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Taiwan🇹🇼 Tensions | US - Japan - China - Australia

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Japan MOD Joint Staff says the JMSDF confirmed a Russian Navy Vishnya-class intelligence collection ship near Yonaguni, then tracked it transiting waters including contiguous zones around Yonaguni and Miyako before heading toward the Pacific. JMSDF assets included destroyer Ikazuchi plus P-1 and P-3C patrol aircraft.

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Japan MOD Joint Staff: ASDF conducted 448 scrambles in 2025 through Apr 1 to Dec 31. Assessed origin share says 68% Chinese aircraft, 29% Russian, and 3% other.

Japan's Joint Staff highlights included PRC carrier aviation activity in the Pacific recording 260 takeoffs/landings and a Dec 6 incident in which a PLA Navy J-15 intermittently illuminated a JASDF F-15 with radar during intercept measures.

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Nikkei Asia reports Chinese special forces ran a Venezuela-style “decapitation” drill, framed as a rapid raid to neutralize or capture Taiwan’s leadership. The report points to PRC state TV footage of a “target person” night assault sequence later amplified by PRC media with explicit Taiwan leadership messaging.

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The US Navy’s newest “lightning carrier” concept has moved from experiment to front-line reality, cruising into waters that Beijing increasingly treats as its own preserve. By pushing a big-deck amphibious ship packed with F-35B jets toward China’s maritime doorstep, Washington is signaling that it intends to complicate any attempt at regional dominance and keep high-end airpower on call in contested seas.
 
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Taiwan's government has unveiled a detailed list of the weapons systems it intends to buy with a proposed NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.6 billion) special defense budget in response to opposition lawmakers, who have blocked the plan because of its lack of transparency.

Most of the weapons systems on the list had already been approved for sale to Taiwan by the United States or been mentioned by Taiwan as items of interest, but they had not been compiled on a list with specific quantities before Monday.

The military said on Jan. 15 that about NT$950 billion, or 76 percent, of the eight-year NT$1.25 trillion special budget so named because it is in addition to the general budget that also includes weapons outlays, will be spent on U.S. weapons systems.

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The JMSDF will conduct a bilateral exercise with the U.S. Navy (USN) as described below in order to strengthen the capability of Japan & U.S. Alliance for effective deterrence and response.

Objectives:
(1) To improve the JMSDF’s tactical capabilities.
(2) To improve interoperability with the USN.

Period:
February 1-10-2026.

Exercise Area:
(1) Ise Bay.

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The Royal Navy has nine nuclear-powered submarines. Four of them are the Vanguard class, tasked with providing the nation’s strategic deterrent and armed with Trident nuclear ballistic missiles for this purpose. They are entirely taken up by that task.

The other five subs are the Astute class, conventionally armed, nuclear-powered attack boats: the only other submarines that we have. Attack submarines like this are an absolutely vital part of our continuous, silent struggle alongside the US in the waters of the North Atlantic. In this struggle we seek to monitor Russian ships and subs, keeping our own deterrent boats undetected and perhaps theirs under surveillance – and also monitor their efforts against critical British, European and trans-Atlantic undersea cables and pipelines.

Just one of the Astute boats, HMS Anson, is believed to be fit for sea at the moment Often enough in the past couple of years there has not been a single British attack boat at sea for quite long periods.
“Atlantic Bastion” is the name given to the Royal Navy’s plan to cohere underwater operations across all domains in the Greenland, Iceland, UK gap and beyond. Russian submarines are increasingly deploying through this gap and getting up to no good around our Critical Underwater Infrastructure.
Much hinges on the availability of the rest of the Astute fleet. HMS Artful may return to sea soon, with others potentially following after prolonged refits, but timelines are not clear. The chronic delays stem from historic under-investment in shore infrastructure and maintenance pipelines.
 
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Taiwan looks forward to even more semiconductor investment in Arizona to bolster ties with the United States, President Lai Ching-te told a visiting senator from the state on Friday.

U.S. President ‌Donald Trump has pushed the major producer of semiconductors, which runs a large trade surplus with the United States, to invest more in the U.S., specifically in chips that power AI.

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In total, Xi has now removed all but one of the six generals he appointed to the Central Military Commission in 2022. In addition, 29 of the 44 uniformed officers appointed in 2022 to the Communist Party’s Central Committee (the largest of its top decision-making bodies) have been purged or are missing, according to an analysis published by the Asia Society (source).

"It does seem that in public no one is able to challenge Xi or provide any other perspectives," says Ian Chong, a China expert and professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. "There could also be the possibility that Xi is constantly suspicious of those around him. That has some parallels with Mao, especially in his later years."

Source
 
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Japan PM Sanae Takaichi said on national TV the Japan & U.S. alliance would “collapse” if Tokyo did nothing in a Taiwan contingency while U.S. forces acting jointly with Japan came under attack. She framed Japan’s likely actions as evacuations and responses strictly within existing law, not Japan initiating military action.

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I don't see how that would confuse anti-missile guns.
That going to require more maths for the CIWS’s, especially as long as they remain ballistic.

How much will it help? Well if it is already down to the CIWS you are getting hurt, possibly badly. At this point in time you are trying to avoid fatal damage. Thats why this missiles extreme terminal maneuvering was created. If it takes one extra round, just one, the distances covered and the damage zones are, afaik, considerable.

IMO, by the time these get fielded, most tier 1 opponents will have DE as the main or secondary defense system.

Once that happens the missile with ablative skin coating that rolls (nothing new) and “Yanks and banks” like this one, which eliminating or reduces dwell time will increase it’s survival time. This is bad if you have won the toss.
 
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