immediately set DEFCON 4.

Not a nuclear threat in the view of the Director here I think it's still Defcon 5 for him.

We've got a long way to go to reach DEFCON 2 with China and Taiwan.

Unsure about that.
-----------------
My WW3 somewhat realistic movie scenario for Taiwan is like this:

Day 1: 1 minute, China informs the USA, Japan and South Korea not to interfere
10 minutes: China launches a overwhelming massive ballistic and cruise missile beheading strike against the leadership of Taiwan.
30 minutes: Chinese aircraft bomb strategic taiwanese military targets.
45 minutes, United states start to intercept chinese bombers.
60 minutes, Chinese navy encounters U.S. navy
90 minutes, Some US-Navy carriers are sunk, U.S. president orders a nuclear retaliatory strike which destroys chinese docks and parts of the chinese invasion force.
120 minutes, China pressed with the back to the wall orders nuclear strikes against Japan to detere USA
150 minutes, U.S. submarines launch nuclear missiles against chinese cities.
200 minutes, with nothing left to lose China launches an all out nuclear war, Russia joins knowing it's the ultimate chance to get rid of the USA
300 minutes, no more rules, final use of all WMD stockpiles to decimate each other

The End
------------------

My realistic chinese biased scenario is like this:

1 minute, China informs the USA, Japan and South Korea not to interfere
10 minutes: China launches a overwhelming massive ballistic and cruise missile beheading strike against the leadership of Taiwan.
30 minutes: Chinese aircraft bomb strategic taiwanese military targets.
60 minutes: suprised and impressed by chinese agressive actions Japan and South Korea are detered and order their navies back, USA now alone doesn't want to mess with China.
90 minutes Taiwan commanders orders a cease fire
2 hours later: Chinese troops invade peacefully ㊗

The End

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

If the US can accept to lose the navy battles and if China agrees not to use nukes.

If the US is shellacked in a naval battle, the US will withdraw. They aren't going to fight to the death over Taiwan. The US public won't allow it.

Who knows that for sure, the U.S. has used the nuke and every other bomb they could build in all those wars. Why should they care about China or the environment now.
Aren't they still using depleted uranium as ammo

Did the US use nukes in Korea? Vietnam? Afghanistan?

As long as China doesn't use nukes, the US won't. The US isn't under direct threat. (If China is stupid enough to attack the US mainland, all bets are off.)

My WW3 somewhat realistic movie scenario for Taiwan is like this:

Day 1: 1 minute, China informs the USA, Japan and South Korea not to interfere
10 minutes: China launches a overwhelming massive ballistic and cruise missile beheading strike against the leadership of Taiwan.
30 minutes: Chinese aircraft bomb strategic taiwanese military targets.
45 minutes, United states start to intercept chinese bombers.
60 minutes, Chinese navy encounters U.S. navy
90 minutes, Some US-Navy carriers are sunk, U.S. president orders a nuclear retaliatory strike which destroys chinese docks and parts of the chinese invasion force.

That is where you lose me. The US isn't going to use nukes to retaliate over losing carriers. The US will back off.

The US won't be the first to use nukes. This isn't Japan WWII. This isn't a case of a million allied lives vs. vapourizing a couple enemy cities.

My realistic chinese biased scenario is like this:

This is probably a very realistic scenario.

 

[Totality 🇺🇦 🇮🇱]

The US public won't allow

They won't have a choice. Battle decisions are made in seconds and minutes now instead of hours, days, months.

The US people or civil goverment won't be able to stop it.

If a battle broke out between CCP and US naval forces it would be the General's & Commanders making the call. It would spiral on both sides.

I don't see either side being able to keep up with how a modern battle field today changes so quickly and rapidly against two modern naval forces. Not to mention the lack of chain of command in CCP navy too, not as organized as they want you to believe.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

If a battle broke out between CCP and US naval forces it would be the General's & Captains making the call. It would spiral.

Not that fast. Not in this case. If the US Navy gets destroyed, the US is going to back off and decide what to do next. And that is going to go to the President. And the President isn't going to knee-jerk.

 

[Totality 🇺🇦 🇮🇱]

Not that fast.

It would be pretty fast. Read the stats lately on the missiles and anti sub tech US & CCP have on their high tech ships? If a battle broke out it will be swift and sever with no time for Civil Government to react.

What happens after that no one can truly know.

 

[DucknCover]

It would be pretty fast.

The chinese carrier killer missiles are hypersonic. I don't see any reliable defense against them at this time.

China's New Aircraft Carrier Killer Is World's Largest Air-Launched Missile - Naval News

H I Sutton sheds some light on China's latest aircraft carrier killer: The CH-AS-X-13 air-launched anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).

www.navalnews.com

 

[Obreid]

There is no new technology on the horizon from another nation I’m particularly concerned about.
I agree with Riff Raff I think.
Im seeing so many things in the news world wide. Insane covid restrictions in many nations and a really serious public animosity and revolt against them. It’s like the leadership in so many western nations is going one way towards dystopian lockdowns and their citizens are saying screw you.
I’m currently faced with get the shot or get fired. Half of the employees at work are in the same boat and responding with religious exemption.
im faced with submit or face financial ruin and loss of insurance for my wife.
where does that leave me? As a casualty of a quiet war or an enemy of my own government.?
Some here might mock that but that IS the reality of thousands of American citizens. It’s creating a powder keg of u rest and resentment.
we have proud boys in Portland chasing off Antifa agitators and seemingly now antifa shooting back at them.
so many western nations are completely on their heads with what their citizens are demanding and their governments blindly press on with this mantra of trust the experts.
Yet those same experts failed miserably with the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The British parliament sanctioned president Biden for how it was carried out. Britain publicly condemned the US President for failing.
its like the western nations are just boiling and getting ready to blow their lids. Paris is in its 8th week of protest of Macon’s restrictions. People in Australia Britain Germany are clashing with police over what they sincerely believe is overreach and bad policies of their governments.
It’s this chaotic leadership and citizen polarity that concerns me. Almost none of the western nations are in a position of leadership or public trust to deal with any kind of national strategic conflict coherently.
The public trust is lost and no one knows who’s in charge. As Scott adams recently tweeted. Half the country is concerned that Biden’s not in charge anymore and the other half is concerned he is in charge.,
This is a seriously bad place for the western nations to be in and this is my greatest concern. We are not prepared to respond appropriately to any kind of escalation of hostilities with other nuclear powers.

 

[DucknCover]

I’m currently faced with get the shot or get fired. Half of the employees at work are in the same boat and responding with religious exemption.
im faced with submit or face financial ruin and loss of insurance for my wife.

How melodramatic, get the shot. Let's go.
The vaccine seems to kill way less people than the virus.
And if this vaccine will kill you then the virus would have done that with ease.

 

[Obreid]

Well I’ve made it a year and a half with out it killing me so why would I take a experimental shot from a government and specialist who’ve been wrong about so much to do with the virus over the last 1 1/2 years.
Does the shot work then take it. Your protected, I’m happy and get on with your life. Or is it just a matter of submission that motivates you.

 

[Guest]

why would I take a experimental shot

Its fully approved by the FDA it's not experimental.

 

[DucknCover]

Well I’ve made it a year and a half with out it killing me so why would I take a experimental shot from a government and specialist who’ve been wrong about so much to do with the virus over the last 1 1/2 years.
Does the shot work then take it. Your protected, I’m happy and get on with your life. Or is it just a matter of submission that motivates you.

My motivation isn't your protection, it's the protection of all the others who must die because of you.
You should take the vaccine to make your contribution to society.
I wonder why you can be so cold hearted towards the elderly and the sick.
The final consequence of this selfishness is the isolation in a quarantaine camp.