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Kaliningrad is armed to the teeth, if I'm not mistaken, so it wouldn't be that hard for them to get some troops running exercises on short notice.
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Kalingrad-Lithuania | 2022
- Thread starter dave II judgement day
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- Aug 11, 2010
- defconwarningsystem
- DEFCONWSALERTS
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I'd like to know for certain if it was pre-planned or not.
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- Feb 28, 2017
- Location
- Perth Western Australia
Nato country? Yeah that's right. Could be interesting.
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- Jan 12, 2022
Kaliningrad seceding from the russian federation because they have to import steel and color tv sets by ferry as opposed to rail?, all the while still being able to receive unsanctioned items by rail still? I doubt this outcome. They are starting negotiations now, who knows how that will go. I wonder if the russians have enough in kaliningrad already to bridge the gap. such a task would be a lot quicker than invading Ukraine, you have to realize how small and poorly defended this area is compared to say the donbass. however who knows if they would be willing to test nato in this way, I will note that the governor of kaliningrad has been speaking fairly softly on the issue, and the only reciprocal measures he mentions are economic, very different from federation council "all means" I will say that the governor of an oblast has a lot less say in military issues than someone higher up, and he likely doesn't want war on his footstep despite the fact that he hasnt much say in the matter. we will see if any specific repercussions are mentioned by high up talking heads in the russian fed in the coming days and hours, and what the EU says.
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- Oct 1, 2016
They did the same thing in early April 22 almost same number of units and troops.
I say it was reactionary not actually planned. It’s a tool to be able to have something to say publicly.
www.reuters.com
I say it was reactionary not actually planned. It’s a tool to be able to have something to say publicly.
Russia stages war games in Kaliningrad enclave, Ifax says
Russia staged war games on Saturday in Kaliningrad - an enclave on the Baltic Sea sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania - Interfax news agency cited the Baltic Fleet Command as saying, days after a senior official warned European countries against any potential action against Kaliningrad.
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- May 15, 2022
Depends what you consider "pre-planned". I'm inclined to believe that Russia had some advance notice of this shipping ban and took preparatory action, which might have included scheduling this exercise. I'm basing my belief on the following additional observations:
- A bill to revoke recognition of Lithuanian independence was submitted to the Duma last week by a member of Putin's ruling party;
- Patrushev is visiting Kaliningrad today on a trip that's said to have been "prearranged".
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- Mar 17, 2015
That's not really a millitary saying. It's more of a rule of thumb if you cross the same person (who you never saw before) in different locations, the 3rd time is when you should suspect being followed.
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- Apr 4, 2021
one more time: I have never said that Russia would be rolled Ukraine in a few time. This, it's what has been said by mass-media, that "Russia would be rolled Ukraine in 3 days", just to then say: "Russia is not succesfull". I have already said what IMHO it's happening in the Donbass front, and I confirm my opinion, already argued elsewhere, that is an absolute waste to resist: that front is destinated to be annihilated and a lot of people is sent there to die completely uselessly.
Ukraine should surrender and we MUST avoid the war: you don't really think about the possibility of a war. The blokade of Kalingrad it's a reckless act.
Twice. Twice is a problem.
Life is not about wondering if you are paranoid. Its about wondering if you are paranoid enough.
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- May 15, 2022
Depends on the stakes. False positives are a thing. And there's more randomness to life than most people would be willing to admit.
So by that logic, rape and robbery victims should not resist either? The point of resistance is: You fight to hurt the attacker. Victims need to make it an exercise in pain and costly for the aggressor. They are resisting for FUTURE victims.
(self-edited)
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- Joined
- Apr 4, 2021
It's a semplification. Russia has some objective (as not to say "a lot") reasons to have been warried about Ukraine posture and NATO aggressiveness. We can't deny that many attempts has been made, before the war, to reach some diplomatic compromises and it can't be denied that all of them as been neglected. If we continue to think in such semplicistic way, we go straight straight into a bigger war. To block the Kaligrad exclave is a very very severe action: there were no reasons to take such a provocative behaviour and it could have been avoided. The Kaliningrad blokade is not like stopping Russia from exporting: it's the equivalent to isolate a piece of Russian territory from the rest of the Country. It's a full-fledged act of war.
Some of you takes very lightly the idea of a war, as if we were speaking about to go dinner to McDonald or to Burger King. Maybe because you are in the US: it's very very much more easy. I think, if I were in your shoes, if someone would bock the Hawaii: for me, it would be easy to say: "it's right! What's the problem for me if US reacts... the war would be there!"
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- Jan 27, 2018
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Bro, it doesn't work. They just can't look seriously from the perspective of others. And when they do, they're always just looking to benefit themselves and hurt others more. All they know how to do is, "We will kill everyone who is against us! It's all Russia's fault!". That's their mentality for the rest of their lives.
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- Guayaquil - Ecuador
I do not agree with you, I am from a small country, militarily we are not even a regional power, we have been invaded several times by a neighboring country that is militarily stronger, although they have achieved their objectives in each military conflict, the inhabitants of my country and the armed forces were willing to go to the last consequences and every time a ceasefire was agreed we felt betrayed by the politicians, in the last conflict in 1995, such was the number of volunteers that showed up that the forces The armed forces had to reject people because they had run out of uniforms and weapons, and many people by their own means advanced to the closest barracks to the conflict area to be recruited.
To what I am going, your analysis is based on logic, but it does not consider the patriotism and love that one has with his nation and with its people, remember that you do not fight for the government, you fight for your family for your land and for your future and that of your children.
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- May 15, 2022
The Soviets blockaded West Berlin in 1948, and it was a proper blockade too, not this half-measure we're now witnessing. Still, war did not ensue (though it was undeniably a tense moment in history). As for the current situation - I think it might be wise to begin by asking about Russia's endgame. The Baltics are, and will remain, a hand grenade (they kind of even look like one, if you squint hard enough), but TBH I don't see any rational reason for Russia to pull the pin at this particular time. There are no nearby forces that could be used to seize and hold Lithuanian territory in the face of an inevitable NATO counterattack. That's not even close to being feasible, and I expect the Russian military to communicate this to "the boss". Yes, Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, but it's not an offensive platform - and as for Belarus, Lukashenka would perhaps be less than thrilled by the prospect of having Russia use his country as the springbord for an attack on NATO. Not to mention he's completely unprepared for any such adventure.
I suppose the most Russia can try to achieve right now is to engineer some sort of "Cuban Missile Crisis" moment, e.g. by staging a naval blockade of Lithuanian ports, and then offering to negotiate. Risky move, that, and with very little potential payoff. Not really consistent with Russia's demonstrated appetite for risk over the past months (at least if you discount their rhetoric). But I wouldn't put it past them.
I suppose we'll see - but if it turns out that Russia is indeed willing to court WW3 over a few trainloads of industrial goods, then WW3 is upon us anyway.
DucknCover
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FIRE AND FURY
Putin ally threatens to nuke
www.thesun.co.uk
It' has aircraft, airdefense, UAVs, tanks, artillery and soldiers.
Mobile land based ISKANDER-M launchers and nuclear armed silos.
Putin ally threatens to nuke 
Britain into extinction in Third World War and warns Nato is ‘playing with fire’
Putin ally threatens to nuke Britain into extinction in Third World War
AN ally of Vladimir Putin has threatened to nuke Britain into extinction in a Third World War and warned Nato is “playing with fire”. Retired general Evgeny Buzhinsky’s chilling comments come as Li…
www.thesun.co.uk
Kaliningrad is called to be an unsinkable aircraft carrier for a reason.
It' has aircraft, airdefense, UAVs, tanks, artillery and soldiers.
Mobile land based ISKANDER-M launchers and nuclear armed silos.
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- Apr 4, 2021
However, you are very far from what is happening here, like the US. Furthermore, it's true what you say, but it doesn't fit very much on Ukraine: it could be true for West-Ukraine.
In fact, I don't think that Russia is going to attack: I never said that, and, on the contrary, I have said that Russia is not going to attack. The very likely retaliation could be, besides what you said, the total power cut from Russia.
About what you said regarding the Soviet blokade of Berlin, it's true that it was a proper blockade, but it's not true that we could minimaze the current situation as an "half-measure", because, if we use this meter for the Soviet blockade, it was an half-measure too: we made an airlift and Soviets didn't shoot down the aircrafts. If it were a true, strong blockade, the aircrafts would have been hit.
So, I ask you: what about if Russia will force the blockade with an airlift (that could be much more then possible)? What will we do? Should we shoot-down the aircrafts? As you can see, the answer is not so evident: so we can't really say if that situation is better or worser compared to the Soviet blockade. In summary, Russia is not going to attack, but it could force the blockade with an airlift and if we shoot-down the aircrafts - which is at least 50% possible - it means war. So we don't really are so far from a war, and if you think very well about what is going on, we are simply betting on the fact that Russia will not have enough bravery to try an airlift, all of that, on the misleading base of thinking that Russia is far less powerfull than it really is. In short words, we are gambling upping the ante each time in a game in which we take for granted that we are the dialer: that is exactly what happens each time a war begin.
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- Jan 27, 2018
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- Guayaquil - Ecuador
In the conflict of 1981 I was 16 years old and I went to the airport of my city to drive stakes into vacant lots to prevent vertical landings, and in 1995 I was a volunteer firefighter and we were deployed to protect an oil facility on the coast, I do not live in the USA
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- May 15, 2022
Don't think it has any silos. It has those other things, but not enough to launch an attack on NATO without having "the cavalry" thunder in from the east. And the cavalry is currently engaged in Ukraine. Also, Kaliningrad has zero strategic depth and very limited resupply potential. You can be sure that if Russia ever attacks NATO, it won't be just from Kaliningrad. Thus, I believe the threat of a conventional land invasion is very low to nonexistent - at least while the war in UA grinds on.
Standoff attacks are another thing, but it's unclear what purpose they might serve, other than to aggravate the political situation and force the West to double down on its support for UA. Which would be kind of bad for Russia, to put it mildly. Honestly, if Putin wants to go for broke then a naval blockade would probably make the most sense right now (but even that would be a pretty dumb move).
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