April-May/2025 | India-Pakistan -Kashmir | Terror Attack Fallout | Discussions

[Deleted account]

Assuming India is going to attack Pakistan - it's interesting to note that being a nuclear power is not only no deterrent to being on the receiving end of a conventional military attack*, but that it's relatively easy to whip your populace into such a frenzy that they will demand war with a nuclear-armed neighbor.

That's something the leaders of major nuclear powers would be wise to consider...

*) This was kind of known already - in 1973 a coalition of Arab states launched an aggressive war against Israel despite being aware that Israel had nuclear weapons.

 

[Snowfall]

Assuming India is going to attack Pakistan - it's interesting to note that being a nuclear power is not only no deterrent to being on the receiving end of a conventional military attack*, but that it's relatively easy to whip your populace into such a frenzy that they will demand war with a nuclear-armed neighbor.

That's something the leaders of major nuclear powers would be wise to consider...

*) This was kind of known already - in 1973 a coalition of Arab states launched an aggressive war against Israel despite being aware that Israel had nuclear weapons.

The level of hate between India and Pakistan means nothing is enough to be a deterrent. This is different than every other nuclear armed state EXCEPT Israel and Iran. This isn’t some “relatively easy” belief that appeared overnight this has taken decades to get to this level of hatred. Especially when there is precedent that the two sides are capable of fighting conventionally. Every conventional conflict between the two erodes deterrence more and more which is why nuclear powers avoid going to war not necessarily because it’s instant nukes but it builds comfort that they can attack each other and the next time they might be forced to resort to them.

 

[Sentry]

Truth be told, people think Pakistan will not hit back, that we will hit them hard and they’ll be too scared to hit back. Many think Pakistan isn’t even capable of hitting back. It is precisely this level of underestimating the enemy that drives this war fever and overconfidence.

 

[Sentry]

The level of hate between India and Pakistan means nothing is enough to be a deterrent. This is different than every other nuclear armed state EXCEPT Israel and Iran. This isn’t some “relatively easy” belief that appeared overnight this has taken decades to get to this level of hatred.

Spot on.

 

[Torch]

There is no threshold number of people to be killed by a terror attack to justify military action.

Of course there is. What is crazy is that India is risking a nuclear war over 26 people. Probably all fine normal folks. But 26.

India has what 1.6 trillion people? Death rate of 9.0+, that means that over 25,000 died WHILE I wrote this (basis 1.5B, MR 09, 1 minute)

Now 50,000…
26 is a rounding error when it comes to Nuclear War. Just have some air raids on the now empty training sites, perhaps send in Special Operations teams to kill or capture a few terrorists and be done.

Jacking around with the water supply (80%) of a Nuclear armed rival will get you a total war (maybe not right away but soon enough) then the loser fires his warheads.

I’m all for the Indians hunting down and killing the terrorist (an act sure to anger Pakistan some) but as for the water supply situation: FAFO

My2¢ YMMV

 

[Sentry]

in 1973 a coalition of Arab states launched an aggressive war against Israel despite being aware that Israel had nuclear weapons.

What is different here is that both nations are nuclear armed, not just one.

 

[NuclearID]

WARNING SIGN

After the families of Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir, DG ISPR Lt Gen Asim Malik and CJCSC General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, now the families of Lt Gen Nauman Zakaria and Lt Gen Inam Haider Malik also left Pakistan for Australia and Canada this morning.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916177589837959361

Yeah... That's a very bad sign.

This isn't just "some elites leaving" this is evacuation of several (THREE NOW) senior military leadership's families. That telegraphs internally that:

• They expect severe instability, possibly civil war conditions.
• They no longer trust the state's ability to guarantee their families' safety even in protected enclaves.
• They are preparing for worst case escalation either domestically (coup, internal collapse) or externally (full Indo-Pak war).

In nuclear armed states... especially Pakistan's structure, where nukes are held by the military (not civilian politicians)... when generals' families flee, it means they believe they might lose control, physically or politically.️

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch

 

[Sentry]

WARNING SIGN

Yeah... That's a very bad sign.

This isn't just "some elites leaving" this is evacuation of several (THREE NOW) senior military leadership's families. That telegraphs internally that:

• They expect severe instability, possibly civil war conditions.
• They no longer trust the state's ability to guarantee their families' safety even in protected enclaves.
• They are preparing for worst case escalation either domestically (coup, internal collapse) or externally (full Indo-Pak war).

In nuclear armed states... especially Pakistan's structure, where nukes are held by the military (not civilian politicians)... when generals' families flee, it means they believe they might lose control, physically or politically.️

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch

Is Pakistan domestically in that bad of a situation as to warrant "civil war"? I'd assume this is fully because of the tensions with India.

 

[Deleted account]

India has what 1.6 trillion people? Death rate of 9.0+, that means that over 25,000 died WHILE I wrote this (basis 1.5B, MR 09, 1 minute)
Now 50,000…

You're off by a factor of 1000, but I agree with your point. This terror attack is obviously a pretext, and not the cause for the war. As for the actual cause - as usual, it's not a single event or circumstance. Some important factors that come to mind:

• Perceived military disparity between the two sides (India believes it has conventional superiority - and they're probably correct);
• General state of global politics (all major powers severely distracted; no interest on the part of the global community in deescalating this conflict);
• India's longstanding enmity with Pakistan, and - more importantly - their belief that Pakistan would be a Chinese asset in the brewing geopolitical struggle (note that India's actual geopolitical enemy is China, not Pakistan - the latter is thought of more as a client state of the former);
• Climate change, desertification of farmland and the consequent desire to control Central Asia's montane ecoregions (sometimes referred to as Earth's "third pole"), which are a vital source of water.

 

[NuclearID]

Is Pakistan domestically in that bad of a situation as to warrant "civil war"? I'd assume this is fully because of the tensions with India.

They have always been fragile. What stability Pakistan presents to the world has long been a mask.

Beneath it, the reality is a patchwork of factions or terrorist... a loose collection of self interested groups, not a unified nation. Now that mask is cracking.

War will likely accelerate their internal collapse.

My greater concern isn't simply a conventional defeat or formal nuclear exchange... but also now the risk of nuclear weapons being lost, seized, or used without proper authorization in the event of a Pakistani government collapse or loss of control.

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch

 

[Sentry]

They have always been fragile. Just the fake mask of stability is coming inside Pakistan. Just a ragtag team of terrorist only out for their own self-interests not the nation. War will likly tear them apart...

I'm afraid of nuclear weapons going missing or being used in a unauthorized way.

Aside from nuclear war with India... imagine if some of those weapons went to Iran or Al-Qaeda..

 

[Deleted account]

I'm afraid of nuclear weapons going missing or being used in a unauthorized way.

I suspect it's not that easy to rig a nuclear missile warhead for a different mode of delivery - even a suicide bombing. They're not hand grenades, they don't come in an easy-to-use package (in fact, they're stored in a somewhat disassembled state), and they require appropriate storage conditions lest they go bad.

That said, I really have no idea about Pakistan's nuclear use protocols or the likelihood of the nuclear chain of command being subverted. This being Pakistan I would expect security to be less airtight than in the US or, say, China...

 

[NuclearID]

I suspect it's not that easy to rig a nuclear missile warhead for a different mode of delivery -

I was considering the risk of rogue commanders if the Pakistani government loses its grip on the country and military leadership, as I laid out earlier post above.

Pakistan isn't a unified state, it's a fragile coalition of factions that often hate each other but barely maintain a functioning government together.

If that brittle structure collapses under wieght like a war, the danger isn't just disorder, it's factions vying for power, with potential access to nuclear assets.

 

[intel-bank]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916077961876275469

Pakistani media report flooding in Pakistan after India releases all previously blocked water at once without notification. This is the Jhelam river, part of the Indus Water Treaty. In the video, the person recording claims the water is at least 30 feet above what it used to be.

Hey, they only said india can't cut off the water supply, nothing about being given all sorts of water.

 

[Deleted account]

Pakistan isn't a unified state, it's a fragile coalition of factions that often hate each other but barely maintain a functioning government together.
If that brittle structure collapses under wieght like a war, the danger isn't just disorder, it's factions vying for power, with potential access to nuclear assets.

That's true, and something for India to consider as it weighs its next move.

 

[Sentry]

At this point, we're waiting for military action. Only variables being when and how severe.

 

[Deleted account]

Still says 5 for me btw.

 

[Peter Griffin]

At this point, we're waiting for military action. Only variables being when and how severe.

Times like these make you wish humans had never created religion. So much violence over centuries of shared existence, all in the name of my God is better than your God. It is a sad world for any creator to bear witness to. I hope you and your family along with your friends are doing alright in spite of all of this. The chances are slim for a diplomatic offramp but nonetheless the most strained controversial peace deal is still ultimately better than the price that will be paid in this conflict. I am hoping the world has learned this price through what has happened in Ukraine but I am worried that it's lessons have also been buried by hate and anger.

 

[intel-bank]

Times like these make you wish humans had never created religion. So much violence over centuries of shared existence, all in the name of my God is better than your God. It is a sad world for any creator to bear witness to. I hope you and your family along with your friends are doing alright in spite of all of this. The chances are slim for a diplomatic offramp but nonetheless the most strained controversial peace deal is still ultimately better than the price that will be paid in this conflict. I am hoping the world has learned this price through what has happened in Ukraine but I am worried that it's lessons have also been buried by hate and anger.

Its othering, mostly Islam is the worst about being religiously othering, but the problem isn't really religion. It's othering and tribalism, which religion often encourages, but people other all the time *cough* America *cough*

 

[Cilvilt_beredskap]

Still says 5 for me btw.
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