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UA-RU | May 1st-20th | DISCUSSIONS

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DEFCON Warning System said:
The U.S. helping Ukraine target Russian assets is certainly an escalation. Russia is in a difficult position, however. Exactly how does Russia respond? For the same reason NATO won't send troops into Ukraine is the same reason Russia doesn't want to start shooting NATO troops.
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tbh, i'm worry that the russians could see the US giving intel to Ukrainian as direct intervention ( since they got directly involved in a combat action )
 
Onoya said:
tbh, i'm worry that the russians could see the US giving intel to Ukrainian as direct intervention ( since they got directly involved in a combat action )
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Exactly my concern.... Is why I don't listen to people who spilt hairs over NATO being involved. If every/most NATO countries are suppling aid or intel, Putin isn't going to stand on formalities.
 
We will see some reaction sooner or later, some patience is the key.
Russia is losing big in Ukraine, in their anger they will use weapons of mass destruction.
 
mac7271 said:
Exactly my concern.... Is why I don't listen to people who spilt hairs over NATO being involved. If every/most NATO countries are suppling aid or intel, Putin isn't going to stand on formalities.
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Agree of course we’re involved, but it just like Vietnam. We knew they were helping the N Vietnamese. But we didn’t expand the war. Just as they knew we aided the Mujahideen.
IDK either if they will escalate.
NATO has been careful to keep manned signet flights over nato territory to reduced the temptation to harass them or try and provoke them. “Most” of the flights over Black Sea have been UAV’s

“If”an incident occurred that resulted in a nato or Russian plane being shot down does that guarantee a full on escalation? I personally don’t think so but that’s just me.
If there is a premeditated incursion into NATO or Finish airspace that’s another matter.
Personally as far as Russian command staff being killed. I think that’s just poor operational security on Russia’s part.
 
The German chancellor is set to address his nation on Sunday with regards to the war in Ukraine. The news stations were given very short notice.

What could Germany possibly have to say? Personally I don’t think this is anything good, given the notice.

What are the possibilities here?
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Here is the negotiation. "Get your troops out of our country and we'll stop killing them."

Sound reasonable?
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Absolutely agree. Sound's reasonable to me, but I am not the ones that need to be convinced.
If we ever want the Ukraine invasion by Russia to stop, there must be a realization that a negotiation won't work with Ukraine or Russia "losing;" they need to find a compromise solution to stop the violence. A DMZ-style area will likely need to be drawn.
Russia has not had a surrender since USSR's abandonment of Afghanistan in 1989. Two years later, the USSR fell. Historical fact.
Their character is not the American character. They have not gotten used to losing and defeat yet, and still see themselves as the USSR.
If Putin does surrender in Ukraine, I believe that the Russian people will overthrow Putin for certain and the next dictator will be much worse.
Societies want to choose between good and bad, of course. There are times when society must choose between bad and worse.
 
Spyglass said:
The German chancellor is set to address his nation on Sunday with regards to the war in Ukraine. The news stations were given very short notice.
What could Germany possibly have to say? Personally I don’t think this is anything good, given the notice.
What are the possibilities here?
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Barbarossa 2.0 ??
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Onoya
DarkNoon said:
🤷‍♂️
Best guess has to do with cutting Russian oil off. But again all we would be doing is guessing. Could be a number of things.
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Doesn’t the US have an announcement coming on the Eve of the 9th? Same as Russia?? Or am I wrong?

Why the synchronization?
 
Spyglass said:
Doesn’t the US have an announcement coming on the Eve of the 9th? Same as Russia?? Or am I wrong?
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I'm unsure if the US has any planned speech. But if it is same day as Germany and Russian holiday it's most likly to announce the cutting of Russian oil.
Spyglass said:
Why the synchronization?
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I think its clever to announce the West is cutting Russian oil on Russias big parade day. If that is what we plan to announce. 🤷‍♂️
 
Spyglass said:
I wouldn’t be surprised if NATO is quietly planning a counter-attack on targets within Russia, likely for later this summer.
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To be frank, I am anti-Russian. But I am also aware of history and believe it is strategic mistake to underestimate your enemy.
Europe (Germany) tried to attack Russia before. Don't think the Russian people have ever or will ever forget.
If there is such NATO war-mongering, then NATO would abandon European defense.
Because a "NATO counter-attack in Russia" would result in European cities disappearing from the face of the Earth.
Russia is not a Greater Middle East country with marginal military resources. I would not be misled by the relative restraint in Ukraine.
 
Spyglass said:
As it stands now geopolitically, the West’s goals are to humiliate and push Russia off the global stage. There aren’t many other directions to go to push this further other than to expose Russian vulnerability in the motherland. My logic is that in the next few months, the West will hit hard targets within Russia to further humiliate them, and demoralize the Russian people. Russia will then tie it to NATO, and all supplies from Russia that can fuel the NATO war machine will be cut in response.
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I have always believed that Russia was a serious enough enemy to world peace that they need to be understood for who they are, and not who I want them to be. The more that US, UK, NATO and "the West" believe they can "humiliate" Russia, the more that the Russian people (even those who are against the Ukraine war) will dig in their heels, intensify the conflict, and further risk global escalation. We really don't help the Ukranian people like that. Russia is not going to "surrender" in Ukraine. Those of us hoping and waiting for that are not helping the Ukranian people. Giving the Russia government an off-ramp for a negotiated settlement and a DMZ is the smart path for a diplomatic solution.
 
REALHumanRights said:
I have always believed that Russia was a serious enough enemy to world peace that they need to be understood for who they are, and not who I want them to be. The more that US, UK, NATO and "the West" believe they can "humiliate" Russia, the more that the Russian people (even those who are against the Ukraine war) will dig in their heels, intensify the conflict, and further risk global escalation. We really don't help the Ukranian people like that. Russia is not going to "surrender" in Ukraine. Those of us hoping and waiting for that are not helping the Ukranian people. Giving the Russia government an off-ramp for a negotiated settlement and a DMZ is the smart path for a diplomatic solution.
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This is up to Ukraine. As long as they want to keep fighting we will support them. As soon as they say they are done fighting, we will launch a false flag to motivate them to keep fighting. Just kidding, 🤞
 
Spyglass said:
The German chancellor is set to address his nation on Sunday with regards to the war in Ukraine. The news stations were given very short notice.

What could Germany possibly have to say? Personally I don’t think this is anything good, given the notice.

What are the possibilities here?
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Probably more woffle after a long speech about may 8th being the end of the world war 2 in Europe 1945 at precisely midnight
Biden will follow suit more than likely.
 
Obreid said:
Agree of course we’re involved, but it just like Vietnam. We knew they were helping the N Vietnamese. But we didn’t expand the war. Just as they knew we aided the Mujahideen.
IDK either if they will escalate.
NATO has been careful to keep manned signet flights over nato territory to reduced the temptation to harass them or try and provoke them. “Most” of the flights over Black Sea have been UAV’s

“If”an incident occurred that resulted in a nato or Russian plane being shot down does that guarantee a full on escalation? I personally don’t think so but that’s just me.
If there is a premeditated incursion into NATO or Finish airspace that’s another matter.
Personally as far as Russian command staff being killed. I think that’s just poor operational security on Russia’s part.
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I agree, but
Giving weapon, and giving intel making possible the death of an ennemy general is different,that's why i was worry, because NATO were involved in a more active way, no just giving weapon and not helping using them
 
REALHumanRights said:
Absolutely agree. Sound's reasonable to me, but I am not the ones that need to be convinced.
If we ever want the Ukraine invasion by Russia to stop, there must be a realization that a negotiation won't work with Ukraine or Russia "losing;" they need to find a compromise solution to stop the violence. A DMZ-style area will likely need to be drawn.
Russia has not had a surrender since USSR's abandonment of Afghanistan in 1989. Two years later, the USSR fell. Historical fact.
Their character is not the American character. They have not gotten used to losing and defeat yet, and still see themselves as the USSR.
If Putin does surrender in Ukraine, I believe that the Russian people will overthrow Putin for certain and the next dictator will be much worse.
Societies want to choose between good and bad, of course. There are times when society must choose between bad and worse.
Click to expand...
Why should Russia be rewarded for their invasion? That just encourages them to do it again. I know Ukraine bears the cost, but it is strategically in the best interest of other countries to stop Russia now rather than give them incentive to do it again to someone else.
 
REALHumanRights said:
I have always believed that Russia was a serious enough enemy to world peace that they need to be understood for who they are, and not who I want them to be. The more that US, UK, NATO and "the West" believe they can "humiliate" Russia, the more that the Russian people (even those who are against the Ukraine war) will dig in their heels, intensify the conflict, and further risk global escalation. We really don't help the Ukranian people like that. Russia is not going to "surrender" in Ukraine. Those of us hoping and waiting for that are not helping the Ukranian people. Giving the Russia government an off-ramp for a negotiated settlement and a DMZ is the smart path for a diplomatic solution.
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Both sides are not rdy for peace so to end this, its either going to be an Korean ending where both sides where exhausted ( conventionally ) or Russia moves out like in the Afghanistan war ( Soviet/Russia regime collapse )
 
REALHumanRights said:
I have always believed that Russia was a serious enough enemy to world peace that they need to be understood for who they are, and not who I want them to be. The more that US, UK, NATO and "the West" believe they can "humiliate" Russia, the more that the Russian people (even those who are against the Ukraine war) will dig in their heels, intensify the conflict, and further risk global escalation. We really don't help the Ukranian people like that. Russia is not going to "surrender" in Ukraine. Those of us hoping and waiting for that are not helping the Ukranian people. Giving the Russia government an off-ramp for a negotiated settlement and a DMZ is the smart path for a diplomatic solution.
Click to expand...

Russia is essentially 3rd world tier outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg. They wont surrender, but at some point they will declare victory (while not achieving anything) and leave. Because it's hard for info to get into their citizens to know the difference. And the ones that do know are too afraid to speak up.

Russia will be North Korea before long, and they brought it on their selves
 
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