World At A Fever Point?

[DarkNoon]

The world feels like it’s at a fever point.

Europe’s on edge. Taiwan/China is on a knife edge given recent news over past two weeks. DPRK and ROK keep upping the ante. The U.S. looks like it’s pulling back in some places while quietly flooding assets back into the Middle East, maybe to bomb Afghanistan for an airbase again, maybe to hit Iran again, who knows. Pakistan and Saudi just signed a defense pact, and India/Pakistan looks like it’s slowly heating back toward a flashpoint. I don’t remember anything in modern or Cold War history where this many fires were burning at the same time. We’ve had flashpoints before, sure but eight, ten, twelve at once? I don’t think so.

Feels like a polycrisis, and it’s getting louder/spreading by the day, by the week it seems.

 

[DarkNoon]

No immediate threats I can see.

What makes it dangerous is the stack of “medium” fires burning everywhere at once.

A couple fires you can manage, a dozen, not so much.

Also sure I am not only one getting tired of staring at the horizon waiting for one of these “mediums” to lurch without warning.

 

[Yingyang]

Your title is only justified for a tiny portion. Only 2 theatres really active sort of with capabilities of mass destruction. Russia- nato who officially still aren't declared as being in a conflict formally. And Israel. Also looking at it from the other angle is the fact that it is only a tiny portion of the world who is actually aware or gives a shit. In reality you could imagine global population awareness of such issues and the dangers associated probably at best approximately 5% if that.

 

[DarkNoon]

Your title is only justified for a tiny portion. Only 2 theatres really active sort of with capabilities of mass destruction. Russia- nato who officially still aren't declared as being in a conflict formally. And Israel. Also looking at it from the other angle is the fact that it is only a tiny portion of the world who is actually aware or gives a shit. In reality you could imagine global population awareness of such issues and the dangers associated probably a best approximately 5% if that.

Not sure why people fail to realize regional conflicts can spill over or drag nuclear powers into cross fires.

But its the amount of fires occuring at once that is the danger. Not anyone specific fire. Thought I made that pretty clear.

 

[Yingyang]

My opinion is the west is at fever point for many reasons and are more likely to use nuclear weapons before our so called enemies.

 

[DarkNoon]

Thanks for your insight from St. Petersburg as always.

 

[Yingyang]

Thanks for your insight from St. Petersburg as always.

Appreciated anytime

 

[teekay99]

It does feel like geopolitical events in the world today are increasing in number and intensity. But also keep in mind that we have access to information almost instantaneously unlike any previous time in history. I am not sure what impact that is having on our perception of world events, but it could be a contributing factor. News organizations are competing with information and disinformation on the social media platforms, so that may be influencing the degree of "sensationalism" baked into standard news reports in an effort to get customers.

A couple fires you can manage, a dozen, not so much.

This is one of the reasons I ask "why are we messing with Venezuela." Isn't there enough going on in the world for the US to monitor and perhaps prepare for engagement?

In fact, it's quite likely that if one of the medium fires explodes, others will follow suit. If China invades Taiwan, does that present an opportunity for Kim to launch an attack on South Korea? Would that trigger Russia to move on Moldova, or the Baltics? A move on the Baltics would draw in NATO and Europe.
I do not think Pakistan would move on India as I do not believe Pakistan would survive India's response. And I would not expect China to move on India while it is busy trying to subdue Taiwan.

 

[Yingyang]

Not sure why people fail to realize regional conflicts can spill over or drag nuclear powers into cross fires.

But its the amount of fires occuring at once that is the danger. Not anyone specific fire. Thought I made that pretty clear.

Strange when you sit back study what you say there is definitely nothing new to witness. And the firebug i guess would be easy to find. Common denominator i guess.

 

[DarkNoon]

It does feel like geopolitical events in the world today are increasing in number and intensity. But also keep in mind that we have access to information almost instantaneously unlike any previous time in history. I am not sure what impact that is having on our perception of world events, but it could be a contributing factor. News organizations are competing with information and disinformation on the social media platforms, so that may be influencing the degree of "sensationalism" baked into standard news reports in an effort to get customers.

Maybe. But then, that only begs the question, what did we miss, and how many times did we 'get close' that we are not aware about. Doesn't exactly quell any of my current concerns.

This is one of the reasons I ask "why are we messing with Venezuela." Isn't there enough going on in the world for the US to monitor and perhaps prepare for engagement?

Right. We don't need to get tied up in anything else right now...

In fact, it's quite likely that is one of the medium fires explodes, others will follow suit. If China invades Taiwan, does that present an opportunity for Kim to launch an attack on South Korea? Would that trigger Russia to move on Moldova, or the Baltics? A move on the Baltics would draw in NATO and Europe.

I do not think Pakistan would move on India as I do not believe Pakistan would survive India's response. And I would not expect China to move on India while it is busy trying to subdue Taiwan.

This is my main concern and keep going back to how many fires there are. One fire by itself is fine. But all of them burning at once. Easy for them to spill over, spread, grow, or intertwine.

 

[DarkNoon]

I’m not saying WWIII is around the corner.

I don’t see an immediate trigger.

I’m saying I’m uncomfortable with the background temperature that keeps rising with too many fires burning at once.

That doesn’t mean the world ends tomorrow or even this year or ever. I’m just speaking out loud... it looks like a perfect storm brewing if we don’t tread very carefully in the months & years ahead.

 

[Yingyang]

Actually history proves we are less likely to know even with technological advances. Percentage rate of known close calls is much much less than those we didn't.

 

[Yingyang]

I’m not saying WWIII is around the corner.

I don’t see an immediate trigger.

I’m saying I’m uncomfortable with the background temperature that keeps rising with too many fires burning at once.

That doesn’t mean the world ends tomorrow or even this year or ever. I’m just speaking out loud... it looks like a perfect storm brewing if we don’t tread very carefully in the months & years ahead.

2027-2030 i think is the real danger of nuclear war.

 

[Sentry]

I do not think Pakistan would move on India as I do not believe Pakistan would survive India's response. And I would not expect China to move on India while it is busy trying to subdue Taiwan.

I do not see things escalating in the India-China-Pakistan sphere as of now.

In fact, I believe China would suffer massive damage to their military, setting them back decades in case of an invasion of Taiwan. They would not be in a position to handle a two-front war with India on one end & the U.S./Taiwan at the other.

 

[Sentry]

As of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, I believe we're getting closer to it. Wild guess, but I expect it to happen during Trump's presidency.