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Putting It All Together

DrMantisToboggan

Active member
Joined
Sep 13, 2025
It seems like this week has really ratcheted up the tensions between RU/Ukraine/NATO. From the Storm Shadow deal on Monday, to Ratcliffe’s sudden visit Tuesday, the media speculating on what he was there for and no one getting a straight answer on it, Trump/Stubb saying Putin won’t invade NATO, Slutsky stating Russia “could have used nukes in Ukraine” but “chose restraint,” etc. it seems like there’s a lot of moving parts going on at once. Are we headed towards a significant crisis akin to that of Fall, 2022, or something worse? I just have no clue what to think anymore with everyone contradicting one another. (Admin, feel free to move)
 
Are we headed towards a significant crisis akin to that of Fall, 2022, or something worse?
The US still seems to want to stay out of it. Europe not so much, which invites Russian clandestine attacks.

As long as the US remains out, that is a good thing as far as escalation goes. So this now depends on what Europe does.

This doesn't mean Russia isn't the aggressor. It just means the next move belongs to Europe. (Or the US if it has a change of heart and wants to start getting more involved.)
 
There are more pieces than that on the board now, though. Canada has had it with the US, and we've managed to piss them off to the point that it's affecting our ability to access data from our ground-based missile warning stations in Canada's Arctic. I've seen estimates as high as a 40% reduction in our early warning detection capabilities. We can still detect missile launches, but we can't see where they're going until they're less than 15 minutes away from their targets. Russia tested this almost immediately by sending four Bear bombers into Alaska's ADIZ. Standard protocol is to launch both Canadian and American fighters to intercept. Nobody knew what to do since Canada's Tier 1 status had been revoked, so they were allowed to approach without interception. They turned back on their own before actually crossing into Alaskan airspace.

There is a canal that all ships entering the Great Lakes must pass through. It is on Canadian territory and operated by Canadians. Over $20 Billion of goods being shipped to the US goes through there. Not sure how much goes out, but the same principle applies. Canada can completely shut down US Great Lakes shipping traffic if they want to.

Iran has turned into a quagmire that is draining our defenses faster than we can replenish them. I know they've increased production, but it's still a serious problem, and it begs the question, "If attacking Iran and defending Middle East allies from Iranian drone and missile attacks has depleted our missile and ABM stockpiles in less than six months, what would happen if America had to defend itself from a real aggressor capable of projecting power across the globe?"

Cyber attacks on US utility infrastructure is at an all time high. US military commissaries are even reporting refrigerators connected to an online system have been mysteriously turned off at night over the past few days. 18 and counting so far.

These are some very serious strategic concerns, both militarily and economically. I'm not sure where this is going to end up, but I am absolutely certain it's going to end badly for the US.

Putin and Xi are watching all of this and they're seeing opportunities.
 
There are more pieces than that on the board now, though. Canada has had it with the US, and we've managed to piss them off to the point that it's affecting our ability to access data from our ground-based missile warning stations in Canada's Arctic. I've seen estimates as high as a 40% reduction in our early warning detection capabilities. We can still detect missile launches, but we can't see where they're going until they're less than 15 minutes away from their targets. Russia tested this almost immediately by sending four Bear bombers into Alaska's ADIZ. Standard protocol is to launch both Canadian and American fighters to intercept. Nobody knew what to do since Canada's Tier 1 status had been revoked, so they were allowed to approach without interception. They turned back on their own before actually crossing into Alaskan airspace.

There is a canal that all ships entering the Great Lakes must pass through. It is on Canadian territory and operated by Canadians. Over $20 Billion of goods being shipped to the US goes through there. Not sure how much goes out, but the same principle applies. Canada can completely shut down US Great Lakes shipping traffic if they want to.

Iran has turned into a quagmire that is draining our defenses faster than we can replenish them. I know they've increased production, but it's still a serious problem, and it begs the question, "If attacking Iran and defending Middle East allies from Iranian drone and missile attacks has depleted our missile and ABM stockpiles in less than six months, what would happen if America had to defend itself from a real aggressor capable of projecting power across the globe?"

Cyber attacks on US utility infrastructure is at an all time high. US military commissaries are even reporting refrigerators connected to an online system have been mysteriously turned off at night over the past few days. 18 and counting so far.

These are some very serious strategic concerns, both militarily and economically. I'm not sure where this is going to end up, but I am absolutely certain it's going to end badly for the US.

Putin and Xi are watching all of this and they're seeing opportunities.
Just absolutely wild. Makes me think of after we pulled out of Afghanistan and we looked weak to everyone, and we all know what happened next. I definitely do not like the direction everything is going here.
 
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Canada has had it with the US, and we've managed to piss them off to the point that it's affecting our ability to access data from our ground-based missile warning stations in Canada's Arctic.
I find it hard to believe Canada is deliberately causing information to be withheld.

What exactly is happening that is causing a 40% reduction in early warning detection?
 
I find it hard to believe Canada is deliberately causing information to be withheld.

What exactly is happening that is causing a 40% reduction in early warning detection?
Mr Director is correct. NORAD is a joint operation between the two countries. It would be pretty hard for Canada to stop anything while American military personnel are standing right next to them. Tango Delta Sierra
 
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