🗣️ | Middle East War | Full Scale War Still Seems Imminent as Deterrence Erodes & Brinkmanship Intensifies | ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION

[Irag8er]

What is Pickaxe Mountain, the Iranian nuclear facility Trump is threatening to strike?​

What is Pickaxe Mountain, the Iranian nuclear facility Trump is threatening to strike?

"We'll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily," President Donald Trump said about Iran's underground nuclear facility in Pickaxe Mountain.

www.cnbc.com

 

[william]

Every day Centcom announces the start and stop of airstrikes. This is stupid IMO! The strikes should be running 24/7. We have multiple carriers in the region and the air force. If they're worried about aircraft getting shot down, then missiles and drones by day and aircraft by night! I guarantee though if you asked any of the pilots they would gladly attack iran in the day as well as the night. Now that we're in it, FINISH IT! TAKE IT TO THEM HARD, NONSTOP TILL THEY QUIT! IMO

 

[GBS61]

Every day Centcom announces the start and stop of airstrikes. This is stupid IMO! The strikes should be running 24/7. We have multiple carriers in the region and the air force. If they're worried about aircraft getting shot down, then missiles and drones by day and aircraft by night! I guarantee though if you asked any of the pilots they would gladly attack iran in the day as well as the night. Now that we're in it, FINISH IT! TAKE IT TO THEM HARD, NONSTOP TILL THEY QUIT! IMO

The U.S. military actually operates 24/7 in the theater of operations.

This discrepancy stems from the fundamental difference between the pace of military operations on the ground and the pace of press releases from CENTCOM (the United States Central Command).

Here's why the communication gives this false impression:

1. The Daily Timetable Rule
An obligation of transparency:

CENTCOM does not decide on strikes based on press releases. It conducts non-stop operations and then publishes a daily briefing at set times for the global media.

The time difference: Press releases are often synchronized with Washington (EST) time or the local time of their headquarters in Tampa, creating a purely bureaucratic "start and end" effect for the international public.

 

[Snowfall]

I wonder if the US will take the bait. Ukraine is hoping that if Russia is helping Iran, the US will start helping Ukraine.

I guarantee the U.S. already knows this, there was reports of it during the last round of hostilities too, I imagine the reaction will be the same as last time.

 

[william]

Vice President JD Vance & Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine reportedly warned President Trump of the risks of further escalation against Iran during a White House meeting.

Caine raised concerns over pressure on U.S. munitions stockpiles and other potential consequences, while maintaining the military could execute the options presented.

Cain needs to be fired, and Vance needs to be told to get back in his lane! Generals MacArthur and Patton are rolling over in their graves! FINISH IT! NO MORE DEALS! IMO

https://twitter.com/x/status/2081322489552986355

 

[william]

Vice President JD Vance & Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine reportedly warned President Trump of the risks of further escalation against Iran during a White House meeting.

Caine raised concerns over pressure on U.S. munitions stockpiles and other potential consequences, while maintaining the military could execute the options presented.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2081322489552986355

If missile inventories are indeed that low, SHAME ON AMERICA FOR ALLOWING THIS TO HAPPEN!!!! IMO
Is it possible this is a faint?

 

[william]

The US has burned through roughly a third of its total pre-war stockpile of key precision munitions in Iran War.Interceptors are the most exposed: up to 80% of THAAD (190–290 of 360), more than half of SM-3 (130–250 of 410), and up to 61% of Patriots (1,060–1,430 of 2,330) are gone. Long-range strike weapons are also depleted at scale, with 1,000+ Tomahawks and 1,100+ JASSMs used, and nearly the entire small PrSM stockpile (40–70 of 90) fired. Source: ABC, CSIS

When stuff like this is posted on the web I think they want to see America burn! IMO

I think the key word here is ESTIMATED!

https://twitter.com/x/status/2081308839941443810

 

[Sidney Reilly]

When stuff like this is posted on the web I think they want to see America burn! IMO

I think the key word here is ESTIMATED!

Just think if the United States has to take on two, three, or more enemies at once. We will burn through that stockpile. I'm thinking if that happens nuclear war will quickly break out.

Where are these anti aircraft mini-guns and laser turrets being shown the past few years?

 

[Peter Griffin]

Just think if the United States has to take on two, three, or more enemies at once. We will burn through that stockpile. I'm thinking if that happens nuclear war will quickly break out.

Where are these anti aircraft mini-guns and laser turrets being shown the past few years?

CRAM has been levied as a stopgap against small non traditional drones and loitering munitions since the start of the war .THAADs are intended to intercept ballistic missiles at a higher altitude as they enter the terminal phase of their path. Any missiles that are able to leak past are intended to be shot down by Patriot systems. My guess on why the MOD is asking for more time is because the Iranians have in essence found the sweet spot in relation to their targeting of Muwaffaq Salti (they need more assets in region). Supposedly an AEGIS system is active in Jordan as it was reported to have shot down 1 ballistic missile during the attack on King Hussein International Airport, These only represent a single part of a layered AD network though, and the concern for adding more traditional interceptors to our arsenal to flesh out our capacity to deal with larger attacks is valid when looking at the possibility of this continuing for the foreseeable future.

 

[DarkNoon]

Don't take the last two nights of no strike on Iran as respite. It is just a operational fork in the road. Not weather to make deal or war. But rather how far the war is going to escalate. As Israel's media is saying exactly word for word, "escalation is inevitable."

And if Israel state media is saying it is inevitable tells me the decision has already been made.

Israel will soon enough join the "gang bang" against Iran. Perhaps much further than seen before too. Trump MAY use Israel to hit targets US couldn't like power plants, water management, and oil extraction/export management facilities.

 

[Spyglass]

When stuff like this is posted on the web I think they want to see America burn! IMO

I think the key word here is ESTIMATED!

This information is actually classified. This is far more likely to be manufactured information, deliberately planted in order to mislead China/Iran.

Do you think that during the last 20+ years we just stopped making our munitions? You mean in 20 years we could only make around 4,000 Tomahawks? If you believe that, I have a nice B-52 in my backyard for sale. We have underground storage facilities filled with armaments. All connected by tunnels.

If we actually only had 2,100 tomahawks, 100 THAAD interceptors, and an inventory THAT low... on other key munitions, China would be able to take Taiwan in a week or less. An inventory that low renders us down to Paper Tiger status. We ain't no paper tiger.

 

[teekay99]

This information is actually classified. This is far more likely to be manufactured information, deliberately planted in order to mislead China/Iran.

Do you think that during the last 20+ years we just stopped making our munitions? You mean in 20 years we could only make around 4,000 Tomahawks? If you believe that, I have a nice B-52 in my backyard for sale. We have underground storage facilities filled with armaments. All connected by tunnels.

If we actually only had 2,100 tomahawks, 100 THAAD interceptors, and an inventory THAT low... on other key munitions, China would be able to take Taiwan in a week or less. An inventory that low renders us down to Paper Tiger status. We ain't no paper tiger.

That makes sense but leaves me asking 2 questions.

1. Could the numbers in the previous chart be estimates of munitions actually deployed with our military assets in the region instead of estimates of total munitions in our global inventory?
2. I see why the US might want to mislead Iran on our munitions inventory. But why would we want to mislead China? What response is the US seeking from China by downplaying our armament inventories? (This probably should be replied to in a separate thread to keep this thread clean...)

 

[Spyglass]

That makes sense but leaves me asking 2 questions.

1. Could the numbers in the previous chart be estimates of munitions actually deployed with our military assets in the region instead of estimates of total munitions in our global inventory?
2. I see why the US might want to mislead Iran on our munitions inventory. But why would we want to mislead China? What response is the US seeking from China by downplaying our armament inventories? (This probably should be replied to in a separate thread to keep this thread clean...)

1 - You are right we do not have that context. I think it is referencing total inventory, not just what is deployed to the theater.
2- Misleading China - Sun Tzu - Art of War - Fake weakness when strong. To expand on that : One of Sun Tzu's key principles is the use of deception in warfare. He advises, "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak." This approach allows for strategic manipulation of the enemy's perceptions, leading them to make mistakes. His teachings encourage flexibility and adaptability, which are crucial in dynamic situations.

 

[DarkNoon]

That makes sense but leaves me asking 2 questions.

1. Could the numbers in the previous chart be estimates of munitions actually deployed with our military assets in the region instead of estimates of total munitions in our global inventory?
2. I see why the US might want to mislead Iran on our munitions inventory. But why would we want to mislead China? What response is the US seeking from China by downplaying our armament inventories? (This probably should be replied to in a separate thread to keep this thread clean...)

1 - You are right we do not have that context. I think it is referencing total inventory, not just what is deployed to the theater.
2- Misleading China - Sun Tzu - Art of War - Fake weakness when strong. To expand on that : One of Sun Tzu's key principles is the use of deception in warfare. He advises, "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak." This approach allows for strategic manipulation of the enemy's perceptions, leading them to make mistakes. His teachings encourage flexibility and adaptability, which are crucial in dynamic situations.

If there truly were a dramatic shortage as some are claiming I’ll be honest... I have a hard time fully believing it. I don’t necessarily know whether it is deliberate deception, but I do know this the United States government has every means available to replenish those stockpiles quickly if it truly wants to.

If the situation were genuinely as severe as portrayed, I would expect Washington to treat it as a national emergency by federalizing or nationalizing critical industries, invoking emergency production authorities, and pouring the immense weight of the U.S. economy and its allied global supply chains behind replenishment. Under those conditions, we would not necessarily be talking about waiting many years and could have factory to foxhole within days.

But we are not seeing that level of mobilization from the federal government. The government is not behaving as though its stocks have fallen to catastrophically low levels that threaten national security AND IF the government itself is not acting like this is an emergency, then I have difficulty believing the most dramatic claims about how depleted those stockpiles supposedly are.

 

[RiffRaff]

Don't take the last two nights of no strike on Iran as respite. It is just a stock market manipulation to exploit.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Spyglass]

Exclusive-Iran to get Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems in weeks​

“Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defence missile launchers…”

Exclusive-Iran to get Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems in weeks, sources say

July 29 (Reuters) - Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defence missile launchers, three sources familiar with the deal told Reut...

www.yahoo.com

IMO
That costs about $70 million all in.

If they DAMAGE one Aircraft it pays for the entire buy. And they will. They are stupid easy to use except nighttime (they still work just not simple to use).

This is bad news for the US.

Not ideal. It will be good to gather combat data on these though.

 

[teekay99]

Not ideal. It will be good to gather combat data on these though.

China is denying this claim.

Source:

TRT World - China rejects report of planned missile launcher shipment to Iran as 'not factual'

Beijing dismisses claims that Iran is set to receive up to 400 Chinese-made air defence launchers, while Pakistan also denies any role in a reported transit plan.

www.trtworld.com

Relevant Quote:

China on Thursday denied a media report that Iran was expected to receive an initial batch of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defence missile launchers within weeks, calling the report "not true and not factual at all."

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular news briefing in Beijing that the country has made "its position clear on relevant issues on multiple occasions."

"The reports are not true and not factual at all," she said, emphasising that China "always works for peace and the end of the conflict."

 

[Irag8er]

China is denying this claim.

Source:

TRT World - China rejects report of planned missile launcher shipment to Iran as 'not factual'

Beijing dismisses claims that Iran is set to receive up to 400 Chinese-made air defence launchers, while Pakistan also denies any role in a reported transit plan.

www.trtworld.com

Relevant Quote:

Which is why I haven’t responded to the initial report.
It’s never going to happen, because it will never be allowed to happen.
JMHO

 

[Torch]

Not ideal. It will be good to gather combat data on these though.

The USA military publicly put laser defenses on all combat aircraft a year or go. They don't get Buck Rodgers kills, but do burn out IR seeker heads.

Works in White Sands and the Levant. Current counter measures of IR Jammers and IR/UV flares are quite effective for known threats.

We shall see

(Open Source)

 

[william]

Scrolling through cyber space today it appears iran is going to experience a US "Shock and Awe " campaign again.

U.S. Shock and Awe Strategy​

Shock and Awe is a U.S. military doctrine designed to achieve rapid dominance over an adversary by overwhelming them with a combination of intense, synchronized attacks and psychological impact, aiming to paralyze decision-making and destroy the enemy’s will to resist pvsmagazine.com+1.

Origins and Concept​

The term became widely used in the early 21st century as the U.S. adapted to post-Cold War threats, including asymmetric warfare and non-state actors. The core idea is to strike first, hard, and fast, using overwhelming force to create a sense of inevitability that the enemy cannot withstand pvsmagazine.com. It blends kinetic strikes (air, missile, and ground attacks) with information operations to disrupt enemy command, control, and morale.