🗣️ | Middle East War | Full Scale War Still Seems Imminent as Deterrence Erodes & Brinkmanship Intensifies | ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION

[Loadstain]

No matter which side wins the midterms, President Trump may decide he has nothing to lose by going all in on destroying Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

 

[teekay99]

No matter which side wins the midterms, President Trump may decide he has nothing to lose by going all in on destroying Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

No doubt. I just wish this was a decision he arrived at back in February after the regime's leadership was decapitated and confusion/uncertainty reigned inside the IRGC military hierarchy.

At this point, their military has organizationally recovered to some degree, and they likely have a defense plan to execute with a redefined chain of command. I'm not saying it will be successfully executed. But it will certainly make US-led invasions or ground operations more difficult then one night have been long ago.

 

[RiffRaff]

North Korea has shown us that containment of rogue regimes actively seeking nuclear weapons doesn't work.

On the flip side of that, Ukraine and Libya have shown the rest of the world that halting their pursuit or possession of nuclear weapons through negotiation with the US will always come back to bite them in the ass.

If our goal is to prevent the Iranian regime from getting nuclear weapons (something President Trump has clearly stated more than once), then IMO, regime change of some kind must occur.

Because that worked so well for the US in Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan, just to name a few. We can't even get Democracy to function properly in our own country. Why do we think trying to export it to other countries will function there?

Up to this point in the conflict, the American political leadership has not demonstrated a clear will to commit the necessary mix of forces to the theatre to bring about regime change. And with a looming change in the majority party in Congress, this is not likely to change anytime soon in the absence of a substantial escalatory act from Iran. So it looks like it's going to be containment by default coupled with an Iranian regime highly motivated to get the bomb... A clear recipe for American success (/sarcasm)

Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

[teekay99]

On the flip side of that, Ukraine and Libya have shown the rest of the world that halting their pursuit or possession of nuclear weapons through negotiation with the US will always come back to bite them in the ass.

True. No argument

Because that worked so well for the US in Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan, just to name a few. We can't even get Democracy to function properly in our own country. Why do we think trying to export it to other countries will function there?

I argue for regime change. Not nation building.
The foundations of democracy exist within Iran - there is voting even though candidate choice is constrained by the Ayatollah. So, I would like to present the following hypothetical, likely unrealistic argument. Suppose the US launches an effective military operation with the correct mix of forces required to eliminate the rest of the regime, subduing the remaining elements of the IGRC, and destroying remaining military capability. Suppose this swift action brings the Iranian civilian government to the negotiation table sans Supreme Leader. What if a peace treaty between the United States and Iran had two main components?

1. Iran agrees to never pursue nuclear weapons
2. Iran agrees to drop the Supreme Leader and IRGC. The existing civilian government remains in charge at the top of the leadership structure. The Supreme Leader, the IRGC, and related government entities are deleted from the government hierarchy and its legal framework.

Does this provide an opportunity for Iran to govern itself without rebuilding the nation's government?

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Agreed. Stupid is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. American administrations frequently excel at being stupid.

What would be your approach to addressing/resoloving the Iranian conflict?

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Because that worked so well for the US in Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan, just to name a few.

In all those cases, politics and not military was the hampering factor.

 

[RiffRaff]

In all those cases, politics and not military was the hampering factor.

True. But do you think Iran is any different?

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

But do you think Iran is any different?

Not at all. We are seeing politics affect it right now.

 

[william]

Question, because various countries are telling their citizens to prepare is it possible iran has crossed the threshold to nuclear WMD and they know it? What should the US do if iran does a nuclear test? Total war or you win, you are now a nuclear armed state?

Is it possible that that clip I posted about "duck and cover" iranian media supposedly put out at pickaxe is not about the US bombing it but that they are planning a test there. Satellites have picked up allot of activity there.

Is it possible putin, kim and xi either gave them a warhead or helped them build one, for testing only? They might assume that because the west did nothing when NK went nuclear, they wouldn't do anything if iran does?

This is a great power struggle between east and west and the people are caught in the middle. Welcome to "cold war 2.0!"

Buy some more beans!

 

[RiffRaff]

Is it possible putin, kim and xi either gave them a warhead or helped them build one, for testing only? They might assume that because the west did nothing when NK went nuclear, they wouldn't do anything if iran does?

There was an established link between Iran and DPRK even before DPRK conducted their first test. Iranian nuclear scientists were present in North Korea working with North Korean nuclear scientists. If a warhead was sold or given to Iran, it most likely came from North Korea. Putin and Xi might provide assistance, but I can't see them actually providing a live warhead.

 

[Peter Griffin]

True. But do you think Iran is any different?

The main difference is it would be a tactical nightmare to invade Iran compared to any of those other conflicts. Statistics do not support a successful protracted military conflict with Iran. So we not only would be politically screwed into a loss like our past experiences, but we would be facing a vastly different enemy that has had decades to prepare for layered asymmetrical defense and a much larger standing army, along with covert networks abroad. The room for escalation has grown as well comparative to those conflicts, we don't necessarily face the same China or Russia that we faced in Korea/Vietnam. We are dealing with powerbrokers that are largely willing to provide advanced systems and targeting information that can be laterally dispersed without giving a clear picture of the level of support we are facing. We aren't dealing with the massive shipments of arms and soldiers heading over the Yalu River that can be sourced clearly for newspapers, as casus belli to enter the war. The United States has not responded with a measured response to the Iranian issue of enrichment for decades, while ignoring it's own responsibilities/blame for that situation existing in the first place. I should mention that I do agree with you, I just think Iran is a bit more of a unique circumstance given their capabilities. I think a good summation of what both sides use as their go to approach to each other is called DARVO in domestic relationships.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Question, because various countries are telling their citizens to prepare is it possible iran has crossed the threshold to nuclear WMD and they know it?

i think they are more worried about Russia.

 

[teekay99]

Wonder why the US is waiting until after the election. Would it really make a difference in the expected outcome?

Maybe the announcement is designed to provoke activity in Iran. If Iran thinks an attack is imminent, they might make defensive preparations that US and defence intelligence agencies can track/monitor. Such preparation /movement might give up the location of a high value target.

Then again, the US administration has previously stated a big attack is imminent only to reverse course. So Iran might be numb to this game...

 

[Librarylady]

It's also possible that Israel will attack later this week and the US will follow up with an attack this weekend. Regardless of what either administration has been saying.