US - Iran - Israel | Hostilities May Breakout Shortly | Feb. 2nd-28th | Discussions

[Publius]

That’s no Lie, there is 6 or7 us mil transports over Eastern Europe all going or coming from eastern med where the drop off exact location tracking.
I’ve also noted that tonight is the third night in a row for one or two B-52’s are flying sorties out of Shreveport.

 

[Spyglass]

row for one or two B-52’s are flying sorties out of Shreveport.

We’ve built up more hardware over there than we did before Shock and Awe. B-52’s will be providing heavy bombing once air defenses are cleared.

 

[Torch]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2024588394211233919

Thats sad.

It means there are probably two less targets for US to service. Air to air kills are precious.

 

[Spyglass]

Thats sad.

It means there are probably two less targets for US to service. Air to air kills are precious.

Think a few Aces will be born this weekend?

 

[Lostpuppy]

Remember back to Desert Storm series, where did all the Iraqi airforce jets bug out too? Kinda thinkin, something similar?

 

[NuclearID]

Think a few Aces will be born this weekend?

That infers there's something to shoot down. If I recall last time the non-existing Iranian Air Force didn't participate in the 12-day war. Not sure why a non-existing Air Force would participate now. Not being facetious really. But Iran doesn't have a air force to speak of. Not with piloted wings anyways.

Unless your counting shooting down Toys R' Us drones as a shoot down. I suppose it does...

Funny a country that doesn't even have a manned Air Force to speak of thinks it can sink a aircraft carrier. Hell they can't even defend their airspace for less than a hour. Smh.

 

[teekay99]

Funny a country that doesn't even have a manned Air Force to speak of thinks it can sink a aircraft carrier. Hell they can't even defend their airspace for less than a hour. Smh.

Iran may think they can sink a carrier because they think they may have a weapon that can do it. Either a misguided belief in the capability of the weapons they have, or, they have a rudimentary nuke they can launch.....

Or it's just propaganda to make themselves feel better....

 

[NuclearID]

Well, I hate to say it (not really), but time and again, when two-bit autocratic regimes finally show their cards, we end up feeling silly for ever thinking they were as capable as they claimed. Or where ever in the game to begin with.

Recall before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? A lot of people treated them like the big bad wolf. Instead, we’ve watched a hollowed out force show up, and it’s raised real questions about maintenance, readiness, and what “on paper” capability actually means. Yes, Russia has working nuclear weapons, but “how many are reliable and ready” is a question people ask out loud now.

Same vibe with Iran. Before we and Israel hit Iran first time, plenty of folks wildly overestimated them, and it feels like people still haven’t learned the lesson, don’t take two-bit regimes at face value. History keeps showing it’s often bluff, and when the moment arrives, the hand is emptier than advertised, or it was never a real hand to begin with.

 

[NuclearID]

History keeps showing it’s often bluff, and when the moment arrives, the hand is emptier than advertised, or it was never a real hand to begin with.

Often an autocratic regime’s strongest weapon isn’t what it can do, it’s what it can convince others it can do. Their power is narrative, the ability to sell a myth, project strength, and keep outsiders acting as if the bluff is real.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Recall before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? A lot of people treated them like the big bad wolf. Instead, we’ve watched a hollowed out force show up, and it’s raised real questions about maintenance, readiness, and what “on paper” capability actually means. Yes, Russia has working nuclear weapons, but “how many are reliable and ready” is a question people ask out loud now.

Don't let's forget the US attack on Venezuela. Russian and Chinese defence systems crumbled.

 

[Irag8er]

Don't let's forget the US attack on Venezuela. Russian and Chinese defence systems crumbled.

Correction:
They were discombobulated !

 

[Sidney Reilly]

Don't let's forget the US attack on Venezuela. Russian and Chinese defence systems crumbled.

Boxers, wrestlers, and martial arts fighters frequently project weakness when they are actually strong or in control. This tactic is rooted in the principle of deception, often summarized by Sun Tzu's The Art of War: "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak". In combat sports, this strategy is used to lure opponents into overcommitting, lowering their guard, or becoming complacent, only to be caught by a counter-attack.

 

[teekay99]

Boxers, wrestlers, and martial arts fighters frequently project weakness when they are actually strong or in control. This tactic is rooted in the principle of deception, often summarized by Sun Tzu's The Art of War: "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak". In combat sports, this strategy is used to lure opponents into overcommitting, lowering their guard, or becoming complacent, only to be caught by a counter-attack.

It's a fair point but couldn't one argue that this strategy failed in Venezuela since ultimately the country's leader was taken ? I would call any strategy that results in the head of state being taken as a major fail. Unless that's part of China's and Russia's smokescreen around the capability of their defense systems....

 

[Sidney Reilly]

Yes, you are correct also.

 

[RiffRaff]

It seems if there’s one thing the Russians are consistently not afraid of, it’s being giant hypocrites.

There's a lot of that going around lately.

 

[william]

I say this on the bird, and I wouldn't put it past the Iranian Regime to do it. IMO

When the US attacks, the regime is going to launch missiles and drones on their own country. They then intend to broadcast the bodies of the dead to blame the US for their deaths in order to shape global public opinion

https://twitter.com/x/status/2024612882852303161

 

[RiffRaff]

This is interesting… Suni and Shia mending fences?

https://twitter.com/x/status/2024667837755797787

Iran and Egypt agree to restore full diplomatic ties and reopen embassies in both capitals

Islamic factions have historically united to defeat a common enemy.

 

[Araxen]

Don't let's forget the US attack on Venezuela. Russian and Chinese defence systems crumbled.

I do think using revealing that information to the enemy(which it did) on Venezuela of all places was a bad move. You need to let the enemy think there defense equipment can work against us in some capacity. Now they'll rethink things.

 

[Spyglass]

Islamic factions have historically united to defeat a common enemy.

If Egypt gets formally involved that adds another layer of complication.

It's beginning to look more and more like this will become a regional conflict overnight. You have a classic regional "Axis and Allies" style setup brewing. Strikes will not be limited to Iran, I fear.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Boxers, wrestlers, and martial arts fighters frequently project weakness when they are actually strong or in control. This tactic is rooted in the principle of deception, often summarized by Sun Tzu's The Art of War: "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak". In combat sports, this strategy is used to lure opponents into overcommitting, lowering their guard, or becoming complacent, only to be caught by a counter-attack.

Venezuela certainly did not have cutting edge technology. Whoever goes up against Russia and China directly will face more formidable systems.

That said, Ukraine is doing much better than anyone thought going against Russia.