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UA-RU | May 1st-20th | DISCUSSIONS

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dave II judgement day said:
I wonder, the way the US has been acting lately, have we got intelligence russia is going to attack nato or something? admitting that we helped sink the moskova, maybe this is a way of saying "you think this is bad, just imagine how its gonna be if we are directly involved" in an effort to change their decisionmaking
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This is just conjecture… I would bet at least a movie ticket to Dr Strange on the fact the DEFCON staff shows no current evidence to support this line of thought… BUT… i would bet it’s the other way around…I wouldn’t be surprised if NATO is quietly planning a counter-attack on targets within Russia, likely for later this summer. Russia has squeezed the hell out of Europe by turning off the gas…in the semi-near term that sounds like a pretty big existential threat to that part of NATO if you ask me…

Edit - An article supporting how vulnerable Europe really is without Russian fuel - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ecome-so-dependent-on-putin-for-gas-quicktake
 
Spyglass said:
This is just conjecture… I would bet at least a movie ticket to Dr Strange on the fact the DEFCON staff shows no current evidence to support this line of thought… BUT… i would bet it’s the other way around…I wouldn’t be surprised if NATO is quietly planning a counter-attack on targets within Russia, likely for later this summer. Russia has squeezed the hell out of Europe by turning off the gas…in the semi-near term that sounds like a pretty big existential threat to that part of NATO if you ask me…

Edit - An article supporting how vulnerable Europe really is without Russian fuel - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ecome-so-dependent-on-putin-for-gas-quicktake
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you know russia has only cut poland and bulgaria off right? also I dont see the logic in thinking that the reaction to gas being cut off would be military and not just yknow getting it somewhere else
 
I made my guess on the US maybe having some intelligence regarding a change in Russian positioning from a couple of things, still a guess but here they are -
  • Major cautions in framing and disclosure of involvement being mostly abandoned
  • less restraint in types of disclosed aid being given, more heavy weapons etc,
  • NATO readiness exercises timed to take place around may 9th speech
  • when asked about what putin plans to announce on may 9th, he says "you will hear more from us as may 9th approaches, and I am sure more from the russian side as well"
  • psaski says there will be some kind of announcement on the eve of the 9th regarding ukraine situation and western support
  • my local (non military and very much for small domestic) airport has had a pretty solid stream of newly olive green V-22s flowing through south (pretty unusual)
  • mate in california tells me of russia style trains of tanks and military equipment
  • national guard yard in fort thomas is all olive green now
  • And I am sure you all have seen the constant new framing of this situation as a NATO-Russia conflict on russian television
Now I do not think that all this means for sure what I am proposing here of the US having some shocking info of a major escalation, every single one of these things can be explained with different reasoning. but it is something I would keep in mind. I also think we have taken steps to deter certain escalations earlier in this, such as chemical weapons use, and this is a similar effort
 
dave II judgement day said:
you know russia has only cut poland and bulgaria off right? also I dont see the logic in thinking that the reaction to gas being cut off would be military and not just yknow getting it somewhere else
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It won’t just be Poland and Bulgaria, is more so what I was getting at, I should have been clearer. As it stands now geopolitically, the West’s goals are to humiliate and push Russia off the global stage. There aren’t many other directions to go to push this further other than to expose Russian vulnerability in the motherland. My logic is that in the next few months, the West will hit hard targets within Russia to further humiliate them, and demoralize the Russian people. Russia will then tie it to NATO, and all supplies from Russia that can fuel the NATO war machine will be cut in response.
 
Spyglass said:
It won’t just be Poland and Bulgaria, is more so what I was getting at, I should have been clearer. As it stands now geopolitically, the West’s goals are to humiliate and push Russia off the global stage. There aren’t many other directions to go to push this further other than to expose Russian vulnerability in the motherland. My logic is that in the next few months, the West will hit hard targets within Russia to further humiliate them, and demoralize the Russian people. Russia will then tie it to NATO, and all supplies from Russia that can fuel the NATO war machine will be cut in response.
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Our goal in the 1940s through the late 1980s was to push russia off the global stage, and we well realized that the best way to do that was to deter it, and to not support it, and eventually it will fall due to instability innate to their system, and it paid off. I see no reason to think that the new strategy will be to go ahead and bomb them without being directly provoked
 
dave II judgement day said:
I made my guess on the US maybe having some intelligence regarding a change in Russian positioning from a couple of things, still a guess but here they are -
  • Major cautions in framing and disclosure of involvement being mostly abandoned
  • less restraint in types of disclosed aid being given, more heavy weapons etc,
  • NATO readiness exercises timed to take place around may 9th speech
  • when asked about what putin plans to announce on may 9th, he says "you will hear more from us as may 9th approaches, and I am sure more from the russian side as well"
  • psaski says there will be some kind of announcement on the eve of the 9th regarding ukraine situation and western support
  • my local (non military and very much for small domestic) airport has had a pretty solid stream of newly olive green V-22s flowing through south (pretty unusual)
  • mate in california tells me of russia style trains of tanks and military equipment
  • national guard yard in fort thomas is all olive green now
  • And I am sure you all have seen the constant new framing of this situation as a NATO-Russia conflict on russian television
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These points namely 1-5 are just some of the reasons why I feel a NATO counter-attack is quietly brewing… the West and the United States have kept their heels dug in, and are becoming more involved, whether it be funding or weapons support.
 
dave II judgement day said:
Our goal in the 1940s through the late 1980s was to push russia off the global stage, and we well realized that the best way to do that was to deter it, and to not support it, and eventually it will fall due to instability innate to their system, and it paid off. I see no reason to think that the new strategy will be to go ahead and bomb them without being directly provoked
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Most people seem to think Russia is not acting rationally, and Putin is insane, at-least according to the mainstream narrative… wouldn’t this alone warrant a change in strategy?
 
Spyglass said:
Most people seem to think Russia is not acting rationally, and Putin is insane, at-least according to the mainstream narrative… wouldn’t this alone warrant a change in strategy?
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maybe, but I dont see how it would result in a change in strategy to one that would lead even a rational russian leader into using nuclear weapons
 
dave II judgement day said:
maybe, but I dont see how it would result in a change in strategy to one that would lead even a rational russian leader into using nuclear weapons
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My stance has always been that Russia won’t use nukes. I never mentioned nukes. I am also not talking about nukes. I sure hope I am right, but a limited conventional counter-attack by NATO against Russia solely for the goal of further embarrassment doesn’t warrant a nuclear response as much as we might think so. The likely scenario is we would hit supply lines, not military bases or other targets that would directly cause casualties.
 
I think it is pretty unlikely that we hit things on russian territory, and it is unlikely the idea that if we did that russia would not go nuclear, I mean a russia nato war come on what else is gonna come out of that
 
dave II judgement day said:
I think it is pretty unlikely that we hit things on russian territory, and it is unlikely the idea that if we did that russia would not go nuclear, I mean a russia nato war come on what else is gonna come out of that
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Things are already covertly being hit in Russian territory. Notice all the fires and explosions lately? It’s just not on the news because it’s probably classified ops. The next step is making the moves public, when something bigger gets hit. At this point, Russia has no interest in blaming anybody because it exposes they are vulnerable to the entire world. Things don’t have to go nuclear unless Russia has no choice.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1522371212529262592
My original hypothesis appears to be very probable with the US aiding Ukraine on the location of the ship. If true, we must have had intel that Putin was about to escalate dramatically or we wouldn’t have made such a bold step. Ever since the ship sinking we have been seeing bolder and bolder steps from NATO. Very concerning. When both sides don’t back down, you have war. I think if Putin orders a full mobilization of Russian men, the gloves will be completely off. NATO isn‘t going to stand by and watch and allow Russia to prep their population for a potential global war.
 
TruthandJustice said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1522371212529262592
My original hypothesis appears to be very probable with the US aiding Ukraine on the location of the ship. If true, we must have had intel that Putin was about to escalate dramatically or we wouldn’t have made such a bold step. Ever since the ship sinking we have been seeing bolder and bolder steps from NATO. Very concerning. When both sides don’t back down, you have war. I think if Putin orders a full mobilization of Russian men, the gloves will be completely off. NATO isn‘t going to stand by and watch and allow Russia to prep their population for a potential global war.
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I dont know, despite having this in the back of my mind there are alot of things that would be going on should that be the expectation that are not. alot of these things I am seeing are also part of getting 1983 levels of US men back in europe on a moments notice, something I suspect we would be doing whether we suspected a major escalation or not, and I could imagine a couple of guys giving a little too much information to a nosy reporter.
 
The U.S. helping Ukraine target Russian assets is certainly an escalation. Russia is in a difficult position, however. Exactly how does Russia respond? For the same reason NATO won't send troops into Ukraine is the same reason Russia doesn't want to start shooting NATO troops.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
The U.S. helping Ukraine target Russian assets is certainly an escalation. Russia is in a difficult position, however. Exactly how does Russia respond? For the same reason NATO won't send troops into Ukraine is the same reason Russia doesn't want to start shooting NATO troops.
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This. There's no easy way out for them. Putler really screwed up.
 
JPK said:
Does the Moskva news change anything and what will happen on May 9?
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I don’t know does it say more about Ukraine/NATO working together. Or the wisdom of Russian military continuing to patrol large naval targets in that close to Ukrainian coast. I am not being sarcastic either.
They just lost a heavy cruiser to Neptune missile. What military purpose did it serve patrolling this cruiser in so close to snake island?
Says more about Russian tactics than NATO/Ukrainian collaboration.
 
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