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US-Israel/Iran | CF Unstable & Unresolved | April-18th/May-20th | Analysis

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DEFCON Warning System said:
That is what we are worried about.
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Yes. If Iran still has a Hail Mary option left under existential pressure, I would not doubt that it would at least be attempted.

At the same time, a lot of people underestimate that Israel, under similar existential conditions, will do whatever it believes is necessary.

So if both sides are pushed into that kind of corner, both could potentially move toward first use of non conventional weapons.

CLARIFICATION: That said, I do not think we are there yet. In my view, it would likely take something major, such as a real collapse in U.S. support, a traumatic strategic shock, or a serious depletion of Israeli air defense assets before Israel would consider a non conventional strike on Iran.

But the threat remains. As long as there is no genuine peace deal and hostilities continue, that risk does not go away.
 
NuclearID said:
Yes. If Iran still has a Hail Mary option left under existential pressure, I would not doubt that it would at least be attempted.

At the same time, a lot of people underestimate that Israel, under similar existential conditions, will do whatever it believes is necessary.

So if both sides are pushed into that kind of corner, both could potentially move toward first use of non conventional weapons.

CLARIFICATION: That said, I do not think we are there yet. In my view, it would likely take something major, such as a real collapse in U.S. support, a traumatic strategic shock, or a serious depletion of Israeli air defense assets before Israel would consider a non conventional strike on Iran.

But the threat remains. As long as there is no genuine peace deal and hostilities continue, that risk does not go away.
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It'd take something drastic from the US to actually cause an existential concern for the Iranian regime, right now they have two unconventional weapons ready to use whenever which makes their language seem very confident, or rather one since the strait of Hormuz is already blocked, and that is the Red Sea.
 
Cilvilt_beredskap said:
which makes their language seem very confident
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Maybe stop to think for a second. They truly believe their death cult propaganda and they're ready to go down, suffer, even if it takes their entire people with them, in the name of their crooked, sick, perverted ideolgy they have been trying to export to other countries for decades. No... You don't say... Of course they speak of confidence, just like any other madman religious fringe.

The world really needs a dose of reality.

Even after many of their own countries have been attacked or had terrorists attacks sprung on their nations by Iran or Iran inspired attackers. Yet, they still remain blind, or choose to remain ignorant of the fact this regime should never even remotely come close to having nuclear weapons.

Then some governments have the nerve to speak on it like they sit on some high horse which they do not after refusing to even do the bare minimum about this. Looking at you European governments. Just hope your ready to fend your continent on your own. 👋
 
NuclearID said:
Maybe stop to think for a second. They truly believe their death cult propaganda and they're ready to go down, suffer, even if it takes their entire people with them, in the name of their crooked, sick, perverted ideolgy they have been trying to export to other countries for decades. No... You don't say... Of course they speak of confidence, just like any other madman religious fringe.

The world really needs a dose of reality.

Even after many of their own countries have been attacked or had terrorists attacks sprung on their nations by Iran or Iran inspired attackers. Yet, they still remain blind, or choose to remain ignorant of the fact this regime should never even remotely come close to having nuclear weapons.

Then have the nerve to speak on it like they sit on some high horse which they do not after refusing to even do the bare minimum about this. Looking at you European governments. Just hope your ready to fend your continent on your own. 👋
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The two unconventional weapons being the choking of international trade via Houthis and the strait of Hormuz, meaning unconventional weapons figuratively.
 
Define fighting, rumors?🤔
Likely click baiters

Iran Military Says Ready to Respond to Any Renewed US Attack
ground.news

Iran Military Says Ready to Respond to Any Renewed US Attack

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warn of strong retaliation if fighting resumes, as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds and negotiations remain uncertain. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it is ready to deliver “crushing blows” if hostilities with the United States resume, despite a extension of...
ground.news
 
PeacePlease said:
Rumors the fighting has resumed? @NuclearID
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Sorry I missed this yesterday but rest assured I should know within minutes any moment hostilities occur. I have an extensive network that has my own personal phone number.

So please do not hesitate to tag me or inform me of information because there's been a few times people on the forums who tag me on information before I get notified even by my own personal contacts that notify me.

So do not think of this message as dismissal! IN fact quite the opposite, I appreciate it and encourage it.

However I want to calm fears that I won't be at the helm the moment a crisis occurs. I have been here for the last 15 years and in the last 15 years every crisis I have been there the moment it has happened... I don't intend on bringing that cycle to an end anytime soon. ;)

As I have said before sleep or the rest is for the dead or weak. As long as I'm alive and as long as there's world crises I'll be providing factual information on said crises when it truly matters, so long as I live. :)
 
william said:
Where is the USS Boxer? That's the MEU I've been waiting for to get on station. When you see that I believe kinetic action will be imminent. Just after a MASSIVE air strike. IMO
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Amphibious assault ship USS Boxer (LHD-4) arrived Tuesday in Apra Harbor, Guam, according to ship spotters and is now operating in the Sulu Sea. The Boxer Amphibious Ready Group includes Boxer, USS Comstock (LSD-45), USS Portland (LPD-27) and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit.
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Still not on station.
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NuclearID said:
🇺🇸🗣️
The White House has told CBS News that it will not conduct its negotiations with Iran through the media.

“These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the US will not negotiate through the press,” Assistant White House Press Secretary Olivia Wales said in a statement carried by CBS News.

🔗⤵️
https://twitter.com/x/status/2048789067140137377
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Conducting negotiations through Truth Social, however, will continue as normal. 🙄
 
So why did the U.S. launch an air campaign in the first place? And why were sanctions on Iranian oil lifted, effectively giving them billions of dollars that they’re now using to wait this out?

Why was Ali Larijani assassinated? All it seems to have done is consolidate power under the IRGC. Larijani was the only figure with undisputed authority across all sectors of Iranian power, including the IRGC, the clerical establishment, and the civilian government.

If the strategy is to wait for Iran to give up before they’re forced to cap their oil wells, it could take weeks before the U.S. decides enough is enough. The idea that Iran will surrender simply because of that pressure doesn’t make sense. Oil revenues account for less than half of Iran’s budget, and they are likely to respond by escalating money printing.

Before Iran reaches a breaking point, many Asian economies could suffer severe consequences. The aviation industry in India, for example, is already on the verge of shutting down.

Now, Trump has announced a shift toward an economic blockade. This raises the question: why launch an air campaign with objectives that were never fully achieved? Why not start with this approach from the beginning? And why lift sanctions on Iranian oil in the first week at all?

A permanent ceasefire seems unrealistic. Iran is likely to resume hostilities unilaterally once the blockade begins to seriously hurt. At this point, the current approach appears to be delaying the inevitable while accelerating global economic strain.

In effect, the U.S. is neither fully pursuing a negotiated deal nor committing to continued military action. Instead, it seems to be hoping that the IRGC will eventually capitulate under an oil blockade, even as the rest of the world absorbs the economic damage and other countries begin to struggle.

Meanwhile, Iran could still choose to escalate by targeting regional oil infrastructure regardless.

So what exactly is the plan?
 
Sentry said:
So why did the U.S. launch an air campaign in the first place? And why were sanctions on Iranian oil lifted, effectively giving them billions of dollars that they’re now using to wait this out?

Why was Ali Larijani assassinated? All it seems to have done is consolidate power under the IRGC. Larijani was the only figure with undisputed authority across all sectors of Iranian power, including the IRGC, the clerical establishment, and the civilian government.

If the strategy is to wait for Iran to give up before they’re forced to cap their oil wells, it could take weeks before the U.S. decides enough is enough. The idea that Iran will surrender simply because of that pressure doesn’t make sense. Oil revenues account for less than half of Iran’s budget, and they are likely to respond by escalating money printing.

Before Iran reaches a breaking point, many Asian economies could suffer severe consequences. The aviation industry in India, for example, is already on the verge of shutting down.

Now, Trump has announced a shift toward an economic blockade. This raises the question: why launch an air campaign with objectives that were never fully achieved? Why not start with this approach from the beginning? And why lift sanctions on Iranian oil in the first week at all?

A permanent ceasefire seems unrealistic. Iran is likely to resume hostilities unilaterally once the blockade begins to seriously hurt. At this point, the current approach appears to be delaying the inevitable while accelerating global economic strain.

In effect, the U.S. is neither fully pursuing a negotiated deal nor committing to continued military action. Instead, it seems to be hoping that the IRGC will eventually capitulate under an oil blockade, even as the rest of the world absorbs the economic damage and other countries begin to struggle.

Meanwhile, Iran could still choose to escalate by targeting regional oil infrastructure regardless.

So what exactly is the plan?
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Bold of you to assume there's a strategy.
I think instead of 4D chess, a game of snakes and ladders is being played.
 
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