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UA-RU | April 10th-30th | DISCUSSIONS

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tlcagford said:
Breaking NEWS UK to be considered party to war when their equipment arrives!!!!!
WW3 SOON!!!

Moscow has sent notice that they are now considered a party to the war by delivering weapons to Ukraine! LOL
The Russian Ministry of Defense has accused London of a “direct provocation” after British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey encouraged Ukrainian forces to use UK-supplied weapons to attack targets inside Russia. Any attempts to do so would invoke an immediate response, the ministry warned in a statement on Tuesday.
“We want to emphasize that London’s direct provocation of the Kiev regime to such actions, should they attempt to do so, will immediately lead to our proportional response. As we have warned, the Russian armed forces are on standby around the clock to retaliate with long-range high-precision weapons against decision-making centers in Kiev,” the military warned.
The ministry went on to say that “advisers from one of the Western nations” located in these centers “won’t necessarily be a problem” in Russia’s decision-making regarding retaliatory measures.
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Please post your sources for this information or it have to be deleted. Thank you in advance.
 
Since this is the discussion area, yea, I'm going to put in my "two cents or sense worth" in this discussion. I've mostly stayed pretty quiet after the getting prepared series finished up, etc. Sure, I've put in a funny here and there just for a few laughs, and put in a few comments here and there, but nothing of any large numbers.

I just quietly read in the background and don't say too much. This on going conflict is certainly somewhat unusual in some ways, but not in others, if you know your history. I'm not a historian by any stretch, don't claim to be, but I do have a good memory.

The things we are currently seeing, such as the depot fires, the agricultural fires over there, and of course many other areas too many to mention, but there's still a common thread. Let's go back to WW2 and a tad before. You had a Democrat president, supplying all sorts of supplies and war materials to be shipped over to England, etc. Currently, you have the same thing going on with Ukraine. Back then, you had either embargoes or sanctions going on, particularly against Japan, because Japan was having some sort of a skirmish against China, and the USA supported china, and cut off oil supplies to Japan. Well, that didn't go off very well for the folks in Pearl Harbor did it? Today, you have all sorts of sanctions against Russia, which cuts off the fertilizer for the USA, which in turn will cause food shortages, and now with Gasprom cutting off oil to Poland, I sure do see a pattern here, and it's not pretty.

Now, almost everywhere you see nothing but talk of nuclear. It's basically a soft disclosure, getting people more or less numbed to hearing it mentioned. Most of the generation that actually saw what even small nuclear weapons could do have either died or lost memories due to advancing age.

It's like Oppenheimer making the quote "Now, I've become death" or Einstein stating "I know how world war 3 will be fought, but world war 4 will be fought with sticks and stones".

Folks, we're on a collision course. Some people say it's just nuclear blackmail, been done before, pay it no attention, and all will be fine and dandy. Well, this time, there are differences. You have a leader who might be sick, and he's not backing down. You already have had attacks deep into Russian territory, a battleship sunk, and I'm not really trying to get into details of going even further.

Unless I'm wrong, I don't think there's a single person in the membership of this forum that has any position of authority. I could be wrong, but my point is simple. Unless there is a person of authority in this group, there's nothing that we can do to stop the snowball that is building.

And what makes it even more dangerous, not getting political at all here, but you have two leaders on opposite sides that probably despise each other, but the problem is, both of them have the "football"

I'm almost positive that within a few weeks (even if it goes that far) that you'll see a tactical lobbed off somewhere. If it happens, you'll see naturally a certain amount of panic, unrest, unbelief, denial, you name it--it will be there. Of course, naturally--I WANT to be wrong. But, when you look at the big picture, it's not the days of wine and roses anymore.

Think it will stop with just a little tit for tat here and there?? If it did--we'd be very blessed. But, when the chips are down, and the lights are blinking, yea, it will escalate quickly.
 
Obreid said:
So again we’re back to nuclear blackmail.
Let’s say I need half your backyard.
You say no
Well it was mine thirty years ago.
And you reply you know when that was settled 30 years ago it was agreed it was mine.
That doesn’t matter all those trees and garden I planted 50 years ago so admit it their mine it’s obvious
And you reply uh no!
I begin moving the fences and replanting the garden in your back yard.
You come out your back door and holler what the hell are you doing and you rip the fence out and replant your plants.
I move in with a bulldozer and knock everything down and have my family start shooting at you every time you come near the back yard.
You shoot back
I start bulldozing right up to your back door. And start telling all the neighbors your a bad dude and if you don’t settle down I’m going to drive you out of the neighbor hood.
In the meantime I start sending you bills for rent on on my house you live in.
It was mine years ago my daddy built that house.
All the while when you push back I start shooting the windows out of your home.
And tell the whole neighborhood if you don’t straighten up I’m going to burn your house down and any of the other neighbors who happen to support you.

Is that how your saying this should be handled.

My solution if this is what’s accepted is that sanctions are never lifted and that a militarized wall be built across the entire Russian and Belarusian boarder. And that all trade and boarder crossings are closed I defiantly. And of course now that nuclear weapons are offensive foreign policy tools. IRBM with nuclear warheads need to be deployed all across Europe.
How should we handle negotiations over Transisterisa? Should that territory be thrown in with southern and eastern Ukraine. It’s Russian, they said so.

You know sometimes negotiations don’t work especially when the person your negotiating with insist at keeping a gun to your head.
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I think the current situation contains a lot more context.

Putin has warned for nearly two decades that NATO expansion East would cause this situation; so it isn't as if we should be surprised by what's happened. But there have been a few occasions in the past two decades that could have averted this situation if certain ideological sects within the US establishment hadn't viewed Putin with such disdain (Putin's Russia is the antithesis of the Globalist ethos that currently holds sway in the West).

Putin is motivated by securing Russian 'civilisation'. He see's Russia as a distinct entity. He doesn't want western ideological values (an argument in itself) undermining what he see's as inviolate Russian Cultural, Religious and Historical values that are intrinsic to his sense of Russianness. This is why I don't believe he will pull back; and that he will go to all lengths to secure what he believes will be his legacy.

I don't believe Putin is a mad man. He is an authoritarian - no doubt of that - but the West has no problem dealing with similar ilk. Putin, IMHO, will negotiate with the West if it allows him to at least guarantee certain security aims; like Ukraine becoming a neutral state, and not being able to build or purchase nuclear weapons. The sticky part of the negotiations, which may require both sides to make exceptions, is the break away republics and the Crimea.

In the final analysis, Ukraine is not part of NATO. NATO is a defensive organisation. If a NATO country is attacked by the Russians (the possibility grows by the day) then NATO will get involved. Whether or not the policy of bleeding Russia into an anaemic husk will work without some major blowback occurring will more than likely be measured in a matter of months, as opposed to years. I for one hope the blowback is nothing more than price hikes and cold showers.
 
Russia will be aiming at NATO weapons supplies in NATO countries, that's what they say.
And so a (nuclear) war with Russia is around the corner.

www.abc.net.au

Russia warns of WWIII if the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons

Follow the latest headlines from ABC News, Australia's most trusted media source, with live events, audio and on-demand video from the national broadcaster.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
https://twitter.com/x/status/1519095320113606656

Moderator Edit: This is opinion, not fact. Please be sure to preface such statements with "I think," "I believe," or "It is my opinion that" to avoid confusion in the future.
 
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Tuor80 said:
Putin is motivated by securing Russian 'civilisation'. He see's Russia as a distinct entity. He doesn't want western ideological values (an argument in itself) undermining what he see's as inviolate Russian Cultural, Religious and Historical values that
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And this has nothing to do with invading Ukraine except of course if his k tensions are imperialist
When Russia says a neutral Ukraine they mean like Belarus. Not the same as a neutral state. It’s a puppet state he wanted.
So we allow him to have a puppet state just because Russia says so.
Germany and Russia played that game with Poland in the 30s.

What He’s really been saying for twenty years Ukraine is ours to dominate and I’m warning you.
This has nothing to do with the security of Russia integrity or civilization.
So he’s been warning for twenty years.
What could have been negotiated Is only real event in the sense that Ukraine should have been brought into the NATO the day after the maiden revolution.
And western armies failed in not maintaining their armies and nuclear delivery systems in Europe.

Just take for example that NATO’s growth is voluntary Eastern European nations asked to be in nato for a reason.
It wasn’t because the card games and cigars were good. No it was because they did not and do not trust Russia and now you know

Russia wants their security guarantees.
I’ve said it before where was Ukraine’s guarantee?
I don’t honestly care about Russia claims of security because they were never about security they were always about expansion. A d the Eastern European nations knew this from the beginning. That is what the majority of them applied to join NATO. And why Sweden and Finland are going to now after 60 years. It’s because of Russia. Pride and Russians desire for control of Eastern Europe.
Those are inadequate and unacceptable claims no matter how long Russia whined about it.
Now they want to take them by military force and nuclear threats.

There is nothing to negotiate, you can capitulate to salvage Russia pride go ahead but don’t call it negotiations call it capitulation.
Are we going to have to renegotiate and kick the Baltic’s out of nato because Russia’s afraid?
Or even sadder still Russian culture is so frail and defective having independent western cultures on their boarder is some how dangerous.
Maybe their culture is just deficient
 
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Regarding Poland's gas getting shut off, this is a reply on Reddit from a person in Poland:

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/ucfnel/_/i6alx5v
Polish citizen here. Poland planned to not extend Gazprom contract anyway (finishing at the end of this year) and completely cut off natural gas supplies from this direction. Everybody basically was working on preparing Poland for this like for last 10 years. There is nothing too much unexpected, things happened just little bit earlier. Currently in magazines we have one year wort of reserves and of course secured NG contracts for coming years. Q4 this Year planned opening of Baltic pipe (Norway - Europe). Nobody cares too much here. I'm, personally, very happy that we will effectively stop pay blood money.
Click to expand...

With that said, this is just one person's take in Poland.
 
DucknCover said:
Russia will be aiming at NATO weapons supplies in NATO countries, that's what they say.
And so a (nuclear) war with Russia is around the corner.

www.abc.net.au

Russia warns of WWIII if the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons

Follow the latest headlines from ABC News, Australia's most trusted media source, with live events, audio and on-demand video from the national broadcaster.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
https://twitter.com/x/status/1519095320113606656
Click to expand...
Russia did not say in Poland. abc did not say Poland.
the lone anonymous Twitter post you cited says in Poland.
 
Tuor80 said:
Putin is motivated by securing Russian 'civilisation'. He see's Russia as a distinct entity.
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I’m perfectly fine with that, I would expect nothing less.
So invading a neighboring nations and demanding their feility is a Russian value good to know.

I’m really sorry but using another smaller nation as some kind of civilization or security buffer is just so much BS.
That’s not strength, that weakness
 
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TCharley300 said:
Folks, we're on a collision course. Some people say it's just nuclear blackmail, been done before, pay it no attention, and all will be fine and dandy. Well, this time, there are differences. You have a leader who might be sick, and he's not backing down.
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It’s not that he’s not backing down, he’s pushing forward with nuclear blackmail.
 
Saguenay said:
Poland Over 90% dependent on Russian gas.
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50% of Poland’s gas imports are Russian. Gasprom contracts expire at end of this year Poland is not going to renew them. They have been shifting suppliers several years now. Their strategic reserves are full. They expect no cuts to consumers.
www.marketwatch.com

Poland says Russia warned that natgas supply will stop on Wednesday

Russia will halt natural gas flows to Poland on Wednesday in an escalation in the standoff between Moscow and Europe over energy supplies and the war in Ukraine, according to news reports Tuesday.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
DucknCover said:
Russia will be aiming at NATO weapons supplies in NATO countries, that's what they say.
And so a (nuclear) war with Russia is around the corner.

www.abc.net.au

Russia warns of WWIII if the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons

Follow the latest headlines from ABC News, Australia's most trusted media source, with live events, audio and on-demand video from the national broadcaster.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
https://twitter.com/x/status/1519095320113606656
Click to expand...
Actually they haven’t said they will be attacking weapon supplies in NATO countries. If anything, they’ve been quite careful not to say that, so far.

That could change, but as of now, it’s false information and should be deleted from the forum.
 
Saguenay said:
If I were Ukraine, I would be terribly frustrated to learn that Sweden and Finland joined NATO before them.
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This is a very interesting situation. Putin needs to lob a few missiles at these two soon, if he has any hope of stopping more nato countries on his doorstep. Otherwise things could go nuclear very quickly once it is announced as officially new members. 🤔🧐
 
Yingyang said:
This is a very interesting situation. Putin needs to lob a few missiles at these two soon, if he has any hope of stopping more nato countries on his doorstep. Otherwise things could go nuclear very quickly once it is announced as officially new members. 🤔🧐
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Is that a educated guess which is fine.
Or do you know something.
I’ve heard this from another and I’d like to know the basis of prediction.
Yeah it will piss Russia off but I don’t see them going nuclear over it.
But the introduction of offensive nuclear policy is a relative new geopolitical threat. It’s been talked about but never serious proposed.
I agree it’s real I just don’t see this as a trigger.
 
Obreid said:
Is that a educated guess which is fine.
Or do you know something.
I’ve heard this from another and I’d like to know the basis of prediction.
Yeah it will piss Russia off but I don’t see them going nuclear over it.
But the introduction of offensive nuclear policy is a relative new geopolitical threat. It’s been talked about but never serious proposed.
I agree it’s real I just don’t see this as a trigger.
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I see it as a trigger simply as a educated guess,considering his continuous warnings of this situation. It may be bluster it may not. But it is obviously catchy like covid? Sarcasm. But Kim has taken a page out of Putins book now with nuclear threats aswell so expect a nuclear pandemic. 🤣😂🤣. On a serious note this is exactly what Putin has feared for 20yrs. Now what 3 weeks approximately before Sweden and Finland are announced as nato countries on his border. He may well let fly. 🤞 we find out soon.
 
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