May/2025 | India-Pakistan | Escalating Crisis DEFCON 4 | Discussions

[NuclearID]

Pakistan lit the match, escalated the conflict, launched the first attack on 26 tourists, and now that the fire’s turned into an inferno, they’re crying to the world for a ceasefire like cowards who can’t handle the blowback. Typical.

They unleashed chaos, couldn’t land a meaningful hit, and now they’re running to every embassy like a kid caught red handed begging not to be punished.

You don’t get to play the victim when you start the war. You don’t get sympathy when your hands are still warm from innocent tourist blood.

Pakistan gambled, got utterly wrecked, embarrassed, and now wants a timeout. What a pathetic display from the nation that shelters, funds, and participates in terrorist activities, now begging for mercy when they finally face a real military.

Terrorist state behavior, plain and simple. Here is a friendly reminder of Pakistan "government" leading funerals for top *U.N DESIGNATED* terrorist leaders:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1921084598085169516

https://twitter.com/x/status/1920129724564623518

 

[Erecon]

The French made Rafale was tested in real combat against the Chinese made J10 and while Pakistan managed to shoot just one down, that’s where Pakistans success ended.

So a J10 shot down a Rafale?

 

[NuclearID]

So a J10 shot down a Rafale?

Just one. In 6 days of heavy fighting and exchanges.

 

[NuclearID]

So a J10 shot down a Rafale?

Also the French plane was shot down inside India. Which may raise questions of friendly fire. May not even of been Pakistan. In 2016/19 a similar thing occurred where India had a friendly fire accident shooting its own out of the sky. Will likly never know or for a long time.

Also out of 6 days of fighting Pakistan was only able to (possibly) manage to shootdown only 1 aircraft and not land a single hit within India? Yea... Not looking good for Pakistan.

 

[NuclearID]

Related Thread:

Post in thread 'India🇮🇳 Changed the Rules: No More Immunity for State-Sponsored Terrorism Behind a Nuclear☢️ Shield'

May 13, 2025

Pakistan’s recent behavior should serve as the ultimate warning against ever allowing Iran to obtain nuclear weapons or even nuclear energy. What we’re witnessing now is exactly what happens when a rogue state hides behind nuclear blackmail to shield its state sponsored terrorism.

The door for Iran must remain permanently shut. No enrichment, no reactors, no leverage. Nuclear protection for terrorism cannot become a global precedent or trend.

North Korea and Pakistan have already proven how dangerous and destabilizing this model is. We don’t need a third regime using nuclear...

• NuclearID

• 

Want to hear everyone's thoughts.

 

[PeacePlease]

Beijing could benefit if #India-#Pakistan tensions escalate, draining #India’s military resources and weakening its leverage on the #LAC.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1922371265639391247

So is anyone else getting the feeling that China wants this conflict to kick off(again) and use Pakistan as cannon fodder? Keep India distracted from the South East Asian alliance the U.S. has been trying to form against China.

 

[NuclearID]

So is anyone else getting the feeling that China wants this conflict to kick off(again) and use Pakistan as cannon fodder? Keep India distracted from the South East Asian alliance the U.S. has been trying to form against China.

Problem is I don't think India playing games this time though... to put it bluntly.

 

[PeacePlease]

Problem is I don't think India playing games this time though... to put it bluntly.

What do you think happens in regards to the "ceasefire" agreement. Do they just resume where they left off from a week ago? Operation Sindoor technically never concluded. Just kinda strange.

 

[Spyglass]

What do you think happens in regards to the "ceasefire" agreement. Do they just resume where they left off from a week ago? Operation Sindoor technically never concluded. Just kinda strange.

This may have just been a moment negotiated for both sides to exhale and manage the escalation ladder more conservatively. Things were getting freaky initially, so perhaps this is just a “Ok everyone take a deep breath.”

 

[Publius]

Donald Trump said US trade was incentive for ceasefire. But is it that important to India or Pakistan?
View attachment 7361View attachment 7362

https://twitter.com/x/status/1923479512496378238

I believe the intention here was that the US is the largest importer of goods from both India and Pakistan.

India's Top Trading Partners 2023

India's top 25 trading partners in 2023 key statistics highlights most valuable countries

www.worldstopexports.com

Pakistan’s Top Trading Partners 2023

Pakistan’s main trading partners buying Pakistani exports for 2023 plus trade deficits & surpluses by major country customers

www.worldstopexports.com

 

[Sidney Reilly]

Currently, there is no global war over water (maybe India and Pakistan is on the brink), but there are concerns that increasing water shortages could lead to more conflicts between countries and communities in the future. Water scarcity is driven by natural shortages in dry areas, pollution, climate change, growing populations, and lack of infrastructure. When water becomes limited, it often leads to disputes over shared resources, affecting livelihoods and causing social unrest.

I believe that as water shortages worsen, conflicts could intensify, sometimes fueling violence or political disputes. In the future, experts believe that water shortages could lead to more fights between regions or countries, making existing tensions worse. While these might not be full-scale wars, conflicts over water could cause violence or disagreements, especially when combined with other political or economic problems. To prevent this, it’s important to manage water sustainably, invest in new technologies, conserve resources, and promote cooperation between nations. While a full-scale water war isn’t imminent (maybe), addressing these challenges is crucial to avoid future conflicts driven by water scarcity.

Examples of water conflicts:

• Countries along the Nile River (like Egypt and Ethiopia) have disagreements over water rights.
• Turkey’s dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers cause tension with Syria and Iraq.
• Israel, Jordan, and Palestine share water in a sensitive region.
• Countries in Southeast Asia argue over how dams on the Mekong River affect downstream nations.
• India and Pakistan have long-standing disagreements over the Indus River. Now India has cut off Pakistan's supply.
• Afghanistan and Iran dispute over the Helmand River.
• China’s dam projects on the Brahmaputra worry India about water flow.

 

[PeacePlease]

India hasn't technically cut off the supply but in the short term they can open the flood gates and flood Pakistan agriculture lands that rely on timing.

Currently, there is no global war over water (maybe India and Pakistan is on the brink), but there are concerns that increasing water shortages could lead to more conflicts between countries and communities in the future. Water scarcity is driven by natural shortages in dry areas, pollution, climate change, growing populations, and lack of infrastructure. When water becomes limited, it often leads to disputes over shared resources, affecting livelihoods and causing social unrest.

I believe that as water shortages worsen, conflicts could intensify, sometimes fueling violence or political disputes. In the future, experts believe that water shortages could lead to more fights between regions or countries, making existing tensions worse. While these might not be full-scale wars, conflicts over water could cause violence or disagreements, especially when combined with other political or economic problems. To prevent this, it’s important to manage water sustainably, invest in new technologies, conserve resources, and promote cooperation between nations. While a full-scale water war isn’t imminent (maybe), addressing these challenges is crucial to avoid future conflicts driven by water scarcity.

Examples of water conflicts:

• Countries along the Nile River (like Egypt and Ethiopia) have disagreements over water rights.
• Turkey’s dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers cause tension with Syria and Iraq.
• Israel, Jordan, and Palestine share water in a sensitive region.
• Countries in Southeast Asia argue over how dams on the Mekong River affect downstream nations.
• India and Pakistan have long-standing disagreements over the Indus River. Now India has cut off Pakistan's supply.
• Afghanistan and Iran dispute over the Helmand River.
• China’s dam projects on the Brahmaputra worry India about water flow.

 

[Spyglass]

Currently, there is no global war over water (maybe India and Pakistan is on the brink), but there are concerns that increasing water shortages could lead to more conflicts between countries and communities in the future. Water scarcity is driven by natural shortages in dry areas, pollution, climate change, growing populations, and lack of infrastructure. When water becomes limited, it often leads to disputes over shared resources, affecting livelihoods and causing social unrest.

I believe that as water shortages worsen, conflicts could intensify, sometimes fueling violence or political disputes. In the future, experts believe that water shortages could lead to more fights between regions or countries, making existing tensions worse. While these might not be full-scale wars, conflicts over water could cause violence or disagreements, especially when combined with other political or economic problems. To prevent this, it’s important to manage water sustainably, invest in new technologies, conserve resources, and promote cooperation between nations. While a full-scale water war isn’t imminent (maybe), addressing these challenges is crucial to avoid future conflicts driven by water scarcity.

Examples of water conflicts:

• Countries along the Nile River (like Egypt and Ethiopia) have disagreements over water rights.
• Turkey’s dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers cause tension with Syria and Iraq.
• Israel, Jordan, and Palestine share water in a sensitive region.
• Countries in Southeast Asia argue over how dams on the Mekong River affect downstream nations.
• India and Pakistan have long-standing disagreements over the Indus River. Now India has cut off Pakistan's supply.
• Afghanistan and Iran dispute over the Helmand River.
• China’s dam projects on the Brahmaputra worry India about water flow.

Family member once ran into a guy at one of the clubs he worked at. They talked for a few, he revealed he worked for special forces. He told my family member that the next *big* war would be over water. Not the small ones. This was 15 years ago.

 

[Publius]

Some argued that the reason for Qaddafi’s ouster was over the Namibian aquifer and Qaddafi’s ambitions plan to create the great man made river.
The Namibian aquifer is reported to be the world’s oldest and largest ancient underground aquifers on the planet.

So there is that….
Although to be honest likely not the only reason.

Water as a weapon: Qaddafi's last desperate gamble

There is a long history of conflicts over water. A chronology with hundreds of examples of violence over access to freshwater resources is available (for readers interested in history) here. The first known water war was nearly 5,000 years ago: a conflict over irrigation ditches between the...

www.forbes.com

 

[NuclearID]

Lolol

https://twitter.com/x/status/1923964888029790226

 

[Sentry]

My goodness, shouldn't you be eating dinner about now?! lol

Was eating while posting that actually.. haha

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Was eating while posting that actually.. haha

Cool. You were earring Dinner? What'd you have? I'm hungry. lol

 

[Sentry]

Cool. You were earring Dinner? What'd you have? I'm hungry. lol

Made myself some baked chicken breast. Cooked in my personal blend of spices naturally Then tried to make some peanut butter. Still trying to master that recipe

 

[Publius]

I’m not sure how convincingly Pakistan can blame India for the BLA and balochistan separatist movement.

The Balochistan separatists movement is loosely affiliated with the Kurdish separatist movements.
They’re Moslem, but they support a secular gov. They have ties with just about anyone who will aid in their movement. Given the deteriorated relationship between Pakistan and the US I would not be surprised if they’re getting some help from the US via the Kurds.

BLA and TTP are Indian proxies, govt will prove India’s involvement in Khuzdar bus attack: Asif

Dar says China, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed their soil won't be used for cross-border terrorism; Indian High Commission member asked to leave Islamabad in tit-for-tat move.

www.dawn.com

 

[Sentry]

I’m not sure how convincingly Pakistan can blame India for the BLA and balochistan separatist movement.

The Balochistan separatists movement is loosely affiliated with the Kurdish separatist movements.
They’re Moslem, but they support a secular gov. They have ties with just about anyone who will aid in their movement. Given the deteriorated relationship between Pakistan and the US I would not be surprised if they’re getting some help from the US via the Kurds.

BLA and TTP are Indian proxies, govt will prove India’s involvement in Khuzdar bus attack: Asif

Dar says China, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed their soil won't be used for cross-border terrorism; Indian High Commission member asked to leave Islamabad in tit-for-tat move.

www.dawn.com

Pakistan blames India directly for the other attacks too, they might just be doing it more directly right now because it’s after the whole conflict, and the precedent has been set. The point is, what will they target?
India can strike at sites in Pakistan where terrorists are being trained with plausible deniability, but Pakistan can’t do the same by attacking a place of worship or a random building. No BLA are being trained in India. If Pakistan had to attack somewhere, it would be Afghanistan or Iran.