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Surprised No Iran Action so Far

DEFCON Warning System

DEFCON Warning System

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I'm a little surprised that there has been no action by Iran in response to the blockade yet.

A few possibilities:
  1. They're hurt more than we know (Possible)
  2. They're still trying to decide on a response (Doubtful)
  3. Their command and control is severely degraded and it is taking time to communicate orders (Highly possible)
  4. They want to come back to the table (Very doubtful)
It's currently 3 AM in Tehran when I wrote this. Prime attack time.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I'm a little surprised that there has been no action by Iran in response to the blockade yet.

A few possibilities:
  1. They're hurt more than we know (Possible)
  2. They're still trying to decide on a response (Doubtful)
  3. Their command and control is severely degraded and it is taking time to communicate orders (Highly possible)
  4. They want to come back to the table (Very doubtful)
It's currently 3 AM in Tehran when I wrote this. Prime attack time.
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They have no real ability to wage war effectively anymore, officially speaking. They have no navy left. All that’s left are some 3rd and 4th gen fighters, some missiles, and some defensive equipment. Not enough to deal with a blockage against the United States.

They are also stalling for time. Likely feigning passivity to manufacture another move.

I’m more surprised that Iran hasn’t decided to launch any ground ops yet.
 
Spyglass said:
more surprised that Iran hasn’t decided to launch any ground ops yet.
Click to expand...
To what end?

Spyglass said:
Not enough to deal with a blockage against the United States.
Click to expand...
They don't need to blockade physically. We see that the threat is enough.

What can they do? Lob missiles at enemy oil production. Hit economically. Destroy Saudi Arabia's pipeline that is currently bypassing the Strait.
 
In my opinion, there will be no retaliation as long as there is no attack on Iran by the US or Israel. For the Mullahs, remaining in power is paramount. Therefore, they remain in power and the attacks cease.
 
GBS61 said:
In my opinion, there will be no retaliation as long as there is no attack on Iran by the US or Israel. For the Mullahs, remaining in power is paramount. Therefore, they remain in power and the attacks cease.
Click to expand...
The problem is that Iran's economy is seriously cut off now. The government gets 50% of its income from oil. 80% of its foreign currency comes from oil.

That's just oil. Since the US is blocking everything from Iran ports now, that cuts into the economy more.

Iran's economy is in shambles. 1 US dollar is 1.3 million Iranian rials.

Food inflation is more than 100%.

I saw someone claiming a report from Iran's central bank or something that says it will take Iran's economy 12 years to recover. No idea if the report is true.

Sure, the IRGC can point guns at the population to keep them in control. But if the IRGC isn't getting paid... Though North Korea does a good job of keeping everyone in line with a terrible economy. But that country is on total lockdown. Iran only just started that. And the population doesn't believe the IRGC is god.
 
I think plenty is on going. Right now Iran is still trying to assess just how fraked they are. Thats the problem with terminating the entire government 2.5 times and destroying communications throughout Persia. On top of that they have to assess the direct damage to the armed forces and differentiate between industries which can and can not be reconstituted.

Next is the less obvious problem of secondary effects. Which industries and Goverment programs are going to collapse under the sheer weight of demand without resupply and they need to decide how long they want to delay and hang on.

Opinion
Iran is going to go very arab (whilst still swearing to be Persian). They are going to make promises then walk them back while always outright lying. Arabs do not negotiate with any intent to follow through, especially on the battlefield or peace talks.

The Iranians see the negotiations as warfare and its one they can win. They have no intention of negotiating a lasting piece the way European powers do. They are going to drag out until Midterms in the United States and hope the opposition party will do what their armies cannot: defeat the USA and the Trump administration.

They are probably correct. At this point Trump will probably not rengage unless the Iranians do something stupid. I think he was deeply stunned at the lack of backbone in europe and sees no reason to go out on a limb any further just for them.

As we all know the USA is awash in hydrocarbons (in fact we bump up and down with being the number one producer) and has no need for the middle east in general and without the Soviet Union to have a Peer influence race little interest amongst the populace and politicians. With Israel overwhelmingly equipped, now with a proven and virtually unstoppable nuclear triad, we really only have some rote and legacy interests.

Militarily Iran is wiped out. Their ability to project power abroad or even locally is nonexistent. Russia is in no position to make good Irans losses to their entire armed forces anytime soon. Unless we see an unholy axis rise where each helps the other: Iranian troops to Ukraine and Russian export level tech to Tehran. While unlikely, its is within a reasonable probability and bears scrutiny.

China could rearm them in exchange for oil but Iran has nearly none marketable. Over time, Iran will get the less interested and far less determined US opposition to reduce sanctions (“Its for the children…”). They will sell it as oil for food.

Iran is probably correct and a opposition US Congress (democrats) will probably impeach Trump on day one. Removal depends on the Senate but it would be a boon to VP Vance who could then serve 10 years (9.99) as president in any combination. In fact I believe Trump might just resign. He has nothing left to proven on his to do list and the second half of the second term for presidents almost always badly for any party. On top of that having his protege serve 10 years (or able too) would really be a ego stroke to Trump as he retires.
 
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I see Iran trying to hold out until the midterms, but a hostile Congress won't stop Trump.

How does the war authorisation work? After 60 days the President needs Congressional authorisation. But once it is given, can it be rescinded?

The mid-terms are coming, but a new Administration is a long way off still.
 
War power has never been tested. Many scholars and nearly all presidents view it as unconstitutional.

Both presidents and Congress have, in the past, always compromised as neither wants to lose in the Supreme Court.

Trump has an unbelievable record in court and may decide to litigate.

IMO
A simple reading of the constitution shows it to be completely unconstitutional. Congress doesn’t have to pay for the war or maneuvers but only President can decided what to do with the military.

Thoughts of Roosevelt’s “White Fleet” that Congress refused to fund the worldwide circumnavigation. Roosevelt scraped together enough money for fuel to send them halfway around the world and strand them. He then asked congress what they were gonna do about it. (which was bringing them home).

I’m also reminded of Reagan and the Boland amendment when congress cut off aid for the Contras. It didn’t even come close to cutting off the fighting and “alternative revenue streams” were used and the violence increased.

I personally would like to see it tested.
 
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