Putting It All Together

[Sentry]

That presumes Russia has designs on territory beyond what it is already seeking. Do you think Russia actually wants Finland or Germany or France?

Not Finland, Germany or France. But you'll have a hard time holding Europe back from taking Kaliningrad or from reopening the Suwalki gap that Russia will inevitably attempt to take.

 

[teekay99]

“No politics” It can be a hard line to tow. What is enforced are posts thst stray from the threads title whilst inspiring arguments of a partisan or political vein. Statements that are unsupported opinions presented as fact are subject to a hard look. I have to self delete about 60% of my own post as they run afoul.

Im glad you will reconsider. As you noted, IMO atm liberal opinion are getting rare. This is cyclical and seems to self correct. I enjoy your posts.

I like to encourage anyone with a minority opinion (by that I mean a position not shared by most people on the forum) to stay and continue to share and strengthen their position. It's the best way to ensure a minority voice is heard here. Leaving the forum ensures that voice is no longer heard here. Respectfully presented opposing points of view are an important part of a productive discussion.

One can objectively express an unpopular opinion on this forum free of partisan rancour and still receive respect from other forum members. I've seen it. I've experienced it from members, moderators and staff. So to anyone considering an exit, please reconsider.

That said, back on topic. I tend to agree with @Sentry . I think America's leadership and absence in Europe will be probed by Russia. That probing might provoke the EU or lead to an escalation that invariably draws-in the US. I think that's what @DEFCON Warning System may be alluding to with the statement "So this now depends on what Europe does."

 

[Sentry]

Belarusian Railway is facing a shortage of empty, serviceable general-purpose flat wagons with deck flooring. The reason is upcoming military rail movements.

"The shortage of platforms coincided with the next combat training event. From August 25 to September 10, the Armed Forces of Belarus hold operational-tactical exercises with branches of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. The second stage should take place at the Russian Ashuluk training ground, where live firing of aviation and anti-aircraft missile units is planned"

"According to sources, the shipments to Ashuluk explain only a small part of the current need for platforms and are not the cause of the resulting shortage. The remaining cars are allocated for other ongoing or upcoming military applications, the directions and composition of which have not yet been established"

На БЖД не хватает вагонов-платформ. Причина — воинские перевозки

 

[Sentry]

The Belarusian Railway is actively preparing a backup transportation management scheme in case of destruction of the main Transportation Management Center in Minsk.

БЖД готовит резервную схему управления перевозками на случай потери основного ЦУП

На Белорусской железной дороге ускорили подготовку резервной схемы управления перевозками на случай потери основного Центра управления перевозками в Минске. Если здание на Стекольном переулке будет уничтожено, серьёзно повреждено или надолго станет недоступным, дорожный диспетчерский аппарат...

belzhd.info

 

[william]

There are more pieces than that on the board now, though. Canada has had it with the US, and we've managed to piss them off to the point that it's affecting our ability to access data from our ground-based missile warning stations in Canada's Arctic. I've seen estimates as high as a 40% reduction in our early warning detection capabilities. We can still detect missile launches, but we can't see where they're going until they're less than 15 minutes away from their targets. Russia tested this almost immediately by sending four Bear bombers into Alaska's ADIZ. Standard protocol is to launch both Canadian and American fighters to intercept. Nobody knew what to do since Canada's Tier 1 status had been revoked, so they were allowed to approach without interception. They turned back on their own before actually crossing into Alaskan airspace.

There is a canal that all ships entering the Great Lakes must pass through. It is on Canadian territory and operated by Canadians. Over $20 Billion of goods being shipped to the US goes through there. Not sure how much goes out, but the same principle applies. Canada can completely shut down US Great Lakes shipping traffic if they want to.

You're right Canada could shut down the canal; however they would be breaking various treaties that date back to the 1800s.

Canada Tariff Biggest Threat To Great Lakes Since War Of 1812

If President Donald Trump's threat to tariff Canadian imports by 25% goes forward, 200 years of peaceful and profitable Great Lakes maritime trade will be at risk.

www.forbes.com

And the US would be sure to respond. Shut the water way? Fine.You’re not getting any gas.”Eastern Canada doesn’t refine enough of its own fuel. The crude goes south. The gasoline comes back north. Cut the line and the pumps in Ontario and Quebec go dry first.That’s not leverage. That’s mutually assured shortage.

Iran has turned into a quagmire that is draining our defenses faster than we can replenish them. I know they've increased production, but it's still a serious problem, and it begs the question, "If attacking Iran and defending Middle East allies from Iranian drone and missile attacks has depleted our missile and ABM stockpiles in less than six months, what would happen if America had to defend itself from a real aggressor capable of projecting power across the globe?"

I am an optimist and don't believe the stockpiles are as depleted as is being reported. As I stated in another post. The generals in the pentagon are not stupid enough to let the inventories go down to the level where the US can't defend itself.

Cyber attacks on US utility infrastructure is at an all time high. US military commissaries are even reporting refrigerators connected to an online system have been mysteriously turned off at night over the past few days. 18 and counting so far.

I'm pretty sure cyber-attacks run both ways.

These are some very serious strategic concerns, both militarily and economically. I'm not sure where this is going to end up, but I am absolutely certain it's going to end badly for the US.

Is it possible that American resilience and ingenuity will make it end badly for them? Uncle Sam can be knocked down but he is pretty tough and WILL get back up. Don' t count him out just yet.

Putin and Xi are watching all of this and they're seeing opportunities.

Yes, they are. So what should the US do? Nothing, and let Russia and China run roughshod of us?

 

[william]

Belarusian Railway is facing a shortage of empty, serviceable general-purpose flat wagons with deck flooring. The reason is upcoming military rail movements.

"The shortage of platforms coincided with the next combat training event. From August 25 to September 10, the Armed Forces of Belarus hold operational-tactical exercises with branches of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. The second stage should take place at the Russian Ashuluk training ground, where live firing of aviation and anti-aircraft missile units is planned"

"According to sources, the shipments to Ashuluk explain only a small part of the current need for platforms and are not the cause of the resulting shortage. The remaining cars are allocated for other ongoing or upcoming military applications, the directions and composition of which have not yet been established"

На БЖД не хватает вагонов-платформ. Причина — воинские перевозки

Training event or staging for combat? This needs to be watched.

 

[GBS61]

Russia and China run roughshod of us?

In my opinion, they don't need to trample you; you're capable on your own, that's already a start, and besides, it's free for them.

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

Training event or staging for combat? This needs to be watched.

Could be connected to the recent readiness check that Lukashenko had done after Ratcliffe’s visit, which I read wasn’t connected. If Russia was involved, I’d be a bit worried, but since it’s just Belarus I’m really not.

 

[william]

The Department of War has confirmed that at least seven U.S. military commissaries have reported refrigeration problems this week, including facilities at Fort Irwin, Holloman AFB, Naval Station Newport, Little Rock AFB, F.E. Warren AFB, Robins AFB and Fort Huachuca. The below photos were posted by Fort Irwin to social media.

The cause remains unknown. Some online speculation has suggested a coordinated cyberattack or deliberate disruption of network connected refrigeration systems, but there is currently no official evidence presented in the article supporting that explanation. DoD specifically declined to speculate on the cause or say whether the outages are being investigated as a connected incident.

RiffRaffs statement is confirmed. The pentagon is not claiming a cyber-attack though it most likely was. IMO

https://twitter.com/x/status/2093882100294259078

 

[william]

In my opinion, they don't need to trample you; you're capable on your own, that's already a start, and besides, it's free for them.

A CNBC anchor said this week that Canadians deserve a better standard of living, and that it should not be going backwards over a ten year stretch. Here are the numbers underneath it. OECD long-run projections put Canada's real GDP per capita growth at about 0.7% a year from 2020 to 2030. That is the slowest of all 38 member countries, tied with Italy. It is roughly 46% below the OECD average and about 42% behind the United States. The projection for the thirty years after that is 0.8%.Nobody voted for that. There was no bill, no vote, no announcement.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2094100457727701226

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=1f2d...Y3RlZCtHRFArR3Jvd3RoLiZmb3JtPUNTQlJBTkQ&ntb=1

Canada Ranked 38th in OECD Projected GDP Growth​

Canada has been placed 38th out of 38 OECD members in terms of projected real GDP per capita growth, according to the latest OECD and IMF data . This ranking reflects the country’s weakest long-term growth according to the latest OECD and IMF data.

Why Canada is at the Bottom​

• Low productivity growth: The OECD identifies slow labor productivity gains as the central challenge. Canada is forecast to have the weakest productivity growth among advanced economies for the next four decades
• Population growth vs. GDP growth: Immigration has expanded Canada’s population faster than GDP, keeping per capita growth low. Between 2020 and 2024, per capita GDP actually declined by 2%, the sharpest five-year drop since the 1930s
• Capital investment stagnation: Business capital investment has remained subdued since the 2014 oil price collapse, limiting capital available per worker
• Global headwinds: The IMF projects Canada’s GDP growth in 2025 at just 1.4%, down from 1.5% in 2024, citing trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and global slowdown

Historical Context​

• From 2015 to 2024, Canada’s real GDP per capita growth (adjusted for purchasing power parity) was only 2.1%, placing it 37th out of 38 OECD countries
• In the five years to 2019, Canada’s real GDP per capita grew by just 3% (0.5% annually), the 4th weakest performance among OECD nations
• Long-term OECD projections show Canada’s per capita GDP growth will remain near 0.7% annually through 2030, tied with Italy, and 0.8% from 2030 to 2060

Implications​

• Living standards: Young Canadians entering the labor market may face largely stagnant real wages, a sharp contrast to earlier generations’ rising living standards
• Economic policy: The combination of low productivity growth, high population growth, and global headwinds suggests Canada will need targeted investments in innovation, skills, and capital formation to close the gap with other OECD members.

In short, Canada’s 38th-place ranking is the result of structural and demographic factors, compounded by global economic headwinds, and points to a long-term challenge in sustaining per capita growth. Copilot

 

[GBS61]

This has nothing to do with this thread. What is the moderation team doing? Nothing.

 

[william]

100% this

Europe should be able to stand on its own. Their GDP is the equivalent to the USAs.

 

[william]

This has nothing to do with this thread. What is the moderation team doing? Nothing.

Just pointing out Russia and China are more apt to trample Canada rather than the US. Here's an example.

CBSA JUST CONFIRMED IT

Canadian plywood producers warned for months: China is dumping cheap, subsidized plywood into Canada.Ottawa’s response? “America’s tariffs are unfair.”Then their own agency dropped the findings:• Dumped? Yes.• Subsidized? Yes.• Temporary duties now in effect, up to 227.5% on many Chinese exporters.This is the second investigation. Canadian mills were already losing sales and jobs.When your own border agency says the industry was right and China was cheating, maybe stop lecturing the Americans. Protect Canadian workers first.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2094133846199750813

 

[RiffRaff]

This has nothing to do with this thread. What is the moderation team doing? Nothing.

His comments are contributing to the ongoing discussion and he hasn't broken any forum rules. The moderation team is doing exactly what they should be doing.

 

[Publius]

That last comment is not even worth dignifying with a response, and it's clear you don't pay much attention to my posts.

However, I do need to walk back one item; Canada's officers are still working alongside US officers as you said. The report I saw quoting the 40% has since been deleted, so it was obviously false.

That being said, the US needs Canada for strategic defense a lot more than Canada needs the US. Most strategic targets on Canadian soil involve NORAD in some way, so they are more American targets than Canadian; they just happen to be on Canadian soil. Plus, the US has shown Canada repeatedly that they are not a reliable partner. Canadians, like Americans, also have their own political divisions, although they are not nearly as severe nor are they as obvious. However, the US has managed to rally Canadians from all points along the political spectrum and they are all pissed at the United States over recent behavior. This includes their PM.

Canada is the US's second largest trading partner, even over China, and as mentioned earlier, key allies in American strategic defense. Americans and Canadians have enjoyed almost seamless border crossings both ways for decades. The US and Canada share one of the longest unprotected international borders in the world. Now their social media is flooded with "buy Canadian" videos and memes.

Canadians fought alongside Americans in World War 1. They fought alongside Americans in World War 2. They fought alongside Americans in the Korean War. They fought alongside Americans in the Vietnam War. They were responsible for helping bring home six Americans who had evaded capture during the 1979 hostage crisis at the American embassy in Tehran. They fought alongside Americans in Iraq. They responded to the Article 5 declaration after the US was attacked on 9/11 and fought alongside Americans in Afghanistan.

Why in the name of all that's unholy would we want to antagonize them by minimizing their role in most of America's wars - not theirs - and disrespecting Canadians who died in those wars? Can you provide me with a single valid reason why any sitting American administration should be engaging in this kind of behavior with an ally who has joined America in fighting wars for over a century? Please justify that for me. I'll wait.

And if Canada and Europe were actually so scared of Russian aggression they might play better with their ally who own the nuclear deterrent.

Which they still are
last week NORAD and Canada HELD JOINT missile defense drills. And their is no degradation of data or early warning information sharing.

US and Canadian forces practise cruise missile defence

NORAD and US Northern Command are running Exercise Amalgam Dart across North America until 1 September, covering cruise missile defence scenarios and coordination with allied forces in the Arctic.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

So much for this…

piss them off to the point that it's affecting our ability to access data from our ground-based missile warning stations in Canada's Arctic.

 

[Publius]

Not Finland, Germany or France. But you'll have a hard time holding Europe back from taking Kaliningrad or from reopening the Suwalki gap that Russia will inevitably attempt to take.

Inevitably? Got a source even a marginally reputable expert claiming this?

 

[Publius]

Can we please stow the political hype?

Latvia's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs came out more forcefully to downplay fears.

"I want to clearly tell the people of Latvia: there is currently no reason for concern. Latvia's level of military threat has not changed. The risk of direct military invasion threats to Latvia is currently low," Kulberg said.

"Readiness for a possible threat is not the same as an immediate threat. These two things must not be confused."

Baltics assessment of Russia threat 'unchanged' after CIA director's Moscow visit

"The threat posed by Russia and possible provocations against NATO must be taken seriously, and that is precisely what the allies are doing," Estonia's Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told the Kyiv In...

www.yahoo.com

Good grief if Latvia isn’t freaking out.

You might want to check your sources for political biases

 

[Torch]

That presumes Russia has designs on territory beyond what it is already seeking. Do you think Russia actually wants Finland or Germany or France?

Yes. Yes. Yes.
1st. Finland.
2 major wars, several minor skirmishes

2nd Germany.
Two World wars against, one world war with.

3rd France
Maybe, maybe not. Hard to get to.

 

[peterould]

Europe should be able to stand on its own. Their GDP is the equivalent to the USAs.

And yet we are even stronger together

 

[william]

Yes. Yes. Yes.
1st. Finland.
2 major wars, several minor skirmishes

2nd Germany.
Two World wars against, one world war with.

3rd France
Maybe, maybe not. Hard to get to.

I agree, I think the question is, can they?