Latest Polish intel drop. Again, not mine, but credible.
- Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria has provided Ukraine with unknown amount of Mig29 fighter jets. The jets has been repainted and ID- transponder deactivated. The are allegedly in use over Ukraine.
- French Foreign Legion has allowed their Ukrainan-born Soldiers to join the fight in the Ukraine. Transportation and equipment is provided.
- West-Ukraine: So far Russian troops still standing idle in their base near Bela Russian city of Brest. There was no invasion along Polish border. Maybe the Intel about NATO threatening Putin is true. But it is to assume that small recon units have entered Ukraine and gathering Intel for later invasion.
- Kiev: Situation is difficult and in flux. But Russian troops who entered Ukraine from the north-west (from the territory of Bela-Russ) are numerically to small to engage a full attack on Kiev. Ukrainian troops were able prevent Russian military from encircle Kiev.
- Russian Troops are creating humanitarian corridors for citizen who want to flee the war zone, but only to the south, not to the west.
- Bela Russian president Lukashenka has allegedly expressed his willingness to join Russian invasion in the effort to encircle Kiev.
- The city of Tshernihiw (north-east from Kiev) and the city of Browary (east from Kiev) are the main obstacles for Russian troops engaging from the east. Same apples to the city of Sumy.
- The Cirty of Charkov has been left alone by Russian troops on their way to Kiev. This applies to other smaller cites too. Their main goal is to encircle and to seize Kiev.
- South-Ukraine: Mariupol still not seized. The dam in Nowa Kachowka is back in Ukrainian hands, respectively Ukrainian troops regained control over the western side of the Dniepr river at the dam.
- But the dam is not strategically important for Russian movement anymore. They can cross the river near the city of Cherson. Birdges in Cherson has been destroyed by Ukrainians but Russians have build floating bridges in this area. The city itself has been regained by Ukrainian troops, but since the surrounding region is controlled by Russians it has no impact on Russian troop movement. Floating bridges near Cherson allow Russian troops to bring their troops northwards toward Kiev.
- The expected Russian attack on Odessa from the Moldavian territory of Transnistria did not take place so far. But Russian navy forces which has gathered in the region are very powerful and it is expected that they carry the troops and equipment need for the attack.
- In general Russian combat in the south front is well conducted end pretty effective. What can’t be said about the north-west and east front. It’s a dissonance worth noticing.
- Once again confirmation that the story about Ukrainians equipping their long range missiles with dirty nuclear material was made up by Russian intelligence and passed on to Germans to keep them away from the conflict.
- Two things have allegedly pissed off Putin and escalated the conflict. 1) Ukrainian government
demanded from Russia to cover the costs for maintenance and servicing the former nuclear plant of Chernobyl. 2) A suggestion made by President Zelensky that Ukraine is technologically capable of producing nuclear weapons and would be in different position in the scuffle with Russia if she had nuclear weapons in her inventory.
- The unexpected invasion of Ukraine is the effect of Putin personal vendetta. He interferes with plans made by his generals, plans which never included the annexation of whole Ukraine. Now the generals have to change they long made plans to adapt Putins megalomaniac demand. This is narrative would explain why Russian suck in the north-west front and east front. They never had ready made plans for full invasion of Ukraine
This story smells like BS to me. It seems to be a part of recent efforts to portray Putin as the mad man who started the war. But who knows.
Summery: There seems to be a disparity in the quality of Russian combat between the south-front and the north-west, respectively east-front. Especially coming from east, Russian troops bypass a lot of small towns in order to get as soon as possible to Kiev. It seems that they don’t care much about securing the areas they leave behind on the march to Kiev. This opens opportunities for action for Ukrainian troops. All eyes on Kiev. Russian troops are concertinaing on encircling Kiev.
