• Guests may view all public nodes. However, you must be registered to post.

What is Russia preparing for May 9, 2022?

IMHO, no one of the options.

I would have voted: "Some parades in Russia, above all in Moscow".

I don't think that they will make a parade in Mariupol: it doen't have any sense to make a parade of victory without having won yet, and it will be a too important military target for Ukranian retaliation.

For the other options:
- General mobilization in Russia
Russia doesn't need that, and it has already mobilized a great number of troops that have to be fully organized.
- Official declaration of war on NATO without immediate action.
It's absurd.
- Very massive strikes, the worst since the start on Ukraine
Why? If it were appropriate to make such strikes, they would have surely already made them. Conversely, they will not made something just because 9 May is 9 May. They will made them, when it will be the right moment.
- Monster Cyberattack on the West.
Why? What is it the sense of that?

The question, should have been: "
What is Ukraine (and its allies) preparing for May 9, 2022?
 
Last edited:
william said:
I think putin will declare some kind of victory and cease hostilities. Then the question will be, will Ukraine let them? IMO
Click to expand...
It's absolutly impossible! It is very dangerous to have such ideas. I hope that in US you don't widely think like that, because it imply that you consider Russia on the verge of a collapse, and it is a great mistake. In donbass Russia is clearly preparing an huge offensive. They aren't doing what they are doing, just to withdraw tomorrow.
 
bartok said:
It's absolutly impossible! It is very dangerous to have such ideas. I hope that in US you don't widely think like that, because it imply that you consider Russia on the verge of a collapse, and it is a great mistake. In donbass Russia is clearly preparing an huge offensive. They aren't doing what they are doing, just to withdraw tomorrow.
Click to expand...
I never said russia was on the verge of collapse. The invasion forces have been bloodied though. You think they are preparing for an offensive? So far that hasn't worked very well for them. Is it possible they are digging in to hold ground?
 
william said:
I never said russia was on the verge of collapse. The invasion forces have been bloodied though. You think they are preparing for an offensive? So far that hasn't worked very well for them. Is it possible they are digging in to hold ground?
Click to expand...
As well Russia should not be telling themselves that NATO will never enter Ukraine to aid them.
It is very unlikely but their are no absolutes.
This is a war and wars have a tendency to flip their scripts
 
We don't know what Putin will say without:
- Knowing what his inner circle is feeding him (information-wise)
- His current state of mind
- His long term strategic plans (although we have a fairly good idea about what this is)
- The state of the Russian Armed Forces
 
william said:
I never said russia was on the verge of collapse. The invasion forces have been bloodied though. You think they are preparing for an offensive? So far that hasn't worked very well for them. Is it possible they are digging in to hold ground?
Click to expand...

I think you are not well informed. I follow a lot of info channels, some here, some on telegram, some on youtube, no one on the TV. And all of them are created by geopolical analysts. A lot of these channels agree on the fact that we are on the verge of a deep Russian offensive, and a likely Polish intervention. Actually, there is almost nothing that is really indicating that for Russia, things hasn't worked very well. For sure, they would have prefered to not lose Moskwa, or that Ukranian Army had surrended on the first days. But the narration about the fact that Russia was sure to win the war in a few days and that it is not ready for a longer war, it is something that we have self told by ourselves. No one can can realistically imagine that Russians had thought to attack a Country like Ukraine without knowing that heavy fighting would have been inevitable. So, if now a lot of people is thinking that Russia is in troubles, just because it didn't win the war in a few days, it doesn't mean that Russia is troubles, actually. Our weapons toward Ukraine are absolutly insufficient to change the balance and, furthermore, they are almost distroyed or captured. Understimate the ennemy is the right way to be detroyed. You say that you have never said that Russia is on the verge of the collapse, but if you think that is a possibility that tomorrow they could withdraw, it means that you actually think that they are losing and that they will leave "the game" before a defeat. Conversely, I think that we have already seen nothing. And I hope we will not be so stupid to want to see it. So, my hope is that Poland stays out, because the only way in order to change the balance, is not a Russian withdraw, but to raise the level of confrontation. And my suspect is that it could be accepted from the public opinion, only if the public opinion is persuaded that Russia is losing and that a war, will be a short war. WWI and WWII started like that. But when a war starts, it lasts for all the time it takes, not on the base of realities that we self told to ourselves.
 
Last edited:
bartok said:
I think you are not well informed. I follow a lot of info channels, some here, some on telegram, some on youtube, no one on the TV. And all of them are created by geopolical analysts. A lot of these channels agree on the fact that we are on the verge of a deep Russian offensive, and a likely Polish intervention. Actually, there is almost nothing that is really indicating that for Russia, things hasn't worked very well. For sure, they would have prefered to not lose Moskwa, or that Ukranian Army had surrended on the first days. But the narration about the fact that Russia was sure to win the war in a few days and that it is not ready for a longer war, it is something that we have self told by ourselves. No one can can realistically imagine that Russians had thought to attack a Country like Ukraine without knowing that heavy fighting would have been inevitable. So, if now a lot of people is thinking that Russia is in troubles, just because it didn't win the war in a few days, it doesn't mean that Russia is troubles, actually. Our weapons toward Ukraine are absolutly insufficient to change the balance and, furthermore, they are almost distroyed or captured. Understimate the ennemy is the right way to be detroyed. You say that you have never said that Russia is on the verge of the collapse, but if you think that is a possibility that tomorrow they could withdraw, it means that you actually think that they are losing and that they will leave "the game" before a defeat. Conversely, I think that we have already seen nothing. And I hope we will not be so stupid to want to see it. So, my hope is that Poland stays out, because the only way in order to change the balance, is not a Russian withdraw, but to raise the level of confrontation. And my suspect is that it could be accepted from the public opinion, only if the public opinion is persuaded that Russia is losing and that a war, will be a short war. WWI and WWII started like that. But when a war starts, it lasts for all the time it takes, not on the base of realities that we self told to ourselves.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure russia is capable of a deep offensive at the present time.
www.ukrinform.net

General Staff: Russian troops lose combat efficiency, involve reserves

Russian troops have lost their combat efficiency in some areas and put reserves into operation. — Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net www.ukrinform.net
defence24.com

Russia Losing 22 Battalion Tactical Groups: Is BTG a myth, or is it truly effective in combat? [ANALYSIS]

**Over the last two weeks of the war in Ukraine, we have heard many reports on the losses that the Russians have suffered from, which caused the Russian offensive to stop, according to the Ukrainian MoD.** **One should note that information warfare is intense in this domain. This does not make...
defence24.com defence24.com
charter97.org

British Intelligence: Russian Army Exhausted By Mariupol

Without sufficient logistical and combat support, the Russian Federation cannot achieve a significant breakthrough.
charter97.org charter97.org
 
I think it's a combination of the point 1 and 4. But we can't really say that before tomorrow, it's all speculation for now. If he decides to declare war on NATO, then ok well done, Palputin.

Russias big problems in this conflict for now are that their options are no direct Gamechangers in the Eastern Ukraine.

If they choose to Mobilize, they have to train masses of recruits.
If they choose to declare war... Well it takes two to make a pair.
 
william said:
I'm not sure russia is capable of a deep offensive at the present time.
www.ukrinform.net

General Staff: Russian troops lose combat efficiency, involve reserves

Russian troops have lost their combat efficiency in some areas and put reserves into operation. — Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net www.ukrinform.net
defence24.com

Russia Losing 22 Battalion Tactical Groups: Is BTG a myth, or is it truly effective in combat? [ANALYSIS]

**Over the last two weeks of the war in Ukraine, we have heard many reports on the losses that the Russians have suffered from, which caused the Russian offensive to stop, according to the Ukrainian MoD.** **One should note that information warfare is intense in this domain. This does not make...
defence24.com defence24.com
charter97.org

British Intelligence: Russian Army Exhausted By Mariupol

Without sufficient logistical and combat support, the Russian Federation cannot achieve a significant breakthrough.
charter97.org charter97.org
Click to expand...

These are not realiable and exaustive sources. Having said that, it's obvious that, at the present Russia, is not capable of a deep offensive: if it were, it would have already done so. I wonder if the our Occidental idea of war, is an easy trip that has to start and end in 3 days. The fact is that we are almost unaware of the times of a war. Do you know that Ukraine Army is using also weapon of WWII? What Russia is doing, is simply destroyng the Ukrainan capacity to react. When it will arrive the moment, Russia will breaks through the front deep inside Ukraine toward the West. It's obvious. It's for that reason that a Polish intervention is likey to happen soner o later, in order to defend the West part that is ethnically Polish. It's not the sinking of some ships, or the dead of some thousands troops, that make Russia lose. To make a war, it means that people die. People dying in a war, it doen't mean that someone is losing a war: it simply means that someone is doing a war. We, the NATO, we don't have casualities: it doesn't mean that we are winning. It means that we are not fighting a war.
 
Last edited:
bartok said:
These are not realiable and exaustive sources. Having said that, it's obvious that, at the present Russia, is not capable of a deep offensive: if it were, it would have already done so. I wonder if the our Occidental idea of war, is an easy trip that has to start and end in 3 days. The fact is that we are almost unaware of the times of a war. Do you know that Ukraine Army is using also weapon of WWII? What Russia is doing, is simply destroyng the Ukrainan capacity to react. When it will arrive the moment, Russia will breaks through the front deep inside Ukraine toward the West. It's obvious. It's for that reason that a Polish intervention is likey to happen soner o later, in order to defend the West part that is ethnically Polish. It's not the sinking of some ships, or the dead of some thousands troops, that make Russia lose. To make a war, it means that people die. People dying in a war, it doen't mean that someone is losing a war: it simply means that someone is doing a war. We, the NATO, we don't have casualities: it doesn't mean that we are winning. It means that we are not fighting a war.
Click to expand...
We keep hearing this grand strategy of Russia to lure in nato or Ukraine or Kiev was a fient.
That Russia wasn’t even using their best units. Or they haven’t even utilized there newer weaponry.
Yet the reports of downs 34’s and KA-52, and smoldering t-90’s keep appearing. Was the sinking of Russia’s BS flagship a ploy or “letting” its replacement to be damaged as well.
You are repeating Russian talking points. But the results on the battle field while Russia continues to adjust is battle plan and yet again reposition troops for some grand massed offensive front in the east. While Ukraine is being worn down.
None of that reflects reality of the last 63 days.
BTW. “We” westerners don’t refer to ourselves as “Occidentals”.
 
Obreid said:
We keep hearing this grand strategy of Russia to lure in nato or Ukraine or Kiev was a fient.
That Russia wasn’t even using their best units. Or they haven’t even utilized there newer weaponry.
Yet the reports of downs 34’s and KA-52, and smoldering t-90’s keep appearing. Was the sinking of Russia’s BS flagship a ploy or “letting” its replacement to be damaged as well.
You are repeating Russian talking points. But the results on the battle field while Russia continues to adjust is battle plan and yet again reposition troops for some grand massed offensive front in the east. While Ukraine is being worn down.
None of that reflects reality of the last 63 days.
BTW. “We” westerners don’t refer to ourselves as “Occidentals”.
Click to expand...

ehi McCarthy, it seems you see Communists everywhere. It doesn't change the facts. Suggesting that I am not Occidental just because I use che word "Occidental" and I think that Russia is winning, it doesn't change the fact that Russia is winning and that I am Occidental. If you don't believe in that, I don't care. The crime of opinion in yo... ops, our democracies is not still in place I think, so have respect for the opinions of others, or do you want to stay here to sing it to you alone and to play it to you alone what you want? What do you want that a say to you? Do you wnat that I say that Ukraine is winning? Ok, they are winning, though they are retreating on all fronts and even if they are recruiting people without military preparation and even if these people are ofeten armed with weapons of WWII. But they are winning, Putin is sick, he is mad, he is insane. Not like Biden. With Biden the world is safe. Biden, who shake the hand to the ghosts, and that farts in public. No problem with Biden: he is not sick, we don't have reasons to be worried about. Do you really know what is the problem? (and I say that because I am not Occidental, of course). In Russia, we know who is in charge: Putin. In the US, who is the one who has the real power? Biden is clearly not mentally sharp enough. So, the one of two: OR he is actually the man with the power (so, we are in hands of the ghosts near him), OR he don't have the actual power, so, in the US, the greater democracy in the world, we don't really know who is in charge. But these are clearly idiotic doubts: everything is going well.
 
Guess its good news for the world - No special announcement. We will see what the near future will bring.
 
It is nearly 6 PM in Russia, and as of 4 PM Russia local time, USA NBC News was still posting new articles up about "What does Putin have planned on Russia’s Victory Day?" Almost as if disappointed there has been new obvious new catastrophe tied to this. Of course, there is always "tonight."
We need to stop letting enemy Russia "in our head."
www.nbcnews.com

What Putin may be planning for Russia’s Victory Day

Experts say that after two months of thwarted offensives, Putin is left with limited options, from all-out mobilization to declaring victory in the eastern Donbas region.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
william said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1523543444127248385
Click to expand...
I believe the actual reaction of most of the Russian public will be the exact opposite of what the hacker intends. I believe that hacking their television signal will make most Russians more determined to continue the Ukraine war, not less. In fact, if I were an amoral Russian intelligence organization, I might consider to do such tactics to get the Russian people angry.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom