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Last number I saw was 118 total airlifts since this whole mess really began, with the protestors etc.
It’s more by now that was yesterday.
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US - Iran - Israel | Hostilities May Breakout Shortly | Feb. 2nd-28th | Discussions
- Thread starter DEFCON Warning System
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It’s more by now that was yesterday.
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- Jan 23, 2020
The cold calculus/wargaming implied here is spine tingling.
What a perfect analogy. It’s poetic.
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- Mar 3, 2021
IMO, I don't think you'll see hostilities start until you see at least three carrier strike groups operating in the region. If they are going for regime change, that will be the tell.
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Possibly. One Ohio-Class SSGN can carry 150 Tomahawk missiles. Other subs carry them as well, and we have no idea how many are in the area.
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I’ll go back to my rabid opossum analogy. When killing the opossum might possibly create a chain of events that wil cause a great deal pain and suffering for other animals in the area. One will thing long and hard about simply killing the opossum.
So the alternative is what we have done more or less the past few years. Containment.
Hoping the opossum simply dies from the rabies.
Eventually we might have to kill the opossum.
There is no question the US could crush the Iranian govt and military/
But it’s important to consider one of the precepts of philosophy. When confronted with a situation arises that you must do something to remedy or confront a problem. But every choice risk doing harm to to others. The only rational choice is to do the thing that will do the least harm.
I believe that the air strikes have been a least harm. choice. At some point we very well might have to do something more involved. What that might be i honestly don’t know. Do we limit our military response to simply punishing the regime. Or should it be elevated to a regimen type of change engagement. Is there a viable domestic movement in Iran that is strong and widespread enough to form a gov. without a civil war.
These aren’t easy decisions to make.
So the alternative is what we have done more or less the past few years. Containment.
Hoping the opossum simply dies from the rabies.
Eventually we might have to kill the opossum.
There is no question the US could crush the Iranian govt and military/
But it’s important to consider one of the precepts of philosophy. When confronted with a situation arises that you must do something to remedy or confront a problem. But every choice risk doing harm to to others. The only rational choice is to do the thing that will do the least harm.
I believe that the air strikes have been a least harm. choice. At some point we very well might have to do something more involved. What that might be i honestly don’t know. Do we limit our military response to simply punishing the regime. Or should it be elevated to a regimen type of change engagement. Is there a viable domestic movement in Iran that is strong and widespread enough to form a gov. without a civil war.
These aren’t easy decisions to make.
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Well ill got a bad feeling that Iran will strike first on Israel before they lose there upertunity whit there missiles, the IRGC always say too wipe Israel off the map.
Hope it will not happen but a deal whit the IRGC and the V.S-Israel ? hell no the IRGC will never agree whit the terms.
This is not Irak where going drop bombs, if the V.S attack the whole region goes up in war and don't rule out Nuclear.
There is/was existing munitions, ammo depots, and land based strike aircraft already operating across the Middle East before the crisis even became a thing. The region was already saturated with enough capability for a sustained strike campaign against Iran without needing the carriers or subs.
The carrier group and additional submarines are the redundancy layer, not the foundation.
The logistics footprint too as we’ve watched well over 100 cargo sorties coming out of Europe over the past month or so, pushing unknown loads into theater, which usually signals serious stockpiling and operational preparation on land.
I told @Sentry privately at the start of this crisis that the U.S. already had enough capability in theater to level Iran from day one. Everything that followed is additional redundancy and failsafe planning. If that looks like over planning, GOOD. In this business, there is no such thing as too prepared.
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We might be expecting some other party guests, by the looks of it. There are still loose ends in other areas too…
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This is highly implausible. Russia - with its much larger industrial base and wartime economy - builds around 100 ballistic missiles a month (going by consumption rates). I believe Israel may be intentionally exaggerating because Netanyahu dearly wants a US/Iran war to happen. It wouldn't be the first time they staged a PR campaign for an audience of one.
Citing two Israeli sources, reports Israel is warning that Iran could rebuild to 1,800 to 2,000 ballistic missiles within weeks or months as Netanyahu heads to Washington for talks with Trump.
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Yeah idk if this meant drones or missiles. Drones would be plausible.
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Yes, that would make sense, but the report quoted by @NuclearID clearly mentions "ballistic missiles".
I guess another possible explanation is if they factor in crude unguided missiles of the "metal pipe with winglets" variety - you know, those that travel 30 miles and explode in a field somewhere. Then the figure would make more sense - but those missiles are essentially worthless from a military PoV. The closest distance between any two points in Iran and Israel respectively is still over 500 miles.
My personal take. They're including missiles that aren't truly long range ballistic or if they are ballistic, very crude and inaccurate.
Which would match up with what we saw during the 12-day war. The ballistic missiles Iran launched were ANYTHING BUT accurate as even the few that did land in Israel clearly didn't have a set target. More of launch in the right direction and pray they hit something in Israel, sorta dealio.
KINDA how every country now claims their ICBM's are "hypersonic" when they really are not. Sure they have hypersonic speed, but to be a modern "hypersonic" missile it must be able to change its trajectory or target mid-course which isn't the case for most quote "hypersonic" missiles countries keep claiming to have or make.
So I would assume the claim that Iran has about 2,000 ballistic missiles would be in same category. Sure they may travel at ballistic speeds, but they have no accuracy and likely flying trash cans (going very fast) with a bomb in it.
Really I think the biggest risk here is Iran hitting something they didn't mean to or shouldn't have.
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I’m gonna thro in here folks,
The WH leadership seems to take notes from the Rusian patterns, ponder this for a momment, I think i see a pattern,
The last Winter Olympics occurred from February 4 to 20, 2022, in Beijing, China. This event directly coincided with rising tensions, as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine just days after the closing ceremony, following a pattern seen in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea immediately after the Sochi Winter Games.
Key Connections to Russia's Actions:
Food for thought?
The WH leadership seems to take notes from the Rusian patterns, ponder this for a momment, I think i see a pattern,
The last Winter Olympics occurred from February 4 to 20, 2022, in Beijing, China. This event directly coincided with rising tensions, as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine just days after the closing ceremony, following a pattern seen in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea immediately after the Sochi Winter Games.
Key Connections to Russia's Actions:
- 2022 Invasion Timing: The 2022 Winter Olympics ended on February 20. Russian forces launched their full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, shortly after the Games concluded.
- 2014 Precedent: A similar pattern occurred in 2014, where Russia invaded and annexed Crimea just four days after the Sochi Winter Olympics concluded, which were also held during the Maidan protests in Ukraine.
- Geopolitical Strategy: Experts noted that Russia used the "Olympic Truce" period to move troops and utilized the international distraction of the Olympics to cover their aggressive maneuvers in both 2014 and 2022
Food for thought?
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Good catch. It's interesting, for certain, but I'm not quite ready to call it a trend. Still a heightened level of monitoring the week after the Olympics is probably wise.
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30 days give the U S plenty of time for additional carrier group (s) and everything else to be ready.
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- Sep 6, 2022
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You men the ones for Hezbollah
Been on such a high operating tempo been stepping back reporting to two blocks a day. Once in the morning and once at night to recuperate and prevent burnout so when the ball drops I am sharp n' ready.
I'd suggest others to start implementing burnout measures. You can keep a higher alert without burning out or becoming numb. Some simple but most effect steps is just putting the phone down or turning the computer/TV off. Even if you have to force yourself overtime you will learn to enjoy the quite downtime and learn to recharge in a healthy way. As the stuff we monitoring, report, and discuss can take a heavy toll, even more so during a crisis such as this that is protracted.
With that said. I'm not going anywhere. Still will report, just twice a day, instead of all day 24/7. One must have too to stay sane after a month of "high operational awareness."
Also it is handy to have like 8 different people in different time zones who have your phone number to call you in the event of anything big. That does help one relax and take the hand off the steering wheel at times, but not everyone may have that option.
I'd suggest others to start implementing burnout measures. You can keep a higher alert without burning out or becoming numb. Some simple but most effect steps is just putting the phone down or turning the computer/TV off. Even if you have to force yourself overtime you will learn to enjoy the quite downtime and learn to recharge in a healthy way. As the stuff we monitoring, report, and discuss can take a heavy toll, even more so during a crisis such as this that is protracted.
With that said. I'm not going anywhere. Still will report, just twice a day, instead of all day 24/7. One must have too to stay sane after a month of "high operational awareness."
Also it is handy to have like 8 different people in different time zones who have your phone number to call you in the event of anything big. That does help one relax and take the hand off the steering wheel at times, but not everyone may have that option.
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I do this all the time. People think I was kidding when I said I was stopping to play video games? It helps to step away. Can't do this 24/7.
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Splitting and stacking firewood helps, lots!!!
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