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Why War Over Ukraine (Probably) Won’t Happen.

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
The news media is beginning to catch up to what a lot of people know already: Tensions are getting hot over there in the Ukraine region.

Russia has built up its forces along the Russian/Ukraine border. Ukraine is worried about an invasion or possibly a coup. NATO is worried that Ukraine could fall and put Russian forces on the border of a NATO country.

All this against a backdrop of a weak United States that lost Afghanistan and can’t/won’t stand up to China.

Russia has warned the NATO that moving military assets into Ukraine is a red line, and given Russia’s paranoia over being invaded, it is a warning that should be taken seriously. NATO has warned Russia against invasion, promising…something if they do. That “something” is unspecified.

Should you be worried that the United States and Russia will go to war over Ukraine?

Not at this point in time. The odds of a military clash between NATO and Russia are very low at this moment, but the odds aren’t zero. Let’s explore the reasons behind this analysis.

Here is what is likely going to happen:

The first scenario is that nothing happens. Russia bluffs the West because they don’t want Ukraine to join NATO. As long as Ukraine is in turmoil, NATO will have no interest in bringing Ukraine into the Alliance. Why invite a headache?

Second is that Russia actually does invade. In this case, they swallow up the southeast as they make a beeline for Moldova and create the land bridge they’ve always wanted. That is where it will stop. NATO will whine and cry, but ultimately do nothing beyond sanctions.

The reason for the non-response by NATO is that a lot of countries are dependent on Russia for energy and trade. A war has a habit of interfering with that. All Russia has to do is turn off the oil and gas spigots and you have a pretty cold populace in Europe who are not really going to want to put on an extra sweater for the sake of cities even the worldly Europeans can’t find on a map.

Ukraine needs to face the harsh truth that the world sees it as a battleground and not as an ally. But Russia and NATO are using the country as a buffer between them.

The third scenario is probably the most likely. Russia assists with a coup or a fraudulent election in Ukraine which replaces the government with a more friendly one. This gives Russia the land bridge it wants and a country buffer with Poland all without firing a shot. This also solves the problem of Crimea.

Since the Russians believe this is what the United States did already with the previous government of Ukraine, why not turn around and do the same thing back at them?

The fourth is the most unlikely scenario: A full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia all the way to Kiev. This is the nightmare NATO is considering. And this is what is prompting all those scary warnings from Western governments.

Russia knows NATO would have to respond in the event of a full-scale invasion.

Could Russia pull it off? Sure. While one could point out that the current assets Russia has deployed at the borders aren’t really sufficient for a full-scale war, it doesn’t need to be. The Ukraine military would be roll-stomped long before NATO could respond sufficiently. And it is for sure NATO is not going to be bombing indiscriminately. Defending Ukraine and starting WWIII are two different things.

Here is the problem, and this is why we say there won’t be war over Ukraine “PROBABLY”.

Russia doesn’t want to tangle with NATO. As much as they want Ukraine, they don’t want a war. So even if they do invade, they are going to make sure they don’t hit anything that could force a response.

And NATO doesn’t want a war. So they are going to be very careful as to what they do in response to an invasion. Russian soldiers will have very little to fear from NATO bombs, as they won’t be targeted.

At least, that is the plan both sides have. Trouble is, military doctrine is that no plan lasts beyond the first ten minutes of battle.

NATO is paranoid that Russia is going to try and take Kiev. Doesn’t matter if Russia really is. That is what NATO is worried about. And so anything Russia does is going to be read in that light. This invites misinterpretation. And in this era of hypersonic weapons, there is precious little time to think. Decisions have to be made before all the information is there. Do you respond based on what “probably” is happening?

Russia could easily misread NATO movements. Already Russia has warned against invading Russia.

NATO invading Russia? Is Russia serious?! Only the most deluded person could think that is even a remote possibility. Yet there it is. And so Russia looks at NATO through that prism. Must be all those centuries of being invaded that made Russia see conspiracy theories everywhere.

So even though neither side is looking for war, both sides are looking at the other as if the other guy wants war.

Never a good recipe for stability.

Ukraine continues to poke NATO, hoping that it can stir fears and prompt NATO to come to its rescue. Could be because Russian troops are still occupying parts of Ukraine. That can make someone perturbed. But it also means we have to be suspect of any intelligence coming out of Ukraine. To hear them talk, Kiev is about to fall in the next thirty minutes.

But it is to Ukraine’s advantage to make the worst of the situation. After all, they have no chance against Russia, and the bear is looking at them, licking its chops.

Still, despite how things look, Russia is very aware of the stakes, and they really don’t want a scrape with NATO. Russia isn’t insane.

But keep an eye on things. It is in the public interest to be aware of what is happening.

You know…just in case.

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In the customary evaluation of will a conflict occur between nato and Russia your correct.
But this isn’t the Cold War scenario. Putin thought he could threaten NATO with battalions of tanks crossing the boarder and slice off another chunk of Ukraine and nato wouldn’t respond because it wasn’t worth it.

NATO doesn’t have to send battalions of troops into Ukraine. They flood Ukraine with advanced armament and SF troops to “advise”. Add to that a bloody contested air cover and Russia ends up with a very bloody face not just a nose.
If he risk launching iskanders into Poland or nato ships and the escalation to full blown war is baked in. So can he risk that? I don’t know

The talks between US and Russian foreign secretaries it appears on the surface were pretty unproductive. Hi how are you what the hell are your thinking, don’t push me or I’ll push back.

Putin has had his bluff called, what to do what to do.
I’m a pragmatist about relations with Russia they could have been a great ally but both sides handled it so badly that opportunity is past for now.

Putin is not afraid of nato invading Russia he’s afraid of Russians wanting to be more apart of Europe.
Power and control at home is the fear not NATO invading Russia.

And this is no longer just about Ukraine.
It’s Lithuania, Estonia Georgia Latvia as well as Ukraine. Those nations are watching what happens and being very outspoken about wanting closer alliances with the west. This is a stack of dominos waiting to be kicked over.

Will it result in full blown war? I don’t believe so but it’s as precarious as anytime post WW2 I believe.
Hasn’t that been the argument for MAD. We won’t see full scale war again in Europe because of the nukes.
But that doesn’t preclude a nasty conflict where nato weapons and select units are doing everything they can to make Russia pay to high a cost in blood and treasure to slice off another piece of Ukraine and save face at home.
 
And this is no longer just about Ukraine.
It’s Lithuania, Estonia Georgia Latvia as well
Indeed. This is growing to a much wider issue not just about Ukraine. The issue is becoming NATO itself and how it conducts itself in Eastern Europe AS A HOLE.

These issues and tentions are forming far beyond the simple matter of Ukraine with a much larger scope of issues now.

One cannot simple logically guess that a war won't happen just by looking at Ukraine. Because the tentions are forming & stemming to a much larger array of issues besides Ukraine.
 
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Indeed. This is growing to a much wider issue not just about Ukraine. The issue is becoming NATO itself and how it conducts itself in Eastern Europe AS A HOLE.

These issues and tentions are forming far beyond the simple matter of Ukraine with a much larger scope of issues now.

One cannot simple logically guess that a war won't happen just by looking at Ukraine. Because the tentions are forming & stemming to a much larger array of issues besides Ukraine.
I do agree a war is unlikely. But the possibility has been closer than I've seen in quite sometime. Or at least closer than anyone would want it to be at least.
 
Indeed. This is growing to a much wider issue not just about Ukraine. The issue is becoming NATO itself and how it conducts itself in Eastern Europe AS A HOLE.

These issues and tentions are forming far beyond the simple matter of Ukraine with a much larger scope of issues now.

One cannot simple logically guess that a war won't happen just by looking at Ukraine. Because the tentions are forming & stemming to a much larger array of issues besides Ukraine.
Then just let the USSR reconstitute that’s what your opening the door to.

Let’s just exit Europe as gracefully and tactically as we exited Afghanistan.
 
Then just let the USSR reconstitute that’s what your opening the door to.
I'm not saying that at all. Just that tentions are spreading far & wide in Eastern Europe over NATO actions in general. I'm not against these actions from NATO. Just laying out the reasonings behind the tentions.
 
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Then as I said we should just withdraw from nato now because that’s the message it sends.
We’re wasting military assets and money being their as a empty shell.
You can argue Ukraine isn’t apart of nato but that’s not the practical reality now in Europe.
And to be honest better to recognize this and vocalize now rather than fold up if it goes hot.
 
Russia is not bluffing when it comes to keeping NATO out of Ukraine. Russia was not joking when they said it was a "red line".

That is their "Cuban Missile Crisis" and they ain't having it.
But is that Russia’s decision to make.

This is not a corollary of the Cuban missile crisis, that is a incorrect comparison.
The issue then as it is today putting nukes in Cuba or Ukraine.
Russia and Cuba continued till the precent day with close military ties.
The issue isn’t about putting nuclear missile in Ukraine.

It is Ukraine making their own decisions as an independent nation.
It is not Russia’s choice to use force to make them part of their sphere of influence. If they want to have a spear of influence over Ukraine respect their boarders and independence as a nation and quit behaving like it’s the Cold War 2.0. Let them earn the respect of their neighbors
 
Sure it is in the sense that NATO in Ukraine is something that Russia will not allow at any cost.
Ehh comparable but dont think it's all the same pretences.

Now if NATO moved nuclear capable hardware/missiles into Ukraine than sure it's the exact same thing.

But to have connections to NATO isn't comparable. Because Cuba has always kept a Russian connection and wasn't a fight or flight issue. Was only a issue once hardware was moved in.
 
Ehh comparable but dont think it's all the same pretences.

Now if NATO moved nuclear capable hardware/missiles into Ukraine than sure it's the exact same thing.

But to have connections to NATO isn't comparable. Because Cuba has always kept a Russian connection and wasn't a fight or flight issue. Was only a issue once hardware was moved in.
Russia doesn't have a right to say Ukraine can't be a ally to NATO. Because US has not threated war over Cuba just for being freinds with Russia.

So long NATO doesn't move high tech or nuclear capable hardware into Ukraine anything should be up for game so to speak if we are using Cuba as a metaphor.
 
Ehh comparable but dont think it's all the same pretences.

Now if NATO moved nuclear capable hardware/missiles into Ukraine than sure it's the exact same thing.

But to have connections to NATO isn't comparable. Because Cuba has always kept a Russian connection and wasn't a fight or flight issue. Was only a issue once hardware was moved in.
We can't look at this from a Western perspective. We have to see things as a Russian sees it.

Russia has already stated it doesn't want missiles that close to it. So there is your CMC as a Westerner would see it.

But Russia also has an irrational fear of invasion. So it doesn't want any enemy that close to it. And Russia is willing to fight to keep it that way. This is why the issue is as serious as the CMC was to America. The US was willing to go to war to keep missiles out of Cuba. Russia is willing to go to war to keep NATO off its doorsteps.
 
Ehh comparable but dont think it's all the same pretences.

Now if NATO moved nuclear capable hardware/missiles into Ukraine than sure it's the exact same thing.

But to have connections to NATO isn't comparable. Because Cuba has always kept a Russian connection and wasn't a fight or flight issue. Was only a issue once hardware was moved in.
Right now, it’s not comparable

But I think Putin’s minder is that it could lead to it. Missiles in Ukraine/Eastern Europe would be a nightmare situation for russia so they want to avoid it
 
I’m a pragmatist about relations with Russia they could have been a great ally but both sides handled it so badly that opportunity is past for now.
I agree. However, if the United States were to engage in realpolitik and realize that we're better off having Russia on our side, it would help us contain China.

I have always said that we completely ruined our foreign policy priorities in the 90s. Instead of encouraging stability and cooperation with Russia, we expanded NATO further east. In addition, instead of imposing severe sanctions on the PRC after Tienanmen Square, we developed strong trade ties with them.

We should've forged strong ties with the Russians, and shunned the Chinese. Besides, as terrible as this sounds, Russia is much more similar with us culturally than China is.

I'm an optimist. After seeing the sinister turn that China has taken, I think that we still have a chance to normalize relations with Russia. As long as Putin doesn't invade Ukraine.
 
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