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UA-RU | DISCUSSIONS

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Taz said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1540387544881418244

Can't seem to find the initial source on this? But this seem a pretty significant increase in rhetoric.
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NATO has always been a nuclear alliance
Socom7 said:
Interesting report on large quantities of ammunition currently being taken out of storage in Belarus and shipped by rail to Russia. Not consistent with preparations for WW3 - or, indeed, with Shoigu's statement regarding the urgent need to "increase the readiness of the grouping of the Union State's armed forces" and Russia "offering every help in this regard".
https://twitter.com/x/status/1540354447163146240
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wonder if it’s going north or south in Russia.
 
Socom7 said:
Note: if you're wondering what Lukashenka might be discussing with the governor of St. Petersburg - there have been reports a while ago that Russia is offering to provide him with access to port facilities to enable maritime trade on a semi-autonomous basis. Of course, that comes with a price tag - which will perhaps be on the agenda tomorrow.
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Yep, that call seems to have been on the money. At least now we know it's St. Petersburg; when the first reports came out a while ago of "Putin and Lukashenka discussing BY access to ports" it sort of sounded like they were talking about Klaipeda. 😁

1656166365093.png
 
william said:
Defcon staff, you keeping your eye on this and the above post? I'm just reposting twitter feeds. Don't know if it's click bate or not.
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First of all, Mstislav is in the extreme east of Belarus; just across the border from Russia. Secondly, that was four and a half hours ago. If this was a bombing run, we would have heard about it by now. Thirdly, even the Twitter post you cite claims that it could "again" be long-range bombers. Evidently, this has happened before. Fourthly, there are currently no air raid alerts in effect in Ukraine (except in Kharkiv oblast). Yeah, I'm monitoring this stuff.

Look, I understand we're all on edge, but there's currently no imminent reason to panic.
 
DarkNoon said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1540815190744338432
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The motorcade isn't surprising. It's the way presidents travel. Nor is the timing - Putin is back from Petersburg and may have business at the Kremlin for a myriad of reasons. He's also notorious for being a night owl.

I'd say the most interesting aspect of all this is that Peskov was pretty quick to comment on Putin's arrival. (He was responding to a TASS question as to whether Putin was preparing some sort of emergency statement, and said - and this is an exact translation - "No, it's not like that.") This is somewhat concerning, but not majorly so.
 
DarkNoon said:
Russia is days away from a historic debt default as a $100 million payment comes due with Moscow cut off from the global financial system:
markets.businessinsider.com

Russia is days away from a historic debt default as a $100 million payment comes due with Moscow cut off from the global financial system

By Sunday night — the last day of a 30-day grace period — Russia must pay roughly $100 million to bondholders, or else it will fall into default.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com
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Just what exactly practical immediate effects might this have.
 
Here's a theory to chew on: Russia suddenly strikes apartment buildings in Kyiv with precious cruise missiles. Indiscriminate terror? Today the Russian media reports there are CIA operatives active in UA, mainly in Kyiv. Let's put 2 and 2 together.

Would also explain Putin's arrival at the Kremlin last night; if they were specifically targeting Americans then it's probably something that Putin would have to personally authorize.
 
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Socom7 said:
Here's a theory to chew on: Russia suddenly strikes apartment buildings in Kyiv with precious cruise missiles. Indiscriminate terror? Today the Russian media reports there are CIA operatives active in UA, mainly in Kyiv. Let's put 2 and 2 together.

Would also explain Putin's arrival at the Kremlin last night; if they were specifically targeting Americans then it's probably something that Putin would have to personally sign off on.
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Hmmmmmm :unsure:
 
Socom7 said:
It also fits in well as non-escalatory revenge for HIMARS, particularly as the CIA is obviously feeding intelligence to UA armed forces. The timing seems correct, and the US would certainly get the message.
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Valid points. Also, might encourage all those foreign dignitaries and Hollywood folk to re-think visiting Kyiv for their photo-ops. Just a thought.
 
Socom7 said:
Here's a theory to chew on: Russia suddenly strikes apartment buildings in Kyiv with precious cruise missiles. Indiscriminate terror? Today the Russian media reports there are CIA operatives active in UA, mainly in Kyiv. Let's put 2 and 2 together.

Would also explain Putin's arrival at the Kremlin last night; if they were specifically targeting Americans then it's probably something that Putin would have to personally authorize.
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I believe some residential towers have already been hit. Wouldn’t necessarily be a”new” tactic.
There was the coincidence when Blinkin was leaving Kiev. Several rail stations were hit soon after he crossed back into Poland.
 
DarkNoon said:
Not confirmed and please take this with a elephant sized grain of salt.
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What is Wind of Change? Is this a potential leak? Makes me wonder if this is true, I wonder what the level of classification was for this information. Would love to see more sources and analysis of this.
 
Narwal808 said:
What is Wind of Change? Is this a potential leak? Makes me wonder if this is true, I wonder what the level of classification was for this information. Would love to see more sources and analysis of this.
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My understanding is the guy has sources within FSB that's none too happy about Putin. He has a video on YouTube explaining what he does. Sorry I forgot to add unconfirmed
 
Narwal808 said:
What is Wind of Change? Is this a potential leak?
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Just basic Google-fu here...
According to Reuters, Vladimir Osechkin is a 'prominent' rights activist wanted by the Russian government after releasing leaked videos of torture and rape in Russia's prison system on his organization's website (Gulagu) last year. "Russia later added Sergei Savelyev, a Belarusian national who leaked the videos to Gulagu.net, to its wanted list."
www.reuters.com

Russia adds prison rights campaigner to wanted list after torture videos leak

The founder of a prominent rights group that monitors and reveals abuses in Russia's prison system said on Friday he had been placed on a wanted list by Russian authorities.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
The more recent Wind of Change letters (which come from "whistleblowers") hosted on the website make no mention of vetting practices, so I'd classify as RUMINT at best.
 
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