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UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS 14th July - 1st October 2023

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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 25, 2023​

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www.understandingwar.org

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may pose during an impromptu two-day extension of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to St. Petersburg. BBC’s Russian Service reported on...
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

There are some interesting concerns and comments concerning Wagner.
 
Irag8er said:
www.understandingwar.org

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to manifest concern over potential threats that the Wagner Group and its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may pose during an impromptu two-day extension of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to St. Petersburg. BBC’s Russian Service reported on...
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

There are some interesting concerns and comments concerning Wagner.
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Yeah I usually try and keep up with ISW's assessments. They're fairly on-point.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
Yeah I usually try and keep up with ISW's assessments. They're fairly on-point.
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I respectfully disagree. I regard ISW as mildly trustworthy, and also believe that MSM has an "ISW problem", so to speak. In general, ISW are good with facts, but pretty lousy with analyses and predictions.

This is literally the first time I've heard that it was Putin who expressed concerns over Wagnerite actions in Belarus. If anything, it was Luka - not Putin - who publicly raised the issue during the meeting. Note that no source for this very dubious claim is cited in the ISW report.

The statement "Putin’s decision to prolong his meeting with Lukashenko likely shows Putin’s continued concerns about Wagner, which it appears that Lukashenko did not allay" - is another eyebrow raiser. Again: it was Luka who consistently appeared concerned that the Wagner guys might pull some weird s**t. Putin did not seem to concur; at least not publicly. Furthermore - the claim that this was "likely" the reason behind the prolongation of Luka's visit rings hollow. I can think of a myriad other reasons, and, again, ISW did not see fit to grace us with sources.

Bottom line: I really don't know where the ISW people are getting their info from, but I strongly suspect it might be their own hindquarters. This organization has a veneer of respectability, and is the darling of MSM, but if you pull back the curtain you'll find people like us - making more or less educated guesses on the basis of OSINT and public press releases.
 
Socom7 said:
I respectfully disagree. I regard ISW as mildly trustworthy, and also believe that MSM has an "ISW problem", so to speak. In general, ISW are good with facts, but pretty lousy with analyses and predictions.


if you pull back the curtain you'll find people like us - making more or less educated guesses on the basis of OSINT and public press releases.
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I agree to an extent that the MSM treats their opinions and statements as gospel, and really they should do extra research. I do love their Ukraine map though. Very handy.
With regards to their predictions, everyone will make a mistake at some point, I'm pretty sure DWS has made some predictions which turned out to be BS in the past.

Generally ISW's staff is more well-educated than the average OSINT person. Look at their qualifications! Institute for the Study of War
 
I only follow or plot ISW for trends, multi -day movements.

Not day today to day movements.
It would be extremely hard to deliver time stamped incremental movements. Even significant movemants.
Just my opinion
 
Socom7 said:
A general election is due in Poland this fall, and it is in the Kremlin's interest to keep the existing lot in power
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Poland Passed A Law That Will Force ALL Politicians To Show Their Financial Records To See If They Have Russian Connections Like Donations Or Investment From/Inside Russia.
If Politicians Found Guilty Of Having Financial Connections To Russia They Will Be Barred For Running In ANY Public Office!!!

👏👏👏😁
 
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Totality 🌻 said:
Poland Passed Law That Will Force ALL Politicians To Show Their Financial Records To See If They Have Russian Connections Like Donations Or Investment From/Inside Russia.
If Politicians Found Guilty Of Having Financial Connections To Russia They Will Be Barred From Office Or Barred From Running For Office!!! 👏👏👏
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Enjoy the salty tears of these Putin butt buddies. This is a amazing law! Thank God these idiot, moronic, and useless fucks protesting this won't get a say and this law has already passed! * 🇷🇺

WE NEED THIS LAW IN US AND ALL OF EUROPE!!!
 
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Totality 🌻 said:
Enjoy the salty tears of these Putin butt buddies. This is a amazing law! Thank God these idiot, moronic, and useless fucks protesting this won't get a say and this law has already passed! * 🇷🇺

WE NEED THIS LAW IN US AND ALL OF EUROPE!!!
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I offer the following response, somewhat tongue-in-cheek:

Such a law in the US might get overturned by federal courts for singling out Russia or being racist against Russians.

Something almost analogous was tried with the Trump immigration bans (certain countries were targeted by name) and some parts were blocked by the courts (Trump travel ban - Wikipedia).
 
teekay99 said:
I offer the following response, somewhat tongue-in-cheek:

Such a law in the US might get overturned by federal courts for singling out Russia or being racist against Russians.

Something almost analogous was tried with the Trump immigration bans (certain countries were targeted by name) and some parts were blocked by the courts (Trump travel ban - Wikipedia).
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Well at least Poland is doing this and MANY other EU nations (particularly the Baltic/Nordics) are now considering following suit! 👏👏👏
 
Totality 🌻 said:
Well at least Poland is doing this and MANY other EU nations (particularly the Baltic/Nordics) are now considering following suit! 👏👏👏
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Honestly, if a convincing case for national security issues were successfully made, and given current popular discontent with Russia, I would not be surprised if something similar succeeds in passing in the US. Particularly when "Russian meddling in the 2016 election" (whether true or false) is added to the argument.
 
teekay99 said:
Honestly, if a convincing case for national security issues were successfully made, and given current popular discontent with Russia, I would not be surprised if something similar succeeds in passing in the US. Particularly when "Russian meddling in the 2016 election" (whether true or false) is added to the argument.
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Well it's just wishful thinking for the US really.

But EU states are most likely going to pass something very similar if not the same as Poland has. Particularly in Eastern Europe the Baltic and Nordic States. 100% cut off any chance Russia influences politicians in Europe.
 
Totality 🌻 said:
Thank God these idiot, moronic, and useless fucks protesting this won't get a say and this law has already passed!
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You really need to stop holding back. The stress from surpressed rage will damage your heart. hahaha!
 
Totality 🌻 said:
Funny!!! My doctor says I need to lower my blood pressure. Hahahaha... wonder why. 🤔🤣😬
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Take this opportunity to lower your pressure with a little laugh (hopefully)...
To the tune of "Blame Canada" from the South Park movie:

🎶🎶🎶Blame Russia, blame Russia
With all their beady little spies have packed their heads so full of lies, blame Russia, blame Russia,
We need to form a full assault its all Russia's fault 🎶🎶🎶
 
william said:
I don't think it's cowardice. I think the powers that be are trying to avoid this.

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I see the video. It is interesting because it says a lot of technical data. But it gives the idea that Russia will stay there to take US missiles doing nothing... I don't think.
 
bartok said:
I see the video. It is interesting because it says a lot of technical data. But it gives the idea that Russia will stay there to take US missiles doing nothing... I don't think.
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no one wins a war with a war where both parties use massive nuke use, must keep it conventional or we all die................
 
Nick Scarbelli said:
no one wins a war with a war where both parties use massive nuke use, must keep it conventional or we all die................
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Actually the video says that the more likely scenario is the counterforce plan. I think it is the same for Russia. However to keep a conventional simmetrical war in someway contained, it's quite "difficult". Regardless the first act in which Russia has entered Ukraine (not going so far away compared to where it still was before) if the war is still not escalated into a major war is thank's primaly to Russia itself, that plays the role of the wall and that has demostrated that its "red lines" are pink bands 100 kms large. But finally someone will win and someone else will lose. "North-Sounth Korea"'' solutions are almost exceptions than rules and it could happen only when both parts have spent all their offensive capacity: it is not the case in both parts. To be fixed to reach this goal keeping all this "conventional" is dangerous.
 
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bartok said:
Actually the video says that the more likely scenario is the counterforce plan. I think it is the same for Russia. However to keep a conventional simmetrical war in someway contained, it's quite "difficult". Regardless the first act in which Russia has entered Ukraine (not going so far away compared to where it still was before) if the war is still not escalated into a major war is thank's primaly to Russia itself, that plays the role of the wall and that has demostrated that its "red lines" are pink bands 100 kms large. But finally someone will win and someone else will lose. "North-Sounth Korea"'' solutions are almost exceptions than rules and it could happen only when both parts have spent all their offensive capacity: it is not the case in both parts. To be fixed to reach this goal keeping all this "conventional" is dangerous.
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good luck with trusting your life on a video real life things are alot different .
 
bartok said:
I see the video. It is interesting because it says a lot of technical data. But it gives the idea that Russia will stay there to take US missiles doing nothing... I don't think.
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The video concludes with a statement that addresses your concern, effectively saying that the Russians have or will respond, "stay tuned for part 2." I would love to see it.
I've seen some of the other videos by this same YouTube content creator, some have factual errors. So it's good entertainment that at least gives us some high-level understanding of what could happen. I am not sure I would call it authoritative though.
 
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