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🕵️‍♂️ | UA-NATO/RU | Crisis Environment | REPORTS

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda on Russia: In all but name, Russia has already lost the war. Yet, its leadership does not allow itself to admit defeat, fearing international legal accountability and possible revenge from its own people. As the inevitable approaches, the stakes get higher and the Kremlin regime increasingly finds itself cornered.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/2102463444310000078
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U.S. confirms deployment of a new rotation of troops to Lithuania. The size of the new contingent has not yet been disclosed. Since 2019, the U.S. has usually stationed a tank battalion of about 1,000 troops in Lithuania. Nauseda’s adviser Kęstutis Budrys said that the number of U.S. troops in Lithuania is “returning to high levels.”
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https://twitter.com/x/status/2102513266626843118
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www.euronews.com

New rotation of US troops bound for Lithuania: Lithuanian president

It comes despite repeated threats from US President Donald Trump to reduce the US' military presence in Europe.
www.euronews.com www.euronews.com
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***ADDITIONAL INFO ☝️***

We inform that on September 23 this year at 11:08 a.m., north of the town of Braniewo, there was a brief violation of the airspace of the Republic of Poland by an Mi-8 helicopter of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

The helicopter was conducting a flight from the Kaliningrad Oblast. It violated Polish airspace to a maximum depth of approximately 300 m and remained in it for 42 seconds.

The flight of the machine was observed by the radio-location systems of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland. Fighter aircraft were scrambled, and ground-based forces and assets remained on standby.

The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is once again testing the readiness of our air defense.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/2102723364439679215
 
Unconfirmed

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Poland has ordered the evacuation of two locations near the Ukrainian border following a Russian strike in western Ukraine, as Warsaw takes additional precautions against the risk of the war spilling across NATO territory.The evacuation covers areas near the Zosin border crossing in Hrubieszów County and Dorohusk. Poland also placed its military aviation on full readiness and scrambled fighter aircraft in response to the Russian attack. This marks the sixth time in just 10 days that Polish military aircraft have been activated because of Russian strikes against Ukraine.The frequency of these alerts is becoming increasingly significant. Poland is no longer treating Russian strikes close to its frontier as isolated episodes, with repeated fighter deployments and now precautionary evacuations showing how directly the continuing attacks in western Ukraine are affecting security measures on the Polish side of the border.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2103103584703262915
 
Latvia’s State Border Guard says newly installed surveillance infrastructure along the country’s eastern border has been deliberately sabotaged. Cables have been cut, distribution cabinets damaged and surveillance equipment targeted in what Border Guard chief Guntis Pujāts describes as “not random vandalism” but targeted action intended to disrupt border monitoring and delay deployment.
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Latvian authorities describe the wider activity along the Russian and Belarusian borders as aggressor-state-supported provocations. No individual perpetrators have publicly been identified.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/2103779664741212396
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⚠️🇬🇧🧨
RELATED THREAD:
NuclearID

Thread '⚠️ BREAKING UPDATE| RAF Fairford Incident: No Explosives Found'

🇬🇧🇺🇸🧨✈️
WHAT WE KNOW & WHAT IS CONFIRMED/SOURCED:
UK authorities declared a major incident in Whelford beside RAF Fairford on Sept. 27 after several men were arrested on suspicion of Explosives Act offences. Army EOD is examining several vehicles. Police say the incident is contained, but have not disclosed what was found, whether an explosive device was recovered, suspect identities or motives, whether Fairford was the intended target, or any terrorism link.

Local reporting places the operation at around 01:00 BST. Footage shows at least four men detained at...
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🆕 Putin orders army expansion as Zelenskyy warns Russia preparing to deploy 10,000 North Korean troops​

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KEY POINTS
  • Putin has ordered Russia’s armed forces to expand to 2.44 million personnel, including 1.55 million active servicemen, adding 15,500 troops.
  • The decree marks the fourth increase in Russia’s military staffing levels this year as the war in Ukraine continues into another winter.
  • Zelenskyy says Russia has begun an additional mobilization push and claims more than 8,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, with another 10,000 being prepared for deployment.
www.cnbc.com

Putin orders army expansion as Zelenskyy warns Russia preparing to deploy 10,000 North Korean troops

The decree marks the fourth increase in Russia’s military staffing levels this year as the war in Ukraine continues into a fifth winter.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
alphaecho said:
Unconfirmed

BREAKING |
🇵🇱
🇷🇺
🇺🇦
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Poland has ordered the evacuation of two locations near the Ukrainian border following a Russian strike in western Ukraine, as Warsaw takes additional precautions against the risk of the war spilling across NATO territory.The evacuation covers areas near the Zosin border crossing in Hrubieszów County and Dorohusk. Poland also placed its military aviation on full readiness and scrambled fighter aircraft in response to the Russian attack. This marks the sixth time in just 10 days that Polish military aircraft have been activated because of Russian strikes against Ukraine.The frequency of these alerts is becoming increasingly significant. Poland is no longer treating Russian strikes close to its frontier as isolated episodes, with repeated fighter deployments and now precautionary evacuations showing how directly the continuing attacks in western Ukraine are affecting security measures on the Polish side of the border.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2103103584703262915
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Poland will allow aerial targets to be shot down without visual contact. The military is changing its rules on the use of force against suspicious airborne objects to react faster. In the coming days, Polish fighters and helicopters will be able to open fire without visually confirming the target if the combined data indicates it is hostile, the Defense Ministry said.
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Gee, what could go wrong with this policy! 👆
https://twitter.com/x/status/2104946700620026158
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  • Poland's Defense Ministry is updating rules of engagement so pilots and commanders can shoot down suspicious aerial objects using radar data, no-fly zone violations, and allied intelligence without requiring visual confirmation, enabling faster responses to threats.
  • The change follows repeated Russian-linked airspace incidents, including a Mi-8 helicopter from Kaliningrad briefly violating Polish territory on September 23, amid daily concerns over drones and missiles tied to the Ukraine war.
  • Polish F-35 fighters and helicopters will implement "positive identification" protocols typically reserved for wartime, reflecting heightened NATO frontline readiness along the eastern border.
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william said:
Gee, what could go wrong with this policy! 👆
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Nothing, because the media of course has covered this "news" in the most shitty and confusing possible way.

It's not like that they will shoot down anything suspicious that appears on the radars, they just won't need to perform VID once PID provides clear identification of a threat like a missile or a drone.

This is well explained on this post from the Polish Deputy Minister of National Defence (translate using X if you don't read Polish):
https://twitter.com/x/status/2104498438993809429
 
Swedish police have reportedly been alerted to a pattern involving travelers arriving by ferry from former Soviet countries who claim they are coming to Scandinavia for fishing but allegedly arrive without any fishing equipment.
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According to Aftonbladet, some of the travelers have Russian citizenship, often alongside another nationality, and reportedly arrive carrying multiple mobile phones, payment cards, cash, drones and other cameras.
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Some are also reportedly unable to provide a clear travel itinerary or bookings showing where they will stay or how they will travel around Scandinavia. Aftonbladet says internal documents seen by the newspaper show that Swedish border and maritime police have noticed the pattern and that relevant police units have been urged to remain alert to these types of travelers.
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The reported equipment also includes new backpacks, watches and electric toothbrushes, :ROFLMAO: according to the documents. Swedish police have not confirmed the specific details of the reported pattern. In a statement to Aftonbladet, police said they do not comment on specific methods used by border and maritime police, but that they cooperate and share information with several other authorities.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/2105018730530922812
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Charmender said:
Nothing, because the media of course has covered this "news" in the most shitty and confusing possible way.

It's not like that they will shoot down anything suspicious that appears on the radars, they just won't need to perform VID once PID provides clear identification of a threat like a missile or a drone.

This is well explained on this post from the Polish Deputy Minister of National Defence (translate using X if you don't read Polish):
https://twitter.com/x/status/2104498438993809429
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Translation:
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Poland is changing the procedures for the use of armaments by aviation in the event of countering foreign aircraft. These are the conclusions of the Operational Commander, General Ireneusz Nowak, from recent weeks.This is also a response to the growing threat from Russia, experiences from the war in Ukraine, and the emergence of new air attack means—primarily fast jet drones and cruise missiles.
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In their case, the time for reaction is very short.The essence of the change is simple: we are moving away from the situation where opening fire requires visual identification—VID. We want so-called positive identification—PID—to be sufficient. This is a very important distinction. "Positive identification" must stem from several pieces of information that together allow for a sufficiently high degree of certainty in determining what we are dealing with. This could be the direction from which the object violated the border, the lack of a proper IFF response, correlation of the same target by different radars, its speed, altitude, trajectory, or flight parameters characteristic of a cruise missile or drone. Why is this so complicated? Because we are in peacetime.
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In wartime conditions, the situation looks different. An object classified as hostile can be engaged from many kilometers away, without the need for direct visual confirmation from the aircraft. This is why modern radars, command systems, and beyond-visual-range armaments exist. But even during war, the principle of "shoot down anything that's not ours" does not apply. Target identification remains crucial.
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In peacetime, its importance is even greater. In Polish airspace, there are passenger planes, light aircraft, helicopters, our military aircraft, and allied state machines. There could be transponder failures, loss of communication, disruptions in satellite navigation systems, or other emergency situations. Such rules must also protect our pilots. A Polish or allied aircraft may, due to a malfunction, communication or navigation interference, find itself in an unusual location, including near the border. The lack of an IFF response or an unusual trajectory alone cannot therefore automatically mean classifying the object as hostile. The sum of this data is precisely positive identification.
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The second element is appropriate airspace management. If we want to abandon mandatory visual identification, we must minimize the risk of error to the maximum extent. This is served by the ability to designate a no-fly zone for aviation and to organize the movement of our own and civilian aircraft.The mere presence of an object in such a zone does not yet automatically mean a decision to open fire. It is one of the elements of the overall situational picture.This is precisely the point of this change: not less identification, but a different way of conducting it.Faster and based on data from multiple sources.This also matters because air defense is not just fighters.
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The target is detected by sensors, data is compared, identification occurs, and then the means that can effectively engage it are selected. In a properly prepared zone, these could be ground-based air defense systems—Patriot, Poprad, or Osa. If the target passes through this layer, aviation remains. We must see earlier, know more, and make decisions faster. But use armaments only when target identification provides a basis for it. New challenges require changes. As I said. The Polish Army keeps its finger on the pulse and on the trigger.
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Sounds good but if you're relying on sensors that can be jammed you still could have a bad shoot down. Last I heard there was allot of that happening there. IMO.
 
william said:
Sounds good but if you're relying on sensors that can be jammed you still could have a bad shoot down. Last I heard there was allot of that happening there. IMO.
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Radar jamming and GPS jamming are two different things.
This polish policy change is aimed primarily at intercepting (and eventually downing) drones and missiles as soon as they cross the border.
A jammed radar simply won't detect it....GPS position (which can be spoofed at worst) has nothing to do with PID...any other possibility is just sci-fi when it comes to this.

This is the 20320th nothingburger being sold to fuel the discussion over Ukraine on the general media...stating that an incident can occur due to this policy change, as some outlet tried indirectly to imply by mentioning the helicopter who violated the polish border on the last days, is against good faith's logics.
 
See, my fear with a situation like this is not what NATO actually does, but what Russia *perceives* them of doing, i.e. Eastern Sentry, expanded nuclear sharing in the Baltics, etc. any one of these I feel could be seen by the Russians as a move against Kaliningrad, even though it isn’t—or am I just worrying too much?

united24media.com

Russia Sends NATO Formal Nuclear Warning Over Kaliningrad

Moscow warned NATO in a diplomatic note that any attempt to isolate Kaliningrad could trigger strikes on alliance states and possible nuclear weapons use.
united24media.com united24media.com
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
See, my fear with a situation like this is not what NATO actually does, but what Russia *perceives* them of doing, i.e. Eastern Sentry, expanded nuclear sharing in the Baltics, etc. any one of these I feel could be seen by the Russians as a move against Kaliningrad, even though it isn’t—or am I just worrying too much?

united24media.com

Russia Sends NATO Formal Nuclear Warning Over Kaliningrad

Moscow warned NATO in a diplomatic note that any attempt to isolate Kaliningrad could trigger strikes on alliance states and possible nuclear weapons use.
united24media.com united24media.com
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No, you're not worrying too much. Able Archer 83 proves the point.
 
Charmender said:
Radar jamming and GPS jamming are two different things.
This polish policy change is aimed primarily at intercepting (and eventually downing) drones and missiles as soon as they cross the border.
A jammed radar simply won't detect it....GPS position (which can be spoofed at worst) has nothing to do with PID...any other possibility is just sci-fi when it comes to this.

This is the 20320th nothingburger being sold to fuel the discussion over Ukraine on the general media...stating that an incident can occur due to this policy change, as some outlet tried indirectly to imply by mentioning the helicopter who violated the polish border on the last days, is against good faith's logics.
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If radars are jammed and GPS is spoofed how exactly are you going to PID something without human eyes looking at it? I don't think this is a nothing burger myself. Now I could be wrong. It's been known to happen. 😃 Russian missiles and drones do seem to be tracked pretty well by sensors so if we're just talking about an errant drone, missile or aircraft that's one thing, but a coordinated attack by russia would be presided by heavy ecteronic interference of all types don't you think.
www.c4isrnet.com

Electronic warfare in Ukraine has lessons for US weapons, navigation

Washington and other governments have committed billions of dollars of aid to Ukraine, including armored vehicles and secure communication devices.
www.c4isrnet.com www.c4isrnet.com
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www.c4isrnet.com

Project Overmatch’s Small says EW is ‘killer app’ for unmanned tech

The Navy is investing in unmanned systems — on the water, as well as above and below it — to augment existing and near-future firepower.
www.c4isrnet.com www.c4isrnet.com
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gpsjam.org

GPSJAM GPS/GNSS Interference Map

Maps showing daily possible GPS interference.
gpsjam.org gpsjam.org
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Polish Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Teams are responding to a possible incident at a military base in Nowa Dęba, Poland tonight, following the arrival of a mysterious package which upon being opened caused skin irritation to two military police officers and a civilian employee. Over 130 military personnel and other staff have been evacuation as a precaution, with officials telling RMF FM that the package arrived in an envelope from Germany.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2105397243478233579
 
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