Nuclear Proliferation

[NuclearID]

They would lose every ounce of support from the west if they did that. Now when the war is over….

Indeed. Ukraine testing a nuke would be one way to stop all support from the West quite literally overnight. Would go against the almost religious policy of the West of nuclear proliferation which Western allies don't get a pass on that either.

Also for these reasons if Japan ever created or tested a nuke. They better get ready for serious diplomatic and economic blowback even from their allies in the West. The West will punish allies for developing nuclear weapons if not just so they don't look hypocritical.

 

[Snowfall]

Indeed. Ukraine testing a nuke would be one way to stop all support from the West quite literally overnight. Would go against the almost religious policy of the West of nuclear proliferation which Western allies don't get a pass on that either.

I know this is off topic, and potentially for another thread, but I often wonder the consequences of either Poland or South Korea developing nuclear weapons as I see those two as the most likely.

 

[Snowfall]

We often talk about the increasing chances of nuclear proliferation in response to the war in Ukraine, but I’m curious what everyone’s thoughts on the direct consequences of certain countries acquiring them. For example, how would NATO respond to Germany or Poland developing nuclear weapons.

 

[teekay99]

We often talk about the increasing chances of nuclear proliferation in response to the war in Ukraine, but I’m curious what everyone’s thoughts on the direct consequences of certain countries acquiring them. For example, how would NATO respond to Germany or Poland developing nuclear weapons.

I'm not really worried about Germany nor Japan developing nuclear weapons. Their cultures are different than in the early 1940s. Furthermore both have the technical know how and capability to do it. The fact that they haven't is probably more of a formality. (Ok treaties and constitutions may disallow it too ..)

Poland is a wild card to me. They've come across as quite hawkish against Russia and I wonder how much more so they would be if they had them. But this is still not a great fear of mine.

Here is a question to consider. How would Russia feel about Germany or Japan building nuclear weapons given their anti-Nazi rhetoric around Ukraine and their WW2 history with both?

 

[NuclearID]

We often talk about the increasing chances of nuclear proliferation in response to the war in Ukraine, but I’m curious what everyone’s thoughts on the direct consequences of certain countries acquiring them. For example, how would NATO respond to Germany or Poland developing nuclear weapons.

Want me to move our two posts earlier in Ukraine thread about this here?

 

[NuclearID]

Their cultures are different than in the early 1940s

You would be surprised how fast a nation can change it tune/attitude when facing a threat.

 

[Snowfall]

Want me to move our two posts earlier in Ukraine thread about this here?

Sure, thanks.

 

[NuclearID]

Poland is a wild card to me. They've come across as quite hawkish against Russia and I wonder how much more so they would be if they had them. But this is still not a great fear of mine.

Unless the US backtracks 80 years of nuclear proliferation policy, I don't see Poland going for it. At least not until Poland can make most its own military assets. Poland depends on other countries particularly the West a lot for its current arms build up. Building a nuke and Poland can kiss their plan to build up their military goodbye because not only would the US stop any arms sales most likely but Poland would become to radioactive for any country to sell arms to them.

 

[Snowfall]

I'm not really worried about Germany nor Japan developing nuclear weapons. Their cultures are different than in the early 1940s. Furthermore both have the technical know how and capability to do it. The fact that they haven't is probably more of a formality. (Ok treaties and constitutions may disallow it too ..)

Poland is a wild card to me. They've come across as quite hawkish against Russia and I wonder how much more so they would be if they had them. But this is still not a great fear of mine.

Here is a question to consider. How would Russia feel about Germany or Japan building nuclear weapons given their anti-Nazi rhetoric around Ukraine and their WW2 history with both?

I’ve always felt that with a hawkish enough president in Japan the chances of them building nukes could grow dramatically, especially as China continues to build up its nuclear arsenal.

I really don’t know what Russia would do to Germany, but I’m sure we’d at minimum see a sabotage campaign significantly larger than the one we see presently.

 

[NuclearID]

You would be surprised how fast a nation can change it tune/attitude when facing a threat.

Look no further than the two most recent additions to NATO.

 

[Snowfall]

Unless the US backtracks 80 years of nuclear proliferation policy, I don't see Poland going for it. At least not until Poland can make most its own military assets. Poland depends on other countries particularly the West a lot for its current arms build up. Building a nuke and Poland can kiss their plan to build up their military goodbye because not only would the US stop any arms sales most likely but Poland would become to radioactive for any country to sell arms to them.

You know with Biden I’d agree, but with Trump pushing for an independent Europe I don’t know. The rest of Europe I don’t think would like it, but I question whether the United States would actually say anything.

 

[teekay99]

You would be surprised how fast a nation can change it tune/attitude when facing a threat.

True but if they changed that much due to an existential threat, treaty provisions or constitutional limits would likely be secretly ignored. Both Germany and Japan can (as in capability) build nuclear weapons. The fact that some law disallows it can be worked around and both countries have historically shown an aptitude for evading laws...

 

[NuclearID]

You know with Biden I’d agree, but with Trump pushing for an independent Europe I don’t know. The rest of Europe I don’t think would like it, but I question whether the United States would actually say anything.

I just don't see the US or anyone else in the West (EU) giving up 80 years of enforcement of nuclear proliferation like it is religious scripture/policy.

And honestly I don't see why they would, even to let one of their friends like Poland or Japan to get one. Because if the West let's Poland or Japan have one, then Russia and China will arm their allies with nuclear weapons. I personally believe... or hope... no one wants that.

Simply comes down to, we let our allies build nukes, then China & Russia will definitely fast track their allies too. And again I would like to believe no one really wants that.

 

[teekay99]

I just don't see the US or anyone else in the West (EU) giving up 80 years of enforcement of nuclear proliferation like it is religious scripture/policy.

And honestly I don't see why they would, even to let one of their friends like Poland or Japan to get one. Because if the West let's Poland or Japan have one, then Russia and China will arm their allies with nuclear weapons. I personally believe... or hope... no one wants that.

What if they don't wait for US or NATO permission? They have the knowledge and the resources.

I'm not advocating for proliferation. All I am saying is that for some players I'm not all that worried.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

We often talk about the increasing chances of nuclear proliferation in response to the war in Ukraine, but I’m curious what everyone’s thoughts on the direct consequences of certain countries acquiring them. For example, how would NATO respond to Germany or Poland developing nuclear weapons.

Any time another country gets nuclear weapons is something of concern. While the governments are peaceful today, who knows what will happen down the road?

The fewer countries that have them, the less of a chance of some lunatic getting them.

Of course, the best scenario would be for no one to have them.

 

[NuclearID]

What if they don't wait for US or NATO permission? They have the knowledge and the resources.

The consequences. For the reasons I just gave above the Western world will do much to stop them because if they don't then their going to have a lot more unfriendly nations with nuclear weapons in the end because Russia and China will most likely fast track any allies that wishes to have nuclear weapons too.

So... depends on how much the people of said nations are willing to suffer economically and diplomatically on the world stage to build a nuclear weapon.

I just don't see the Polish or the Japanese people willing to suffer economically greatly to build a nuclear weapon.

 

[teekay99]

While the governments are peaceful today, who knows what will happen down the road?

This goes for each country that has nukes. Even the US.

Actually I do have two fears associated with proliferation:

• Accidents
• Mistakes

 

[NuclearID]

I just don't see the Polish or the Japanese people willing to suffer economically greatly to build a nuclear weapon.

Also import to note they are democracies so it's not like the government can just do it if the people don't want to or end up suffering for it, as the government will get voted out and one voted in that will end the program if it's something the people didn't "sign up" for.

So... Again, comes down to the will of the people and how much their willing to suffer for it.

 

[Snowfall]

The consequences. For the reasons I just gave above the Western world will do much to stop them because if they don't then their going to have a lot more unfriendly nations with nuclear weapons in the end because Russia and China will most likely fast track any allies that wishes to have nuclear weapons too.

So... depends on how much the people of said nations are willing to suffer economically and diplomatically on the world stage to build a nuclear weapon.

I just don't see the Polish or the Japanese people willing to suffer economically greatly to build a nuclear weapon.

It’s an interesting thought process though, how far would nato really go to stop one of its members from building nukes?

 

[Snowfall]

Also import to note they are democracies so it's not like the government can just do it if the people don't want to or end up suffering for it, as the government will get voted out and one voted in that will end the program if it's something the people didn't "sign up" for.

So... Again, comes down to the will of the people and how much their willing to suffer for it.

A nuclear Poland? Logistics, political challenges ahead of potential Warsaw deal - Breaking Defense

“Poland’s history makes it very clear why they are concerned that the people they align with, and the people they rely on for protection from Russia, will abandon them,” Jon Wolfsthal, a former US government official now with the Federation of American Scientists, told Breaking Defense.

breakingdefense.com

This poll has 52.9% of poles expressing the desire for Poland to have an independent nuclear deterrent. So I think it would really come down to nato if they actually decided to build them.