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Middle East | DISCUSSIONS | Oct' 24 - June' 25

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GBS61 said:
Explain to me why Israel had the right to possess nuclear weapons without them signing anything, and in secret, no less. Let's just say Pandora's box has been open for a long time. Israel has no more right to possess nuclear weapons than Iran does.
I think I'm going to get a lot of dislike.

Note: I'm not a supporter of Iran, nor of Israel, nor of all those barbaric Middle Eastern countries.
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I think Israel got the nukes before they had to sign anything.
 
OReid said:
So they have dozens if not hundreds of them. They remove 1/2 or 3/4 of existing centrifuges. Hand over most of their refined stockpiles. That is a physical scaling back of capabilities.

All that said will the IRG and ayatollahs totally denuclearize I don’t think so. And I don’t think they will agree to sufficient IAEI inspections to ensure they have actually scaled back.

So we will see what Trump will do
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DarkNoon said:
Their centrifuge program is definitely without a doubt not on the negotiating table. They have made it pretty darn clear through this whole speel with US talks.
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Given everything Iran has said over the past two months, it’s clearer then crystal they are not, have never been, and never will be willing to put their centrifuge program or enrichment work on the negotiating table. They've said it so many times I've lost count.

And while I get the rule “never trust what a terrorist says,” if there’s ever been a moment to take them at their word, it’s this: they’ve been blunt, centrifuge work is nonnegotiable.

ANY deal going forward will mean Trump capitulated and is going to alow Iran to have a nuclear bomb like the first deal. Again it's all stall tactics. Only going down one of two ways. Iran gets a bomb or we blow it up before that happens. No other choices given the lines drawn in the sand on both sides.
 
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Erecon said:
I think Israel got the nukes before they had to sign anything.
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What exactly has China signed? It’s not like there is a firearms permit for nations.

All that said as I’ve said before non-proliferation is out of the bag.
I think Ukraine South Korea Japan Australia Taiwan and recently added Poland to my list of future nuclear team members states.
The world let Pakistan and DPRK develop nukes so why not the rest of the wanna-be’s and ought-to’s

Heck who knows I can’t wait to endure Iran periodically demanding aid bribes or closer of the Straits of Hormuz with threats of a timely air burst.
 
Erecon said:
I think Israel got the nukes before they had to sign anything.
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Also, let’s not forget Israel got its uranium by stealing it from US. Long story short... decades ago, they had a friendly operative inside a U.S. nuclear facility. Enriched uranium was quietly diverted and shipped to Israel, forming the foundation of their initial nuclear weapons program built with stolen American material.
 
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Explain to me why Israel doesn't declare that it has nuclear weapons, when we know that nuclear weapons are a deterrent.

N:B: In my opinion, the reason is that they don't have them.
 
DarkNoon said:
Also, let’s not forget Israel got its uranium by stealing it from US. Long story short... decades ago, they had a friendly operative inside a U.S. nuclear facility. Enriched uranium was quietly diverted and shipped to Israel, forming the foundation of their initial nuclear weapons program built with stolen American material.
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Read More About The True & Ironic History of Israel's Nuclear Program Here:

Thread 'The Declassified History of Israel's Nuclear Program'

The true story is both ironic and historically murky. Here’s a fact checked breakdown with key points on how Israel obtained nuclear weapons.

1️⃣The U.S. did not want Israel to go nuclear:
  • The sitting president at the time, John F. Kennedy, was firmly opposed to Israel developing nuclear weapons. He pressured Israeli leadership repeatedly, demanding inspections of the Dimona nuclear facility and guarantees that it was for peaceful purposes only.

2️⃣ Israel lied and stalled:
  • ...
  • NuclearID
  • Wow
 
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Erecon said:
I think China got nukes as well before any treatys about nukes had to be signed.
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They are not signatories to any of the warhead and missile delivery system treaties the US and Russia are.
 
OReid said:
They are not signatories to any of the warhead and missile delivery system treaties the US and Russia are.
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NPT - Non Proliferation Treaty 1968 : Treaty was an agreement signed in 1968 by several of the major nuclear and non-nuclear powers that pledged their cooperation in stemming the spread of nuclear technology. ( although reading more on it, France and China did not sign it )
 
Out of curiosity how does an F-15 stack up against an F-14? I think the problem with Iran is not just the aging F-14 fleet but pilots who are probably not up to scratch which would probably not make them much of a risk.
 
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Dr Arthur said:
Out of curiosity how does an F-15 stack up against and F-14? I think the problem with Iran is not just the aging F-14 fleet but pilots who are probably not up to scratch which would probably not make them much of a risk.
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There probably for the ferry part of the flight from DG. New and more capable planes can pick them up when they approach the coast. I’m just guessing though
 
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Only four ways this ends:

  1. Iran stalls long enough to fool Trump and build a bomb...
  2. Trump completely caves, giving Iran a deal similar to last time, just to save face. His base will believe whatever he spins it as. So entirly possible Trump caves...
  3. The U.S. strikes first, taking out the facilities before it’s too late...
  4. Israel acts alone, hits Iran’s nuclear sites, and pulls the U.S. into the fight whether we like it or not something even Israeli officials and other countries have openly warned could happen...
Anything outside of these four is wishful thinking imho. The lines are already drawn. There’s simply no other realistic outcomes from here.

I think my point 2 (Trump caving) or point 4 (Israel going in alone) is most likly outcomes. Again imho. Perhaps both could happen. Trump caves and Israel goes in alone. Dragging our assess in anyways.
 
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DarkNoon said:
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Only four ways this ends:

  1. Iran stalls long enough to fool Trump and build a bomb...
  2. Trump completely caves, giving Iran a deal similar to last time, just to save face. His base will believe whatever he spins it as. So entirly possible Trump caves...
  3. The U.S. strikes first, taking out the facilities before it’s too late...
  4. Israel acts alone, hits Iran’s nuclear sites, and pulls the U.S. into the fight whether we like it or not something even Israeli officials and other countries have openly warned could happen...
Anything outside of these four is wishful thinking imho. The lines are already drawn. There’s simply no other realistic outcomes from here.

I think my point 2 (Trump caving) or point 4 (Israel going in alone) is most likly outcomes. Again imho. Perhaps both could happen. Trump caves and Israel goes in alone. Dragging our assess in anyways.
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I choose option 2. To date, Trump is doing no better than Biden internationally; a lot of blah, blah, blah... from Trump.

Let me add a point 5:
Israel is going it alone, but Iran is retaliating harshly against Israel. The USA and Russia are getting involved by proxy. This has been seen elsewhere in history (Vietnam).
 
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