🗣️ | US-Israel/Iran | Full Scale War Still Seems Imminent as Deterrence Erodes & Brinkmanship Intensifies | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

[DEFCON Warning System]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2084300970985484290

It's not like they haven't done this how many times now?

 

[Irag8er]

It's not like they haven't done this how many times now?

Eleventeen!

 

[RiffRaff]

What the heck is a perimeter of a deal? How is it any different from the last 5 or so deals?

Same thing as a "concept of a plan."

 

[teekay99]

Same thing as a "concept of a plan."

If it's clichés the US administration is seeking to invoke, may I suggest "the boy who cried wolf"?

If the US administration keeps claiming a deal is in the works, but one does not materialize, at what point do the administration's peace deal claims become part of the background noise we all ignore (assuming we have not approached that point already)? Maybe this is a rhetorical question...

 

[Torch]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2084300970985484290

Of course since Iran apparently attacked at least two ships AND HIT a US base in Kuwait today, One would assume the magic “peace talks on Monday” (aka today) did not produce a deal…

So are we (US) back on for bombing tonight?

 

[teekay99]

Who is being duplicitous?

Live Updates: Despite Trump's remarks, no new negotiations with Iran are planned, U.S. officials tell CBS News

President Trump, who called Tehran "unbelievably duplicitous," said the talks are the "last chance" for Iran to forge a deal and avoid an escalation.

www.cbsnews.com

Live Updates: Despite Trump's remarks, no new negotiations with Iran are planned, U.S. officials tell CBS News​

Despite President Trump's continued comments that negotiations with Iran are set to begin on Monday, U.S. officials have told CBS News that there are no "new" or novel negotiations planned.

Mr. Trump called Iran's leadership "unbelievably duplicitous" Monday after Iran said hours earlier it had no plans to hold direct talks with Washington, despite the U.S. leader's claim that negotiations would start today.

Responding to President Trump's comments about Iran being duplicitous, I must ask the following question:
Assuming the duplicity originates with Iran (some might argue the duplicity is elsewhere), is it a sign or symptom of a political power struggle between the "elected" government (I.e. the President and his ministers) and the supreme leader/IRGC? Could it be that the "elected" government is more willing to negotiate than the hard line leader / IRGC?

 

[Ben Dhyani]

Responding to President Trump's comments about Iran being duplicitous, I must ask the following question:
Assuming the duplicity originates with Iran (some might argue the duplicity is elsewhere), is it a sign or symptom of a political power struggle between the "elected" government (I.e. the President and his ministers) and the supreme leader/IRGC? Could it be that the "elected" government is more willing to negotiate than the hard line leader / IRGC?

My understanding is that the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei sets the red lines and has final say, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and his ministers can only negotiate with the US after receiving explicit permission from the Supreme Leader.

That there could possibly be differing opinions between the two (Khamenei and Pezeshkian), but I have not seen evidence of there being a public disagreement on a negotiation position.

 

[Spyglass]

Almost predictable at this point.

1. Make major threat
2. Cancel said threat at the last minute
3. Claim it was because somebody asked you to.
4. Rinse and repeat the next week.

Good observation. Hm.

 

[Spyglass]

The U.S./Iran war is another example of the U.S. starting a war but refusing to actually carry out a war.

Midterms.

 

[Torch]

*Infinity better: Leave the problem for those most at risk and yet they choose to do nothing.

 

[william]

My spider sense is tingling. I'm seeing allot of reports of hinky movements in countries surrounding iran. Just saying.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2084667598650650994

 

[Torch]

My spider sense is tingling. I'm seeing allot of reports of hinky movements in countries surrounding iran. Just saying.

Ground Combat is a thing, IMHO

 

[Torch]

Trump says Strait of Hormuz to reopen soon, warns Iran of military action​

“The Strait is going to be open very soon — or they’re going to hit very hard, and then the Strait is going to be open,” Trump

Trump says Strait of Hormuz to reopen soon, warns Iran of military action - Times Kuwait

US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “very soon,” warning Iran that Washington would take strong military action if a deal is not reached. Speaking to reporters before leaving Los Angeles following a Republican National Committee fundraising event, Trump said the...

timeskuwait.com

 

[RiffRaff]

Axios: A preliminary agreement is imminent to reopen the Strait of Hormuz​

“The United States, Iran, and Oman are nearing a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, according to Axios. Washington is expected to formally announce the agreement on Wednesday…”

Axios: A preliminary agreement is imminent to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Important developments regarding the agreement between the United States, Iran and the Sultanate of Oman, and its impact on shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

www.voiceofemirates.com

Today's forecast for the Strait of Hormuz: Two frontal boundaries of hot air are once again expected to collide over the Strait of Hormuz today and tomorrow, with US optimism clashing with Iranian denials. By Friday or Saturday, the area over Iran will once again turn hot as the US optimism quickly fades, resulting in an 80% chance of threatening rhetoric, with a 50% chance of bombs raining across the entire Middle East over the weekend. A new cold front is predicted to move into the area by next Monday, bringing an end to the end and a fresh round of optimism and denials. We expect this weather pattern to continue ad infinitum for the next few weeks.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Ground Combat is a thing, IMHO

Hard to see any country fighting our wars for us again given our treatment of those in the region post Afghan pullout. Saudi Arabia does not have the capacity to mount a ground offensive into Iran proper, unless they somehow find a way to rigidize their oil infrastructure from unconventional attacks they won't apply the pressure needed to win this war on the ground.

 

[NuclearID]

Related thread:

Thread 'Iran's Economy'

Monday at 3:52 AM

Here is a quick report on Iran's economy:

• GDP: The IMF now projects Iran’s real GDP to contract by 5.4% in 2026. That is a very substantial recession, particularly considering that Iran entered the war already weakened by sanctions and structural economic problems.
• Inflation: Iran's Statistical Centre reported 87.9% year-on-year inflation in July. Prices rose another 3.1% just during July. The IMF projects average consumer-price inflation of approximately 68.9% for 2026. These figures use somewhat different methodologies, which explains the difference.
• Food: The damage is...

• DEFCON Warning System
• Replies: 9
• Forum: General Discussion

• 

 

[william]

Reports of unidentified drones over Diego Garcia are raising new questions about the vulnerability of one of the U.S. military’s most strategically important—and remote—installations.

The U.K. Ministry of Defence confirmed it was aware of the reported sightings but provided no details. U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) likewise declined to discuss the incident or force-protection measures.

The reports originated with an unofficial Air Force social media account, which claimed drones had been spotted near the base’s fuel farm and that a 0700–1900 curfew had been imposed. TWZ says it has not independently verified those claims.

The timing is significant. Diego Garcia was already considered a priority target for Iran, with F-16s deployed to the island in February specifically for protection against one way attack drones and cruise missiles. Iran subsequently launched two ballistic missiles at the installation during Operation Epic Fury, though neither hit the base.

The reported drone sightings highlight a different threat: long range or sea launched drones that could reach isolated bases far from conventional launch points. Diego Garcia sits roughly 1,000 miles from Sri Lanka and has virtually no civilian population that could plausibly account for recreational drone activity.

In the past, Diego Garcia has been a temporary home for strategic U.S. bombers and has been used to reload U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke calss guided missile destroyer vertical launch system (VLS) cells with munitions like the SM-6 and Tomahawk.

Whose drones were they. I would look farther to the east. IMO

https://twitter.com/x/status/2087141235551064489

Drone Sightings Are Happening At Diego Garcia, America's Remote Strategic Island Outpost

The sightings highlight concerns about drone attacks from the sea, especially at a time of extreme hostility between Iran and the U.S.

www.twz.com

 

[william]

| MOSSAD: WE VISITED THE FORDOW NUCLEAR SITE MANY TIMES

Interesting statement.

The former head of Mossad, Yossi Cohen, stated: "We visited the Fordow nuclear site many times to understand it. The U.S. bombing of the place is the realization of all my dreams.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2087152385097347124

• The X post by pro-Israel user
  @isaacrrr7
  accurately reports ex-Mossad chief Yossi Cohen's fresh statement from the Galilee Conference, where he revealed Mossad "toured" Iran's underground Fordow nuclear site many times to understand it.
• Cohen called the June 2025 US strike on Fordow—using B-2 bombers and bunker-buster bombs during the Israel-Iran war—"the fulfillment of all my dreams," reflecting long-term Israeli intelligence focus on the facility.
• He also assessed that Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile is still far from bomb-ready, providing context on post-strike damage assessments after the US targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

He also assessed that Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile is still far from bomb-ready, providing context on post-strike damage assessments after the US targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

That is an odd statement as most consider 60% to be a short step to weapons grade.

 

[Torch]

Current and former U.S. officials said Israel supplied multiple warnings during the past year alleging Iranian plots against President Trump, including proposed sniper, knife and shoulder launched missile attacks.

The CIA could not corroborate several allegations and assessed some with low confidence. Turkey reportedly found no evidence supporting a separate warning involving Trump’s July visit. Israel denied attempting to influence U.S. policy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2088213951309881840

Im not sure where this is going or supposed to go.

Even if you despise the President, who amongst us seriously thinks Trump turned down his current air limo or his new “pimp my rider” aero deluxe from friendly arabs to, all whilst being 80 years old and 1000 lbs overweight, climb through service doors and hatches to ride the luggage cart, in the back with said luggage, around the airport tarmac?