| UA-RU WAR | NATO Crisis | ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION

[Snowfall]

^ I presume the context of the Russian threat is associated with this NATO exercise back in August....

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/nato-holds-air-exercise-near-russias-kaliningrad-region/4032236

NATO holds air exercise near Russia's Kaliningrad region​

NATO conducted a planned air exercise above northeastern Poland near Russia's Kaliningrad region Tuesday, according to Polish broadcaster TVP World.

The exercise involved US and Norwegian fighter jets, a NATO E-3A Sentry AWACS surveillance aircraft, aerial-refueling tankers and a US EA-37B electronic-warfare aircraft. Estimates of the number of aircraft involved ranged from about 25 to 50. The reported concept includes potential strikes against missile and air-defense systems in the Kaliningrad region.

NATO has increased military exercises around the strategically important Suwalki Gap, a narrow stretch of territory connecting Poland and Lithuania between Kaliningrad and Belarus.

I think it’s more so the fact a couple politicians, mainly ones who have no real authority, have made threats against Kaliningrad if Russia does something stupid, so the Kremlin probably felt the need to act tough back. The exercises in combination probably don’t help Russia’s view of the situation. I read about this yesterday morning, not sure why it’s spreading so much today.

 

[Charmender]

I think it’s more so the fact a couple politicians, mainly ones who have no real authority, have made threats against Kaliningrad if Russia does something stupid, so the Kremlin probably felt the need to act tough back. The exercises in combination probably don’t help Russia’s view of the situation. I read about this yesterday morning, not sure why it’s spreading so much today.

Cause there's no real news to fuel the discussion over fried air.

 

[Charmender]

As it was imaginable, and as we have seen happening countless of times...Peskov downplayed the whole Kaliningrad rethoric.

Russia’s warning about the consequences of attempts to blockade Kaliningrad should not be regarded as a confrontational statement, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports.

He emphasized that the warning was made against the backdrop of Europe’s ongoing militarization.

Kremlin does not consider nuclear warning to Europe over Kaliningrad confrontational

Russia’s warning about the consequences of attempts to blockade Kaliningrad should not be regarded as a confrontational statement, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports

en.apa.az

Russia's warning to NATO about Moscow's potential response, with its full arsenal, should it attempt to blockade Kaliningrad "should not be interpreted as a confrontational statement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, quoted by Tass. "In what context are these statements being made? In the context of the ongoing and rather rapid militarization of Europe and European states."

Guerra Ucraina - Russia, news. Ue: “Condanniamo la retorica nucleare irresponsabile di Mosca”

Cremlino: “Allerta su Kaliningrad non era dichiarazione conflittuale". Droni russi colpiscono importante ponte a Kiev

www.repubblica.it

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Russia's warning to NATO about Moscow's potential response, with its full arsenal, should it attempt to blockade Kaliningrad "should not be interpreted as a confrontational statement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, quoted by Tass.

I tend to agree with Russia on that. It was more a general statement than a direct threat of escalation. We all know Russia will defend its territory with nukes.

 

[Charmender]

I tend to agree with Russia on that. It was more a general statement than a direct threat of escalation. We all know Russia will defend its territory with nukes.

Indeed, the thing is...it's a whole story built over something which isn't new at all, especially once compared to threats (even more direct) made during the latest 5 years.

 

[Charmender]

As it was imaginable, and as we have seen happening countless of times...Peskov downplayed the whole Kaliningrad rethoric.

Russia’s warning about the consequences of attempts to blockade Kaliningrad should not be regarded as a confrontational statement, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports.

He emphasized that the warning was made against the backdrop of Europe’s ongoing militarization.

Kremlin does not consider nuclear warning to Europe over Kaliningrad confrontational

Russia’s warning about the consequences of attempts to blockade Kaliningrad should not be regarded as a confrontational statement, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports

en.apa.az

Russia's warning to NATO about Moscow's potential response, with its full arsenal, should it attempt to blockade Kaliningrad "should not be interpreted as a confrontational statement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, quoted by Tass. "In what context are these statements being made? In the context of the ongoing and rather rapid militarization of Europe and European states."

Guerra Ucraina - Russia, news. Ue: “Condanniamo la retorica nucleare irresponsabile di Mosca”

Cremlino: “Allerta su Kaliningrad non era dichiarazione conflittuale". Droni russi colpiscono importante ponte a Kiev

www.repubblica.it

Why has this been moved to Discussion? @DEFCON Warning System
This belongs to the report thread.

 

[Irag8er]

Why has this been moved to Discussion? @DEFCON Warning System
This belongs to the report thread.

Because that post is part of a lengthy DISCUSSION.
The actual threat remains in the REPORTS thread
If this response is unsatisfactory, please file a report and I will defer to the other mods.

 

[Snowfall]

As it was imaginable, and as we have seen happening countless of times...Peskov downplayed the whole Kaliningrad rethoric.

Russia’s warning about the consequences of attempts to blockade Kaliningrad should not be regarded as a confrontational statement, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports.

He emphasized that the warning was made against the backdrop of Europe’s ongoing militarization.

Kremlin does not consider nuclear warning to Europe over Kaliningrad confrontational

Russia’s warning about the consequences of attempts to blockade Kaliningrad should not be regarded as a confrontational statement, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports

en.apa.az

Russia's warning to NATO about Moscow's potential response, with its full arsenal, should it attempt to blockade Kaliningrad "should not be interpreted as a confrontational statement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, quoted by Tass. "In what context are these statements being made? In the context of the ongoing and rather rapid militarization of Europe and European states."

Guerra Ucraina - Russia, news. Ue: “Condanniamo la retorica nucleare irresponsabile di Mosca”

Cremlino: “Allerta su Kaliningrad non era dichiarazione conflittuale". Droni russi colpiscono importante ponte a Kiev

www.repubblica.it

It’s the same cycle Russia always does: make a threat to draw attention and backlash, gets attention and backlash, withdraw the threat and gaslight everyone telling them it wasn’t a threat in the first place.

 

[william]

I tend to agree with Russia on that. It was more a general statement than a direct threat of escalation. We all know Russia will defend its territory with nukes.

This is what makes me nervous. Putin wants to reconstitute the USSR and believes Ukraine is part of russia. Even the Baltics, Poland and East Germany for that matter.

 

[william]

As it was imaginable, and as we have seen happening countless of times...Peskov downplayed the whole Kaliningrad rethoric.

Russia’s warning about the consequences of attempts to blockade Kaliningrad should not be regarded as a confrontational statement, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports.

He emphasized that the warning was made against the backdrop of Europe’s ongoing militarization.

Kremlin does not consider nuclear warning to Europe over Kaliningrad confrontational

Russia’s warning about the consequences of attempts to blockade Kaliningrad should not be regarded as a confrontational statement, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, APA’s Moscow bureau reports

en.apa.az

Russia's warning to NATO about Moscow's potential response, with its full arsenal, should it attempt to blockade Kaliningrad "should not be interpreted as a confrontational statement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, quoted by Tass. "In what context are these statements being made? In the context of the ongoing and rather rapid militarization of Europe and European states."

Guerra Ucraina - Russia, news. Ue: “Condanniamo la retorica nucleare irresponsabile di Mosca”

Cremlino: “Allerta su Kaliningrad non era dichiarazione conflittuale". Droni russi colpiscono importante ponte a Kiev

www.repubblica.it

Is it possible that Europe wouldn't be mobilizing if russia hadn't invaded it's neighbor and constantly makes threats about using nuclear weapons. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck.

 

[Charmender]

Is it possible that Europe wouldn't be mobilizing if russia hadn't invaded it's neighbor and constantly makes threats about using nuclear weapons. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck.

Well the threat from Russia exists.
It's the sizing of it which is being hyperinflated (by the media)...governments are always working on contingencies for any kind of scenario, in any case, everywhere and everytime.
Plus there's the US which is legitimately pushing NATO members to spend 5% of the GDP.
What is Europe doing is finally spending more in defence rather then preparing for a war.

 

[Charmender]

Because that post is part of a lengthy DISCUSSION.
The actual threat remains in the REPORTS thread
If this response is unsatisfactory, please file a report and I will defer to the other mods.

You literally moved the only post which contained up to date information regarding the whole Kaliningrad story.

 

[Irag8er]

You literally moved the only post which contained up to date information regarding the whole Kaliningrad story.

View attachment 9300

And now it is here as the CORE of the ongoing discussion.

 

[GBS61]

This is what makes me nervous. Putin wants to reconstitute the USSR and believes Ukraine is part of russia. Even the Baltics, Poland and East Germany for that matter.

Poland and East Germany were never part of the USSR; they were part of the Warsaw Pact.

The Warsaw Pact, a military alliance created in 1955 to counterbalance NATO during the Cold War, had eight founding member countries from the Eastern Bloc:

• Soviet Union (USSR)
• German Democratic Republic (GDR / East Germany) (until 1990, just before German reunification)
• People's Republic of Poland
• Socialist Republic of Czechoslovakia
• People's Republic of Hungary
• People's Republic of Romania
• People's Republic of Bulgaria
• People's Republic of Albania (which officially withdrew from the alliance in 1968)

 

[william]

Poland and East Germany were never part of the USSR; they were part of the Warsaw Pact.

The Warsaw Pact, a military alliance created in 1955 to counterbalance NATO during the Cold War, had eight founding member countries from the Eastern Bloc:

• Soviet Union (USSR)
• German Democratic Republic (GDR / East Germany) (until 1990, just before German reunification)
• People's Republic of Poland
• Socialist Republic of Czechoslovakia
• People's Republic of Hungary
• People's Republic of Romania
• People's Republic of Bulgaria
• People's Republic of Albania (which officially withdrew from the alliance in 1968)

True but I consider the Warsaw Pact a part of the USSR. (Installed pro russian governments) which I believe putin would like to do if he can, again.

 

[william]

Well the threat from Russia exists.
It's the sizing of it which is being hyperinflated (by the media)...governments are always working on contingencies for any kind of scenario, in any case, everywhere and everytime. I agree with this statement.
Plus there's the US which is legitimately pushing NATO members to spend 5% of the GDP. This allso.
What is Europe doing is finally spending more in defence rather then preparing for a war. This not so much. Isn't inreased defense spending preparing for war.

 

[Charmender]

Agreed to disagree but I'm sorry but you're not preparing for a war by increasing the military expenditure to 3.5% GDP (maybe) in 6-7 years (maybe never going to happen in most of the southern europe), when the starting point is the current status of the european military (bad).
Like...Italy just cut 6 billion euros of expenditure from the military budget of 2027.

Plus, there's no concurrent REAL preparation of the general population for wartime, and any idea of the return of yearly conscription is such a taboo for every political party, that it's not even being spelled on a tissue inside the toilets of politicians...besides propaganda-like actions like distributing leaflets with a guide about how to survive 72h in case of an "emergency".

Of course these are all opinions, we don't know what's gonna be doing France in 2030, or Italy, or Germany or the UK.
Just, it's more likely that with major elections approaching in all of these countries, we will have far more pro-russian govts being elected in Europe, given the deep economical crisis that is building up in the EU due to the combination of the UKR and ME crisis.

Besides the 4 above mentioned countries, the rest really has little weight on the decision making processes in the EU.

Good or not, that will be entirely depending on each own personal interpretation.