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With North Korea, we do have cards to play

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
The crisis with North Korea may appear trumped up. It’s not.

Given that Pyongyang has had nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles for more than a decade , why the panic now? Because North Korea is headed for a nuclear breakout. The regime has openly declared that it is racing to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the United States — and thus destroy an American city at a Kim Jong Un push of a button.

The North Koreans are not bluffing. They’ve made significant progress with solid-fuel rockets, which are more quickly deployable and thus more easily hidden and less subject to detection and preemption.

At the same time, Pyongyang has been steadily adding to its supply of nuclear weapons. Today it has an estimated 10 to 16. By 2020, it could very well have a hundred. (For context: The British are thought to have about 200.)

Hence the crisis. We simply cannot concede to Kim Jong Un the capacity to annihilate American cities.
Some will argue for deterrence. If it held off the Russians and the Chinese for all these years, why not the North Koreans? First, because deterrence, even with a rational adversary like the old Soviet Union, is never a sure thing. We came pretty close to nuclear war in October 1962.

And second, because North Korea’s regime is bizarre in the extreme, a hermit kingdom run by a weird, utterly ruthless and highly erratic god-king. You can’t count on Caligula. The regime is savage and cultlike; its people, robotic. Karen Elliott House once noted that while Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was a prison, North Korea was an ant colony.

Ant colonies do not have good checks and balances.

If not deterrence, then prevention. But how?

Full article at Washington Post
 
I read this article a few hours ago. The author is far to optimistic about the cards the United States has to play. Everything comes down to one fact, after Libya why would North Korea trust America? If you were Jong-Un would you give up your nuclear weapons? I sure as heck wouldn't. To better put yourself in Kim's shoes how would the United States feel if Chairman Jong-Un asked us to unilaterally give up OUR nuclear arsenal? He feels the same way about his arsenal.
 
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
And second, because North Korea’s regime is bizarre in the extreme

Not to me. To me they seem like regular Stalinists. I know and have known plenty of them. Like any other human with a strong belief-system they are quite pleasant and interesting in the short term, but may be a bit tiresome in larger doses.

I actually learned in this forum that they are Stalinists [thank you!]. I always thought they were Maoists (i have no idea why I never bothered to check) and therefore found them strange. With that peice of information in place, it all seems quite logical to me. Maybe all those hours studying commies makes them seem less bizarre to me than to an amateur at Washington post ? Perhaps the writers of the Washington post should consult the DWS forum more often?
, a hermit kingdom

It's called the Juche-doctrine and was forged as the Soviet union denouced Stalin, leaving North Korea without allies.
run by a weird,

That might be true. If I was to be looked up to by several million people, Id try to reach my match weight. I think you would need to know or examine someone, though, and see them in their natural habitat to conclude on wierdness.
utterly ruthless

That is true. Stalinist are complete collectivists locked in an eternal class-struggle. Individualists will see them as completely ruthless, both when it comes to others and themselves.
and highly erratic god-king.

Agreed. The person-cult is stronger in Korea than it ever was in the Soviet union. I find it ridiculus. But then again, it's to expect that the north find their version of stalinism, as the south have found their verson of capitalism. That is a strange version as well. I belive it is a testament to what happens to a people subjected to massive psyop from two sides. They completly loose their own identity.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIQToVqDMb8[/youtube]

[Yes, I am aware that the song is ironical critizism, that's why I chose it.]
You can’t count on Caligula.

You can count on him being Caligula. One of the more predictable Roman bosses.
The regime is savage and cultlike;

The analogy to cults is correct. The psychological mechanisms of cults and totalitarian regimes are quite similar. As for savage, that is the opposite of a cult. A savage will follow his own lust. A Cult-member will follow a very strict code of conduct.
its people, robotic.

A matter of point of view. The 12 classes of modern commercial lifestyle-selves will undoubtably view the Victorian self as stiff, constricted and robotic. I, being a victorian at my core, view the lifestyle-selves as empty and robotic, easy manipulated with a short attention span.
Karen Elliott House once noted that while Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was a prison, North Korea was an ant colony.

I wonder what she said about Saudi Arabia and north American university campuses?

Important to (side)note that comparing humans to insects is something often connected to genocide. One should refrain if possible. North Korea is a through and through militarized society. They are still human.
Ant colonies do not have good checks and balances.

I'm not sure what that means. Ant colonies can be trusted. They will do what they do best. They will be the best ants possible.
If not deterrence, then prevention. But how?

I agree. It's a pickle. Let them have ICBMs and try to negotiate or intervene and be remembered as the ones initiating the deadliest war since 1945. I'm quite happy it's not my call.
 
Unabashed propaganda with little basis in fact and no intelligence value.
 
Navarro said:
Unabashed propaganda with little basis in fact and no intelligence value.

So an unenlightened article? Why not help people in stead of bashing them? All points to that if the Washington Post wants to be taken more seriously, they would benefit from checking out DWS.
 
Doc said:
So an unenlightened article? Why not help people in stead of bashing them? All points to that if the Washington Post wants to be taken more seriously, they would benefit from checking out DWS.
I've done enough educating recently. Today, in this thread, I'm commentating.
 
apollonights said:
Everything comes down to one fact, after Libya why would North Korea trust America? If you were Jong-Un would you give up your nuclear weapons? I sure as heck wouldn't.

This is why you don't kill foreign dictators or allow them to be killed. It is better if the worst thing they fear is heading off into retirement at some exotic beach. Toppling dictators is one thing and might instill fear, but knowing when they fall that a grave immediately follows isn't a good way to encourage someone to give up nuclear arms or stop repressing his people.
 
apollonights said:
Everything comes down to one fact, after Libya why would North Korea trust America?

They never will. And rightfully so. And If Trump ain't careful, South Korea's trust may falter as well.
If you were Jong-Un would you give up your nuclear weapons? I sure as heck wouldn't.

From my cold, fat k-pop hands.
 
Suspension for suspension...that's all it will take plus some trust. Why the hell does USA think it can continue with it's Nuke Programme but attempt to dictate that the NORK cannot? Sick of US stomping around like a petulant child, NORK is hard on it's populace, but US isn't without faults...heath care, kids being fed rats and homelessness to name but a few. US would be better off focusing its effort homeland.
 
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