US-Israel/Iran | CF Unstable & Unresolved | April-18th/May-20th | Analysis

[Ben Dhyani]

US Navy equated with pirates by the CiC of the US military....

“We took over the ship. We took over the cargo, took over the oil. It’s a very profitable business. Who would have thought we were doing that? We’re like pirates. We’re sort of like pirates,” Trump said.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050368660360032561

 

[Yingyang]

And that is why the campaign started with comprehensive bombing.
I believe for any control of the gulf, the straight, and a blockade to work. The risk to US navel vessels had to be mitigated. Hence the bombing and not offering up singular targets afloat to missile barrage.

Now as to why it’s seems to be a ad hoc military diplomacy plan. It is very much in keeping with White House statements about never being specific of the consequences or options. One could argue it appears to be a poorly cobbled together overall plan.
I can’t or won’t argue if it is or isn’t.

I will point out that if you where to look at the totality of US diplomatic and military actions taken since Trump has returned to office.
Oil markets, production, diplomatic moves, and bilateral arrangements globally.
There is in my mind a plan there.
Secure the western hemisphere, secure access to Venezuela’s oil. Then damage to opec’s market caps. And yes even tariffs. There all designed to break the international trade paradigm of the last 50+ years.
It’s very much a return to nations negotiating and taking steps that are in their own national self interest. Including the US, irregardless of the consternation it is causing allies or trading partners.

After all the rules based world order of the last 50 years hasn’t really curtailed conflict or nuclear proliferation.

What risk to US navy? They havn't entered the strait at all to my knowledge and are working at distance from iranian coastline.

 

[Ben Dhyani]

But some already have nuclear weapons....

PRESIDENT TRUMP: We’re in a war because, I think you would agree, we can’t let lunatics have a nuclear weapon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050324184740278662

 

[Torch]

Which is why this cannot be left halfway done. If you leave the IRGC in control, no matter what deal you make, they will go for the bomb anyway. Leaving this war right now leaves everyone worse off than before the war.

I dont see any world powers or even regional powers beyond Israel and the United States of America stepping up to help in even the smallest way. Most ofvtge world powers are at great risk while the USA is at almost none. I see no reason to continue the expense and sacrifice for uncaring and delusional Fairweather allies. Maybe we could lose some of these allies that aside from letting us know when they need them are quick to offer us any aid so long as it doesn’t inconvenience them whatsoever (and maybe not even them) Not only must it cost them nothing, we will need to pay them before they consider allowing us to use airbases and ports (that we already paid them to use) with our own weapons and fuel.

 

[Torch]

Which is why this cannot be left halfway done. If you leave the IRGC in control, no matter what deal you make, they will go for the bomb anyway. Leaving this war right now leaves everyone worse off than before the war.

I dont see any world powers or even regional powers beyond Israel and the United States of America stepping up to help in even the smallest way. Most of the world powers are at great risk while the USA is at almost none. I see no reason to continue the expense and sacrifice for uncaring and delusional fair-weather allies. Maybe we could lose some of these allies that, aside from letting us know when they need us, are quick to offer the USA any aid so long as it doesn’t inconvenience them whatsoever (and maybe not even then). Not only must it cost them nothing, we will need to pay them before they consider allowing us to use airbases and ports (that we already paid to use) with our own weapons and fuel.

Frak them. Let just consider 2x+ asshats deep into the roster as the limit of our largess and come home. Not just from the Gulf but from every location that is not the Americas and the Pacific. Europe has shown they feel “all grown up and safe” so lets let them have at it, with the exception of the UK and Greenland. (We can always have independent relations with the French)

 

[Lostpuppy]

Good words

I dont see any world powers or even regional powers beyond Israel and the United States of America stepping up to help in even the smallest way. Most ofvtge world powers are at great risk while the USA is at almost none. I see no reason to continue the expense and sacrifice for uncaring and delusional Fairweather allies. Maybe we could lose some of these allies that aside from letting us know when they need them are quick to offer us any aid so long as it doesn’t inconvenience them whatsoever (and maybe not even them) Not only must it cost them nothing, we will need to pay them before they consider allowing us to use airbases and ports (that we already paid to use) with our own weapons and fuel.

Frak them. Let just consider 2x+ asshats deep into the roster as the limit of our largess and come home. Not just from the Gulf but from every location that is not the Americas and the Pacific. Europe has shown they feel “all grown up and safe” so lets let them have at it, with the exception of the UK and Greenland. (We can always have independent relations with the French)

,
Good words,
Maybe a full, complete pull back on US military in all theatres Let the world sort itself out without any harm to come to the USA?
Let the evil axis powers run amok in so many countries it bankrupts them.

Imagine China and Russia taking control of so many nations when it cant even manage home finances and political culture.

You would have a reduced need for military and reinvest in the voters in the USA
You wouldnt need a monster government do we could jettison lots of those jobs,

Not even silly, right?

 

[teekay99]

Even if no one else steps up, and even if the Trump administration pulls troops from Europe, the IRGC and the Iranian regime must still be toppled. If the US simply leaves Iran because someone at the top thinks we've won, the remaining elements in charge in Iran will become more hard-line, more entrenched, more dangerous, and will fully pursue nuclear weapons development. Sanctions alone will not stop them (look at the DPRK as an example).

So far, all we've done to the Iranian leadership (well the hard-line leaders that are left) is reinforced their desire for nuclear weapons.

 

[Yingyang]

But some already have nuclear weapons....

PRESIDENT TRUMP: We’re in a war because, I think you would agree, we can’t let lunatics have a nuclear weapon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2050324184740278662

NK ? PAKISTAN? CHINA ? please

 

[Sentry]

I believe for any control of the gulf, the straight, and a blockade to work. The risk to US navel vessels had to be mitigated. Hence the bombing and not offering up singular targets afloat to missile barrage.

Key point, Iran is still in control of the Strait and is able to chokehold the global economy.

 

[Sentry]

I dont see any world powers or even regional powers beyond Israel and the United States of America stepping up to help in even the smallest way. Most ofvtge world powers are at great risk while the USA is at almost none. I see no reason to continue the expense and sacrifice for uncaring and delusional Fairweather allies. Maybe we could lose some of these allies that aside from letting us know when they need them are quick to offer us any aid so long as it doesn’t inconvenience them whatsoever (and maybe not even them) Not only must it cost them nothing, we will need to pay them before they consider allowing us to use airbases and ports (that we already paid to use) with our own weapons and fuel.

Frak them. Let just consider 2x+ asshats deep into the roster as the limit of our largess and come home. Not just from the Gulf but from every location that is not the Americas and the Pacific. Europe has shown they feel “all grown up and safe” so lets let them have at it, with the exception of the UK and Greenland. (We can always have independent relations with the French)

I'd argue it's not exactly fair to start a war without informing any allies & expecting them to jump in. European navies are not in a state to operate in the Gulf and provide any meaningful support. What they can do is power the U.S.'s global logistics network and enable it to project power globally. Without European bases & logistics, the U.S. will greatly lose its ability to influence nations as a superpower. Operation Epic Fury wouldn't have been possible without Ramstein AFB, or RAF Fairford, for example. Or without the massive airlift that went via Europe.

It's the United States & Israel that Iran will nuke first if it does get a nuclear weapon. Look at North Korea, Kim talks specifically of nuking South Korea & the U.S., and has made ICBMs exactly for this purpose. I'd bet every bone in my body Iran will nuke the U.S. before it ever thinks of nuking Europe.

Regardless, this isn't about Europe - it's about the U.S.'s Gulf allies as well as Israel, who are the ones who took the brunt of Iranian attacks.

 

[Sentry]

I'm not opposed to taking the IRGC out at all - it'd be brilliant if that happened. My point is that, the U.S. set out a plan to eliminate the Iranian regime, which has so far backfired spectacularly and ended up with the IRGC in control, the Strait of Hormuz blocked, and a battered, vengeful Iran that has learnt the U.S. cannot be trusted & that a nuke is the ultimate deterrent.

If the U.S. wanted European support, it should've taken the time to plan this operation properly & create a proper international coalition, as it did in the Iraq War & in Afghanistan, where European militaries sent boots on the ground beside American troops.

To repeat, my gripe is with execution, not with intent/objective.

 

[Yingyang]

I dont see any world powers or even regional powers beyond Israel and the United States of America stepping up to help in even the smallest way. Most ofvtge world powers are at great risk while the USA is at almost none. I see no reason to continue the expense and sacrifice for uncaring and delusional Fairweather allies. Maybe we could lose some of these allies that aside from letting us know when they need them are quick to offer us any aid so long as it doesn’t inconvenience them whatsoever (and maybe not even them) Not only must it cost them nothing, we will need to pay them before they consider allowing us to use airbases and ports (that we already paid them to use) with our own weapons and fuel.

Agreed israel is an unnecessary drain on america. And in all honesty no allie outside of ME. Infact they are a major disaster caused by evil leadership to its own population. And neighbours in their own region that isn't their own........ Israel leadership will show its true colours in near future and america will learn an unnecessary lesson new to them as they don,t learn from unnecessary lessons from their own repeat performances caused from previous and current conflicts of choice. Massive and expensive air campaigns acheive bugger all . Proven time and time again since vietnam. Shit even troops on the ground acheived bugger all in said conflict and since. Definition of crazy? Repeat same process expecting different results

 

[RiffRaff]

So the War is terminated, whats the consensus then?

Then we start this whole dance over again and some other President will have to deal with a much more hostile Iran hell-bent on defending themselves with nuclear weapons.

 

[RiffRaff]

Good words,
Maybe a full, complete pull back on US military in all theatres Let the world sort itself out without any harm to come to the USA?
Let the evil axis powers run amok in so many countries it bankrupts them.

I have long-said, going back as far as pre-911, that if I was President one of the first things I would do is close all military bases not on US or NATO soil and reassign all equipment and personnel. Let all nations know that the US will no longer attempt to police the entire world or get involved in wars that do not directly involve American or NATO territory, with one exception: For every American killed by a terrorist organization or hostile power, America will kill 1,000 of those responsible. For every American taken hostage by a terrorist organization or hostile power, America will kill 1,000 of those responsible every day until they are released. If for some reason America has no choice but to go to war, we won't send 5,000 troops, or 10,000 troops, or 50,000 troops - we will descend on the enemy with hundreds of thousands of troops with the singular goal of complete annihilation until the enemy dies or surrenders. The philosophy of "proportional response" will no longer be followed. America will mind her own business and take care of our own problems first, but if you fuck with a single American citizen, you will experience the wrath of all the gods combined. My name is RiffRaff, and I would appreciate your vote in 2028.

This statement has been approved by the RiffRaff for President Foundation of America.

 

[william]

I'd argue it's not exactly fair to start a war without informing any allies & expecting them to jump in. I would argue that it wasn't the US that started a war. It was the Iranians who have been killing Americans for over 40 years. When the US finally says enough and fights back suddenly everyone has their panties in a bunch. European navies are not in a state to operate in the Gulf and provide any meaningful support. What they can do is power the U.S.'s global logistics network and enable it to project power globally. Did I miss something? Didn't Europe refuse over flight, airbase and ports to the US in Epic Fury and we were still able to pound Iran pretty good IMO. Without European bases & logistics, the U.S. will greatly lose its ability to influence nations as a superpower. Operation Epic Fury wouldn't have been possible without Ramstein AFB, or RAF Fairford, for example. Or without the massive airlift that went via Europe. I do believe the airlift was with American aircraft, not European, and it went to the Middle East not Europe.

It's the United States & Israel that Iran will nuke first if it does get a nuclear weapon. Look at North Korea, Kim talks specifically of nuking South Korea & the U.S., and has made ICBMs exactly for this purpose. I'd bet every bone in my body Iran will nuke the U.S. before it ever thinks of nuking Europe. I don't think Iran has the range to strike the homeland here yet. They do have the range to hit American bases in the Middle East and Europe

Regardless, this isn't about Europe - it's about the U.S.'s Gulf allies as well as Israel, who are the ones who took the brunt of Iranian attacks.

 

[Sentry]

Okay, I'll say "commenced retaliatory military operations against Iran" instead of "started a war". I believe the war is fully justified, FWIW.

Europe did not refuse overflight, airbases & ports to the US at a large scale. All the bombing missions flew out of RAF Fairford, which is not an American base. Germany operated as the logistical backbone of the entire theater, processing the heavy flow of materials required to sustain prolonged combat operations.

While some countries did refuse overflight and offensive basing, Europe as a whole still served as the absolute bedrock of the U.S. military's logistics and support network during Operation Epic Fury. For example:

United Kingdom (RAF Fairford): Heavily laden bombers flew continuous sorties out of Fairford, as the base instantly became the main forward operations hub for the U.S. heavy bomber fleet in Europe.
Germany (Ramstein Air Base): Served as the ultimate anchor for the entire campaign. It acted as a constant air bridge, receiving heavy transport aircraft (like C-17s and C-130Js) to ferry personnel, munitions, and equipment from the U.S. into the Gulf region. It also acted as the central node for drone data relay and strike coordination.
Portugal (Lajes Air Base): Located in the Azores, this Atlantic island base served as a massive logistics and refueling hub for U.S. aircraft making the crossing toward the Middle East.
Greece (Souda Bay): This deep-water port on Crete was heavily utilized for secure naval communications and acted as a launch pad for U.S. Rivet Joint spy planes monitoring Iranian signals.
France: France allowed U.S. aerial refueling tankers to operate out of its Istres-Le Tubé Air Base.
Romania: Critical eastern European point for hosting U.S. logistics and intelligence operations.

The airlift went to the Middle East yes, but not directly from CONUS. It went via Europe.

Iran doesn't have the range today, but if you leave it halfway done, it will have the range in a few years from now.

 

[NuclearID]

We can replace Europe as the air bridge via Africa to M.E via just expansion of existing African bases, not to mention the ability to build more bases quickly in Africa, don't take much to build a military landing strip...

Plus we need to reconnect with Africa anyways for many reasons. So. Two birds one stone. Don't really need Europe. Get closer to Africa whom we been drifting away from to much.

We need to leave EU and go directly to Asia. Beef it up their. Counter the red dragon in the Pacific.

 

[NuclearID]

We can replace Europe as the air bridge via Africa to M.E

We already proven this method in this war. We don't need them to reach M.E. But that's besides the point.

My one and ONLY point is we have bigger fish to fry in the Pacific. Europe should be big boys now who should be able to put their big boy panties on and counter Russia on their own while we arm wrestle China in the Pacific. Their military and economies combined outweigh Russia tenfold. I mean...

NO reason to have all that sitting in Europe looking pretty when it could buy very real deterring effects in the Asian theater, that yes while are presents in Asia is large it should be much larger to truly deter China. Only way to do that is transplant what's in EU to Asian theater/allies. Is all...

 

[NuclearID]

We can replace Europe as the air bridge via Africa to M.E

Not sure how people are forgetting we have bases everywhere... Mostly unmarked, most even denied even though you can see them on satellite civilian imagery. But we have plenty of existing infrastructure to replace the air bridge from North America to the Middle East via Africa. Wouldn't even likely need expansion unless we plan on seriousness in long term war footing in M.E. which again would take little time and money to expand already existing military infrastructure and landing strips in Africa.

 

[Torch]

Operation Epic Fury wouldn't have been possible without Ramstein AFB, or RAF Fairford, for example. Or without the massive airlift that went via Europe

Of course it could have. Easily in fact.
But first we might not have needed to worry about a regional power that can just threaten Europe. We would be disinterested observers without military bases to protect inside Irans range and if we wanted to repeat without europe at all it would have been simple from pacific bases. Our bombers that take off in Louisiana and land in the Indian ocean do so just to GET MORE ORDINANCE. We can easily round trip bombing missions anywhere in the world with one take off and one landing. Even thats not necessary as there are pacific allies were we can operate out of.

The reason Nato and the EU and the US Congress and even the US Senate were not told in advance is because of leaks. Nato is a sieve and the EU ministers would be racing to have the first press conferences.

The idea of being locked out of our own equipment was something we never thought our allies would do. Why? Because countries that do that to you are not your allies. They are not even you friends anymore and they most certainly are not worth fighting and dying for.

I am pro France and pro UK and its Common Wealth Nations. None of them has done the US wrong aside from the perfectly reasonable following of their own self Interests.