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DEFCON 3 | Europe Crisis | Feburary 2022

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Garniv said:
Yeah. These people don't know what nonsense they're talking about at all...
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To clarify, I'm pretty sure Rubio is referencing the Soviet suitcases. Basically an idea that spawned during the Cold War that Russia was making small nukes that could be easily transported and assembled, but there was a few problems concerning the feasibility of even creating one. Not sure if they exist
 
Biden’s state of the union is going to be interesting. If we survive until then. Have to wonder if they are going to have any members of congress in attendance for continuity.
 
Here is a big update/intel dump from Polish sources. This is not my intel, but someone else’s. It has not been vetted or verified but seems quite credible.

- It has been confirmed that Russian military for the first phase of the invasion has deployed mostly young and inexperienced soldiers and old equipment. A lot of them had no clue that they were participating in an invasion. Captured soldiers claimed they were told it was only a military exercise. When asked if they are aware of the exact location they were in, they allegedly didn’t know it.

This short video clip seems to confirm it:
[link to twitter.com (secure)]

- The second phase of the invasion has started and the ‘real’ army is/will be be deployed soon. It has been estimated that at this point about 70% percent of Russian forces are participating in the war now. 70% of the troops stationed in the region. It means nothing good for the Ukrainians.

- Russian have deployed Anti-Terror-Units around Kiev. Those units are not part of the regular army but they are specialized in urban fight situations (and probably other tasks which makes them useful for example hunting down politicians)

- Russian troops are trying to encircle Kiev and cut the capital from support and supply. If they succeed, Kiev will be in a very dire situation. Full scale attack on Kiev is expected in about a week.

- Russian troops fight only Ukrainian military. Any collateral damage of civilian life and infrastructure is unintended.

- It is expected that the Republics of Lugansk and Donenck will fall completely into Russians hands soon.

- Main fighting is taking place in South-Ukraine. The City of Melitopol has has fallen. Mariupol is encircled. The same scenario is expected for the Cities of Mikolajev and Odessa. If this happens Ukraine would be effectively cut off from the access to the Black Sea.

- As mentioned in the previous update, fulls scale war operation is conducted only in the South-Ukraine. In other regions Russians conduct a lot of sting landing operations from air: they fly their troops with choppers in.

- This is interesting: Allegedly diplomatic efforts from NATO has stopped Russians from engaging an offensive along Polish border. Rumors are that NATO has threatened Russians that if they dare to open the west-front, and by doing so cutting off the escape route for civilians, it would give NATO a mandate to act. Fact is that Russian troops which are stationed near the Bela-Russian City of Brest, haven’t made a move yet. It was expected that they would enter the territory of West-Ukraine today. We will see what happens. In addition to this, NATO is allegedly thinking about establishing a No-Flay-Zone in this region.

- There were friendly fire accidents among Ukrainian troops. The problem is that both sides often use the same equipment from Soviet era, so mix-ups are possible.

- The City of Kharkov is still in Ukrainian hands. But the region around it is controlled by Russian troops.

- Bela-Russ is playing important role in this conflict. It functions as an operational base for Russian military in the north. Trains are being sent from Russia to Bela-Russ with necessary supplies for Russian troops. In addition to this, Moscow has deployed SU-34 bombers to the airport of Maranowic (not sure about the spelling of the name). You can bet that they’ll be deployed very soon.

Summary:
It is expected that the second phase of Russian attack on Ukraine will be up to 50% more effective, due to better equipment and more experienced soldiers. In addition to this Russian have surprised Ukrainian military (and everybody else) with the scale of their operations. Nobody expected that Putin will want to seize all of Ukraine. Therefor especially the west flank is not well prepared for Russian operations.
But Russians have unexpected troubles with logistics. Their troops often run out of fuel and food. Russian war plan and tactics are from highest standard. But their execution is surprisingly often deficient. In addition to this, experts wonder why Putin decided to invade Ukraine so late in the Winter. Temperatures will rise soon and heavy equipment will get stuck in the mud. The window of opportunity of ‘good‘ weather is closing soon.

Politics:

- Germany are sending 1000 panzerfaust and 500 stringer rockets to Ukraine.

- Not only the European airspace has been closed for Russian aircrafts but also European waters for Russian ships. Russian ships can be seized. All Russian goods and products which are stored in warehouses on European territory can be also seized. This applies also to gas and oil. Despite this development, Gasprom is still pumping gas to Europe. According to official statement, Gasprom wants to stay a reliable business partner also in times of crisis.
 
What is going to signal that we approach DEFCON 2 that we HOPEFULLY don't get into, and what are ways to prevent that from happening? I'm very concerned.
 
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