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What the Israeli Retaliation Will Be - Discussion/Speculation

Spyglass

Spyglass

Power Poster II
Joined
Jan 23, 2020
What do you think the retaliation from Israel and friends will be? It’s very quiet…big plans are brewing.

Personally I believe the nuke facilities, airstrips, missile launch sites, and command and control will be hit. Anything to cripple another escalation. Logically, the only chance is to do it now, and hit them as hard as possible with every stealth aircraft/submarine at our disposal. This will be NATO, and Bibi’s shock and awe. Iran is not well liked. Might be time to vote them off the island.

I have a slight doom bias, though. So what do you guys think the logical retaliation is?
 
I deeply believe when Israel strikes back the situation is going to rapidly degrade. This time the Iranian response will likely be relatively swift and so will the Israeli reply. After Hez jumps in too and all bets are off. I think the main target will be nuclear facilities with AA positions equally important. I don't think oil refineries are an immediate target but who knows. Right now best thing to do is have the popcorn in the pot.
 
Yingyang said:
Hopefully Israel doesn't go stupid. Otherwise they get what they deserve. Iran was very restrained in making their point. 🤞Israel realised it.
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Iran's response was likely constrained by the capability (ineffectiveness?) of their conventional military forces and weaponry. Perhaps it was their version of a proportional response.

And if Iran truly thinks their response would lead to an Israeli response, I believe Iran is holding back the only true card it can play - an unleashing of vile terrorists, perhaps armed with dirty bombs or even a simplistic nuclear device for use against Israel and the US interests (and, speculating here, this might be weapon that Iran alluded to when they said they would respond with something we've never seen before).

My hope is that the Israelis show some restraint in their response. Perhaps a clandestine response is in order, something along the lines of Смерть шпиoнам (Smert’ shpiónam) to Iranian intelligence and terrorist services. (I got this from the James Bond movie The Living Daylights. So yeah there is some perhaps unrealistic fantasy in my thinking here :) .)

I don't think Iran would openly order the launch of a nuclear weapon from their territory or military assets at this stage in their nuclear development (if they have any they can use). My belief is that their arsenal and defense capabilities are too small and insignificant to stand up against a retaliatory response of any kind from the US. To me, such an act would be the end of the Islamic republic, and the more pragmatic leaders in Iran must know this.
 
teekay99 said:
Iran's response was likely constrained by the capability (ineffectiveness?) of their conventional military forces and weaponry. Perhaps it was their version of a proportional response.

And if Iran truly thinks their response would lead to an Israeli response, I believe Iran is holding back the only true card it can play - an unleashing of vile terrorists, perhaps armed with dirty bombs or even a simplistic nuclear device for use against Israel and the US interests (and, speculating here, this might be weapon that Iran alluded to when they said they would respond with something we've never seen before).

My hope is that the Israelis show some restraint in their response. Perhaps a clandestine response is in order, something along the lines of Смерть шпиoнам (Smert’ shpiónam) to Iranian intelligence and terrorist services. (I got this from the James Bond movie The Living Daylights. So yeah there is some perhaps unrealistic fantasy in my thinking here :) .)

I don't think Iran would openly order the launch of a nuclear weapon from their territory or military assets at this stage in their nuclear development (if they have any they can use). My belief is that their arsenal and defense capabilities are too small and insignificant to stand up against a retaliatory response of any kind from the US. To me, such an act would be the end of the Islamic republic, and the more pragmatic leaders in Iran must know this.
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Iranian military ,Airforce, missiles etc is very impressive. Haven't you checked?
 
Yingyang said:
Iranian military ,Airforce, missiles etc is very impressive. Haven't you checked?
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Not really. But I did see US and Israeli forces swat down their "offensive" with a collective "yawn". They've been embargoed for years and can't even get parts for their commercial aircraft. How impressive can they really be?
 
teekay99 said:
Not really. But I did see US and Israeli forces swat down their "offensive" with a collective "yawn". They've been embargoed for years and can't even get parts for their commercial aircraft. How impressive can they really be?
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Because @Yingyang is sad, I looked just a smidge deeper to cheer him up :).
www.nytimes.com

A Look at Iran’s Military Capabilities

The direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel has brought renewed attention to Iran’s armed forces. What are they capable of?
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

An interesting quote from the article:
How do other countries see Iran’s military, and what are its weaknesses?
Iran’s military is viewed as one of the strongest in the region in terms of equipment, cohesion, experience and quality of personnel, but it lags far behind the power and sophistication of the armed forces of the United States, Israel and some European countries, experts said.

Iran’s greatest weakness is its air force. Much of the country’s aircraft date from the era of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who led Iran from 1941 to 1979, and many have been disabled for lack of spare parts. The country also bought a small fleet from Russia in the 1990s, experts said.

Iran’s tanks and armored vehicles are old, and the country has only a few large naval vessels, experts said. Two intelligence gathering vessels, the Saviz and Behshad, deployed on the Red Sea, have aided the Houthis in identifying Israeli-owned ships for attacks, American officials have said.
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If Israel goes to war with Iran I truly believe it’ll just cause another unmanageable insurgency. I hope it’s a limited strike so 10 other countries don’t get pulled into another middle eastern war. The Middle East is almost beyond saving at this point unless these countries are invaded and the governments are replaced which would be a brutal years long endeavor. Deterrence doesn’t have the effect it used to because for one point American threats don’t mean the same thing if we aren’t going to enforce them. We told Iran not to do it and they still sent a record breaking missile strike. (Heavily opinionated rant)
 
The problem is, if Iran and Israel get into a direct military conflict, it’s not just Iran and Israel. It’s everyone in the region. Not a whole lot can shut that Pandora’s box.
 
Yingyang said:
Hopefully Israel doesn't go stupid. Otherwise they get what they deserve. Iran was very restrained in making their point. 🤞Israel realised it.
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Come on! close to a 100 cruise missiles, drones and ballistic missiles fired at a nation the geographic size of Israel is not restrained.
It was a saturation attack to make way for heavy ballistic missiles.
Just because its results were minimal doesn’t reflect the intended effort.
 
Ah yes I see . Reminds me of similar attitudes about Russia-ukraine conflict in the beginning.
Well let's see if this turns out differently. The west use the reason Russia is a super power not to risk. I guess they cannot use that reason for Iran. What will they come up with this time?
 
'Israel will carry out a major attack on Iran with the support of the USA (in secret) and Iran will respond with the support of Russia (in secret), so it will be a long Iran-Israel war. So, USA against Russia by proxy as usual.
 
Yingyang said:
Ah yes I see . Reminds me of similar attitudes about Russia-ukraine conflict in the beginning.
Well let's see if this turns out differently. The west use the reason Russia is a super power not to risk. I guess they cannot use that reason for Iran. What will they come up with this time?
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I’m not sure I understand your post
It’s no big deal that Ukraine is launching drone attacks into Russia is somehow comparable to this situation.
or Russia sending almost nightly cruise and ballistic attacks into Ukraine is what is somehow comparable.

All that said what is remarkable is that Ukraine can actually successfully hit their intended targets several hundred miles inside Russia without a saturation effort or hitting apartment buildings.
 
OReid said:
I’m not sure I understand your post
It’s no big deal that Ukraine is launching drone attacks into Russia is somehow comparable to this situation.
or Russia sending almost nightly cruise and ballistic attacks into Ukraine is what is somehow comparable.

All that said what is remarkable is that Ukraine can actually successfully hit their intended targets several hundred miles inside Russia without a saturation effort or hitting apartment buildings.
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Speculation i guess. I'm just wondering what the hesitation is allowing Iran to as some say launch such attack against Israel while only taking out some drones and missiles without actually attacking Iran. Defending Israel is one thing . But it seems support in regional conflicts is more and more limited nowadays. Help defend allies seems more admirable really. But obviously something has changed with attacking attitudes compared to a couple of decades ago.
 
Yingyang said:
Speculation i guess. I'm just wondering what the hesitation is allowing Iran to as some say launch such attack against Israel while only taking out some drones and missiles without actually attacking Iran. Defending Israel is one thing . But it seems support in regional conflicts is more and more limited nowadays. Help defend allies seems more admirable really. But obviously something has changed with attacking attitudes compared to a couple of decades ago.
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I wasn’t and I didn’t. I disagreed with the characterization of their attack as being restrained.
And Israel did attack Iran and Israel should have expected an Iranian response. Which evidently they did.

But a 100 drones, cruise missile, and ballistic missiles is not what I would call restrained
 
Initial reports coming out that Iran is now under attack.

Reports of explosions near city of Isfahan - Home to one of Irans Major Nuclear Facilities.

Source - OSNITdefender on X (cannot link atm)
 
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