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Do you think Putin will use a tactical nuke on Ukraine?

DarkNoon said:
My answer is a outstanding yes more then ever and the assumption just keeps growing as the days pass. Almost without a question its definitely more of a possibility then ever.
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But still highly unlikely from my view WWIII would happen. Will we be closer to WWIII then ever before if a nuke is used in Ukraine? Yes.

But NATO has zero intentions of confronting Russia directly no matter what they do IN Ukraine.

Only real threat I see is a overreaction or a split second hair triggered decision is made on either side by a accidental provocation opening pandoras box unable to be closed back up.
 
DarkNoon said:
My answer is a outstanding yes more then ever and the assumption just keeps growing as the days pass. Almost without a question its definitely more of a possibility then ever.
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But, the radiation would go to Russia and Belarus,
If he does it would be to the west of Ukraine. (Lviv?)
The winds travel from west to east
 
Saguenay said:
But, the radiation would go to Russia and Belarus,
If he does it would be to the west of Ukraine. (Lviv?)
The winds travel from west to east
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A tactical nuclear weapon airburst at sufficient altitude so that the fireball does not come in contact with the surface will result in almost no radioactive fallout to spread to other countries. The radiation damage would be limited and extremely localized.
 
RiffRaff said:
A tactical nuclear weapon airburst at sufficient altitude so that the fireball does not come in contact with the surface will result in almost no radioactive fallout to spread to other countries. The radiation damage would be limited and extremely localized.
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if so, kyiv would be the most likely target
 
It's more likely that Putin will use stragic nukes against the missile defense systems in Europe as a first strike.
It doesn't make alot of sense for Putin to bomb Ukraine into a radioactive lunar landscape with tactical nukes, he is trying to conquer Ukraine in a somewhat useful state, after all.
But chemical or biologic weapons could be used against cities in Ukraine to quel the resistance.
But what Putin cannot conquer he will destroy....:devilish:
 
Kiev is the capital city of Ukraine and it would take alot of tactical nukes or FOABs (below 1 kiltotons) to destroy it, but one Topol-M with a warhead of 800 kilotons is enough.
So tactical nukes will only make sense as a terror weapon or against incoming troops/tanks. Which are not a threat for the russian forces in Ukraine.
The tactical nukes would remain as just a symbolism to break the will of resistance if the war criminal Putin wants to use them to eradicate smaller villages, to punish ukrainians as a whole.
Only as a prelude to total nuclear annihilation... :devilish:
 
DucknCover said:
It's more likely that Putin will use stragic nukes against the missile defense systems in Europe as a first strike.
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Nah. Russia isn't going to attack a NATO country. If he uses a nuke, it will be over Ukraine. Or maybe in the sea as a demonstration, though I doubt that one.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
If he uses a nuke, it will be over Ukraine. Or maybe in the sea as a demonstration, though I doubt that one.
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Only likly scenario is a Russian false flag with chemical weapons against themselves to give them the false right to retaliate with a nuclear device. This (imo) the only way Putin goes for using a nuclear device over Ukraine.
 
DarkNoon said:
Only likly scenario is a Russian false flag with chemical weapons against themselves to give them the false right to retaliate with a nuclear device. This (imo) the only way Putin goes for using a nuclear device over Ukraine.
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I think there can be another reason. Ukraine goes for Crimea. Or Russia thinks they are. Like a massing of troops by the border.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I think there can be another reason. Ukraine goes for Crimea. Or Russia thinks they are. Like a massing of troops by the border.
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Yes but you really think Ukraine forces can muster up enough fire power to take a peice of land Russia has been fortifying for many years? Pretty sure they know it's highly improbable.
 
DarkNoon said:
Yes Russia will resort to using WMD's claiming it was Ukraine. Worst case they use this false act to use a nuclear device over Ukraine.
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Then we will have a problem because it’s only going to get worse in Ukraine for Russia.
As the bombings continue the calls to do more will rise. New weapons will come from nato or direct action and it will get worse for Russia
 
There is a possibility that tactical nuclear weapon will be used against Azerbaijan instead:
In the Soviet Army, like any active military machine, there were various groups of military theorists. One of these groups was born after the Soviet-Chinese conflict over Damansky Island - perhaps this will seem strange to someone, but not all Soviet officers considered that conflict to be victorious.

The invasion of the PLA into Soviet territory was an extremely wake-up call - China was not afraid of either the military power of the USSR or the nuclear arsenal. The defeat of the Chinese was a pure formality, they believed - after all, in the end, a precedent was created that made it possible to encroach on the territory of the USSR.

The way out, in the eyes of the officers, was simple - in any local conflict, even indirectly related to the threat to the Soviets, the demonstrative use of tactical nuclear weapons is necessary.

The calculation was simple and pragmatic - such an undisguised display of power was supposed to cool any hotheads who wanted to start a war directly on Soviet territory or threaten the strategic interests of the Soviets. Subsequently, the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons soared even in Afghanistan - albeit unofficially, but the idea of bombing the sparsely populated mountainous territories controlled by the Mujahideen near the border with Pakistan existed.

And at this point, I propose to return to the events of today.

The idea of a "local nuclear strike" smoothly migrated from the USSR to the Russian Federation. This, in essence, is natural - Russia has a huge vulnerable territory, but too few military resources to protect it. Frankly, the Russian armed forces are not enough even for the simultaneous waging of two large-scale local wars - and now such a moment of vulnerability has come.

Most of the most combat-ready personnel units of the RF Armed Forces are located in Ukraine - the lack of infantry units is forcing the command to transfer forces even from explosive regions like Karabakh and Tajikistan.

A very seductive moment that you want to take advantage of, isn't it?

Judging by the latest information about the offensive of Azerbaijani troops in Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku also considered that this is a time of new opportunities. Russian troops, with all their desire, will not be able to simultaneously conduct two conflicts in different regions - even if the mobilization of reservists and mass conscription begin.

And here comes another seductive moment - a moment that you want to use to put a couple of warheads into practice, don't you?

Objectively speaking, such a move would be beneficial for Moscow not only from the point of view of a show of force, but also from the point of view of the economy. Azerbaijan is one of the leading energy suppliers to Europe. Its physical removal will put the EU in front of an extremely difficult choice - either make a deal with Moscow, or fall into the abyss ... also with Moscow.

However, the factor of demonstrating strength on a low-grade and of little interest to the world regional player is also extremely important. Having nuclear weapons and declaring readiness to use them is one thing. To launch... well, this radically changes the alignment, especially against the backdrop of Poland's active interest in Kaliningrad, and Japan in the Kuril Islands. The number of territorial claims against the Russian Federation will only grow exponentially, and Moscow has no conventional opportunity to respond to all these threats. This is an important point, which is both a weakness and a strength - after all, in fact, such strategic alignments remove any restrictions on the use of the Russian nuclear arsenal.

So, perhaps, waking up one day, you may be surprised to find out that Azerbaijan has become the first victim of atomic weapons in the 21st century.

Now is really an era of great changes, damn it.
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